The Colorado Excellence Gap

1. The Colorado Excellence Gap Dr. Jonathan A. Plucker CAGT Annual Conference October 11, 2011

3. “Two Subways, Dad.”

4. Center for Evaluation andEducation Policy (CEEP) • CEEP promotes and supports rigorous program evaluation and nonpartisan policy research primarily, but not exclusively, for education, human service and non-profit organizations. • In the area of K-12 education policy, CEEP’s mission is to help inform, influence and shape sound policy through effective, nonpartisan research and analysis. • For more information about CEEP, go to: http://ceep.indiana.edu

5. What is the Excellence Gap? • There has been a lot of focus on minimum competency achievement gaps • the overall average gaps at low to medium levels of performance between demographic groups • Comparatively little attention to gaps in performance among high ability students • In a good educational system we should see both equity AND excellence • Plenty of evidence this can happen

6. Super Awesome Quote! • Education systems that fail to develop the potential of students from every background can make claims to neither quality nor equality.

7. Recent Fordham Study • 57% of 90th percentile students in ES/MS math (G3-G8) stayed “high fliers” using NWEA data. • As did 56% in reading. • At MS/HS level, 70% were “high fliers” throughout the study in math, 52% in reading. • Students moved from the 50th-89th percentiles into the High Flier range more often than students dropped down. • Growth was similar for all achievement groups, except for slower growth in reading for the High Fliers • See edexcellence.net

8. Why Should We Care? • Life prospects of students from disadvantaged backgrounds • Equity of the Educational System • Shouldn’t there be roughly the same percentage of high-performing students from every background? • Is minimum competency really enough? • International Competitiveness

9. A Widening Excellence Gap 45%! Not 45%! TIMSS may be a better international assessment on which to base policy, since it samples by grade and not age and is similar in many ways to NAEP. Both in absolute and relative terms, it is clear the U.S. is at a huge disadvantage.

10. Measuring the Excellence Gap Percent Scoring at the Highest Level For example … Free and Reduced Lunch (FARM) : 6% Advanced Non-Free and Reduced Lunch (Non-FARM) : 15% Advanced 15% - 6% = Excellence Gap of 9% Can also measure using scores at a given high percentile, say the student at the 90th percentile (better for statistical reasons when tracking trends)

11. Excellence Gaps Using the NAEP • The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) scored on a 0-500 point scale • Roughly every two years by the U.S. Department of Education • Performance Levels are Determined by Cut-Scores (Basic, Proficient, Advanced) • Math Grade 4: 282 • Math Grade 8: 333 • Reading Grade 4: 268 • Reading Grade 8: 323

12. 2009 NAEP Math Results • In both Grade 4 and 8, a much smaller percentage of low-income, minority, and English-Language learner students score at the “Advanced” level on the NAEP

13. 2009 NAEP Reading Results • There are also large excellence gaps in Reading for FARM, Black, Hispanic, and ELL students

14. Summary of 2009 NAEP • There are large gaps in the advanced achievement of under-represented groups relative to their peers on multiple assessments Race/Ethnicity Socioeconomic Status English Language Learners • These populations are growing as a share of all students • These high potential students cannot “take care of themselves.”

15. trends

16. % Advanced in Math Grade 4 GOOD NOT GREAT NCLB BAD EMBARRASSINGLY HORRIBLE APOCALYPTICALLY BAD

17. % Advanced in Reading Grade 8 NCLB BAD EMBARRASSINGLY HORRIBLE APOCALYPTICALLY BAD

18. Trends in Reading Grade 4at the 90th Percentile 23.0 28.2 20.6 24.4

19. Long-Term Trends in the Excellence Gap • If we go back before the passage of NCLB, there isn’t much evidence that the gaps are shrinking • In 2009 the numbers for ELL students were especially discouraging, giving back most if not all previous gains over the last dozen years.

20. NAEP Math Grade 4 Gap Trends Roughly 2-3 grade levels.

21. NAEP Math Grade 8 Gap Trends

22. NAEP Reading Grade 4 Gap Trends

23. NAEP Reading Grade 8 Gap Trends

24. Worse Than It Looks • In many cases there has been very little change in overall performance • Some gaps have shrunk because white or non-FARM scores have declined • At the present rate, it would take decades (if ever) for the gaps to close.

25. Projected Trends in Reading Grade 4 2051 2060

26. A Distinct Problem • The Excellence Gap is not the same phenomenon as the achievement gap • Although achievement gaps are somewhat larger than excellence gaps, there are also closing more quickly and consistently • This is especially true for lower-income students during the NCLB era • (not that we’d call the rate achievement gaps are closing fast)

27. Achievement vs. Excellence Gaps, FARM students 2003-2009 Rising tide?

28. A Complicated Story • Focusing on race or income in isolation can give a misleading picture • Interaction of race & income • Changes in composition • For example the decline in Reading Grade 8 scores among White and FARM students since 2003 is almost entirely due to lower scores among lower-income Whites.

29. Reading G8 90th Percentile Trends Poor white students performing at similar levels to not-poor Hispanic and Black students ( )

30. More Evidence for the Excellence Gap Not “underrepresented”

31. What About Colorado? • Like the rest of the U.S., Colorado has substantial achievement gaps among advanced students … • … but better than average absolute performance

32. CO NAEP Percent Advancedin Reading Grade 4 - 2009 Good! Not so good

33. CSAP Grade 4 Reading 7 6

34. CSAP Grade 7 Reading 10 8

35. CSAP Grade 10 Reading 8 7

36. CSAP Grade 4 Math 23 20

37. CSAP Grade 7 Math 22 13

38. CSAP Grade 10 Math 6 3

39. CSAP Grade 4 Readingby Lunch Status 6 6

40. CSAP Grade 4 Math by Lunch Status 26 21

41. U.S. vs. ColoradoStandards for Advanced • Colorado has lower standards for qualifying as an advanced level of achievement. • A good example is Math Grade 4

42. CO State Test vs. NAEP Percent Advanced Grade 4 Math - 2009

43. % Advanced Math Grade 4 State vs. NAEP

44. But what CAN we do about it?

45. What is the Federal Government Doing?

46. What are States Doing? • Although some states have adopted a mandate to identify and serve gifted students and have appropriated money to do so: • Gifted education funds are very vulnerable due to the fiscal climate • Most gifted education funding and policy is still carried out at the state level, with a major effect on equity • There is no evidence that ANY state has figured out a way to address Excellence Gaps, and many states have laughably low criteria for what constitutes an Advanced student

47. % Advanced Math Grade 4 State vs. NAEP

48. Recommendation #1 • Make Closing the Excellence Gap a State and National Priority • Expose people to the data • That which is not visible is by definition invisible. • Stop pretending the U.S. is “post-racial” or “beyond class distinctions” • Much criticism of G/T programs is deserved.

49. Recommendation #2 • Policymakers and educators should ask two questions: • How will this impact advanced students? • How will this help more students perform at advanced levels?

50. Recommendations #3 and #4 • Acknowledge That Both Minimum Competency and Excellence Can be Addressed At the Same Time • Other countries acknowledge this, why can’t we? • Set Realistic Goal to Shrink Gaps • We’re not getting every subgroup to 10% advanced in every content area any time soon.