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The Rebound Effect: An Analysis of the Empirical Data for Lighting. Decades-to-Centuries Rebound Effect. 1 Consumption of 2 Affordability of 3 Relationship between. Solid-State Lighting. White Light. Color Mixing Optics. RYGB Light Emitting Diodes.

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the rebound effect an analysis of the empirical data for lighting
The Rebound Effect:An Analysis of the Empirical Data for Lighting

Decades-to-Centuries Rebound Effect

1 Consumption of

2 Affordability of

3 Relationship between

Solid-State Lighting

White Light

Color Mixing Optics

RYGB

Light Emitting

Diodes

Jeff Tsao (Sandia National Laboratories)

Paul Waide (International Energy Agency)

Harry Saunders (Decision Processes Incorporated)

Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

per capita consumption of light mlmh per yr
per capita Consumption of Light:φ(Mlmh/[per-yr])

Fouquet & Pearson

UK

2000 Inc+Flu+HID: 46.4

1950 Inc: 5.0

1900 Gas+Ker: 0.27

1850 Gas+Can: 0.013

1800 Can+Oil: 0.0027

1750 Can: 0.0006

1700 Can: 0.00058

IEA

FSU 2000: 38.7

IEA

JP+KR 2005: 71.9

IEA

OECD-EU 2005: 45.9

CN

Li 2006: 16.4

IEA 2005: 13.4

Mills 1993: 2.7

Navigant

US 2001: 136

Mills

WRLD-NONGRID 1999: 0.043

IEA

AU+NZ 2005: 63.4

IEA

WRLD-GRID 2005: 32.9

Earth at Night (courtesy of NASA)

cost of light col mlmh coe

101.4

104.3

102.8

per capitagross domestic product:gdp ($/[per-yr]) = GDP/N

Cost of Light:CoL ($/Mlmh) ≃CoE/η

101.5

103

106

CN 2005

CN 2006

100%

Efficiency

105

WRLD-GRID 2005

104

102

105

WRLD-GRID 2005

US 2001

JP+KR 2005

OECD-EU 2005

103

FSU 2000

CN 1993

OECD-EU 2005

CN 2006

Luminous efficacy

η (lm/W)

US 2001

101

UK 2000

UK 1950

104

CN 2005

AU+NZ 2005

CN 1993

JP+KR 2005

GDP (B$/yr)

1

UK 2000

WRLD-NONGRID

1999

UK 1900

1

AU+NZ 2005

103

FSU

2000

UK 1850

101

UK 1950

UK 1900

UK 1800

WRLD-NONGRID

1999

UK 1750

10-1

102

UK 1850

UK 1700

After Maddison and Univ of Groningen purchase-power-parity tabulations,

in 2005 US$

102

UK 1800

103

104

105

UK 1750

10-2

101

UK 1700

1 101 102 103 104 105

10-3 10-2 10-1 1 101 102

CoE ($/MWh)

N (Bper)

gdp col
Consistent with φ having unit elasticity with respect to gdp and CoL

Over empirical data spanning many orders of magnitude

5.4 in φ

4.3 in CoL

1.4 in gdp

3 centuries

6 continents

5 technologies

φ = β·(gdp/CoL)

105.4

104

JP+KR 2005

AU+NZ 2005

OECD-EU 2005

SSL

US 2001

FSU 2000

UK 2000

WRLD-DEV 2005

101

CN 2006

HID

Fluorescent

Incandescent

UK 1950

CN 2005

CN 1993

φ [Mlmh/(per-yr)]

UK 1900

WRLD-UNDEV 1999

Gas

Kerosene

R2 = 0.986

10-2

UK 1800

UK 1850

Candles

UK 1700

UK 1750

10-5

10-5 10-2 101 104

β·gdp/CoL [Mlmh/(per-yr)]

0.0072