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Presented to: Nevada Rural Development Council America’s Energy Future-

Presented to: Nevada Rural Development Council America’s Energy Future- Role of Agricultural and Forestry Community December 1, 2006 Fallon, NV. 25x’25 Initiative. Renewable energy initiative born in the ag and forestry sectors Supported by the Energy Future Coalition

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Presented to: Nevada Rural Development Council America’s Energy Future-

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  1. Presented to: Nevada Rural Development Council America’s Energy Future- Role of Agricultural and Forestry Community December 1, 2006 Fallon, NV

  2. 25x’25 Initiative Renewable energy initiative born in the ag and forestry sectors Supported by the Energy Future Coalition Seeks to forge consensus on a new energy future Focuses on economic, national security and environmental benefits

  3. 25x’25 Vision: By the year 2025, America’s farms, ranches and forests will provide 25 percent of the total energy consumedin the U.S. from renewable resources while continuing to produce safe, abundant and affordable food, feed and fiber. 25x’25

  4. ENERGY SECURITY Reduced oil consumption ECONOMIC GROWTH Increased farm income Reduced farm subsidies Good new jobs in rural America Reduced trade deficit ENVIRONMENT Assist in soil, air, & water quality issues 25x’25 Opportunity

  5. RAND analysis of impacts on national energy expenditures, CO2 emissions University of Tennessee forecast of impacts on agriculture sector Energy Future Coalition Commissioned 2 Studies of 25x’25

  6. Skeptics say renewable energy: Won’t amount to anything Costs too much In fact, renewable energy: Can supply 25% of U.S. needs Could cost less than business as usual Why Do These Studies?

  7. The RAND Study • RAND analyzed effect of 25% renewables (for electricity and motor vehicle fuels) by 2025 • 18% of total U.S. energy demand • Not included: • Direct industrial use of fuels • Natural gas in buildings • Off-road mobile sources • Railroad or jet fuel applications • 1,500 scenarios, reflecting a wide range of possible assumptions about technology and energy cost trends Not for attribution - Not for distribution - Do not quote or cite

  8. RAND Findings • 2 key factors influence outcomes: • Renewable energy technology and prices • Fossil fuel technology and energy prices Not for attribution - Not for distribution - Do not quote or cite

  9. RAND Findings • RAND found that implementing 25x’25 would have no net cost to the economy if: • Renewable energy costs decline by at least 20% by 2025, consistent with recent experience • Long-term oil prices do not fall significantly below the range projected by DOE • In many cases,25x’25 is actually cheaper than continuing on our current track • The expenditure reductions are proportionately even greater on the way to 25x’25 • Results of 10x’15 and 20x’20 are positive over even broader range of scenarios Not for attribution - Not for distribution - Do not quote or cite

  10. RAND: Environmental Benefits • 1 billion ton reduction in CO2 emissions • 15% of projected U.S. emissions • 67% of projected growth in emissions • Electricity sector emissions return to 2004 levels by 2025 • Reduced emissions or reduced cost of meeting pollution caps • SO2, NOx, mercury, fine particulates Not for attribution - Not for distribution - Do not quote or cite

  11. Our Conclusion The 25x’25 Opportunity: CAN BE BIG 25% of total energy consumption in electricity and motor fuels CAN BE CHEAPER THAN CURRENT TRACK If NREL’s 45% projected renewable technology improvement occurs HAS OTHER BENEFITS Reduced petroleum use CO2 reductions Technologies for a new energy future

  12. Univ. of Tennessee Study Objectives Determine the ability of America’s farms, forests and ranches to provide 25% of U.S. total energy needs in 2025 Assess the economic impacts of achieving the 25x’25 goal on the ag sector and the overall economy

  13. Study Results America’s farms, forests and ranches can play a significant role in meeting the country’s energy needs. The 25x’25 goal can be met while continuing to provide safe, abundant and affordable food, feed and fiber.

  14. By 2025, America’s farms, forests and ranches can annually produce: 86 billion gallons of ethanol 1.1 billion gallons of biodiesel 932 billion kwh of electricity 15.45 quads of energy from biomass

  15. Impacts on National Economy in 2025 Economic $700 billion Activity Jobs 5.1 million

  16. 25x’25: Is achievable Has a positive impact on the national and rural economies Reduces our reliance on foreign oil and improves national security Provides important environmental benefits

  17. How to get to a 25x’25 world: Second meeting held in Denver end of Sept. Recommendations from Work Groups forthcoming Expect report to Congress in Feb. 2007 25x’25 Implementation Planning

  18. www.25x25.org Tracee Bentley tbentley@25x25.org

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