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Why do Populations Rise or Fall in Particular Places?

2 nd Key Question:. Why do Populations Rise or Fall in Particular Places?. A Population Bomb?. Thomas Malthus: English clergyman (1798- Essays on the Principle of Population) Population grows exponentially- 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.)

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Why do Populations Rise or Fall in Particular Places?

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  1. 2nd Key Question: Why do Populations Rise or Fall in Particular Places?

  2. A Population Bomb? • Thomas Malthus: English clergyman (1798- Essays on the Principle of Population) • Population grows exponentially- 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.) • Food supplies (resources) grow linerally(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.) • Result being mass starvation unless population is brought back in balance • Malthusian “checks” on population: wars, famines, epidemics- want to avoid them? Must limit population voluntarily • So… don’t help the poor- it will only make more of them • Today- ideas held by Neo-Malthusians

  3. More Theories • Karl Marx- German social philosopher (1818-1883) • Poverty results from capitalistic inequalities (unequal distribution of resources), so, adopt socialism • Population growth = greater production of economic commodities, thus better life for all, • Did not pan out where applied (Soviet Union And China) • Esther Boserup- agricultural economist (1965) • Population growth stimulates greater intensity in effort and therefore greater amount of food • Is therefore the stimulant of agricultural development (not the result) • Cornucopian theory- • disdains the notion that there are natural limits to growth • Believes planet can hold an endless number of human beings and provide a limitless abundance of natural resources. (even petroleum) • sometimes called Anti-Malthusians

  4. 0 CE- < 300 million 1650- 500 million 1850- 1 billion 1930- 2 billion 1960- 3 billion 1976- 4 billion 1987- 5 billion 1999- 6 billion Today: 6.6 Billion Why? Plagues, epidemics, undependable food supplies, poor sanitation, inadequate medical treatment, warfare led to high IMR, MMR and low ALE Improvements in the above (especially food supplies and medical care) led to dramatic population increases Impacting events: Neolithic revolution European exploration Industrial revolution Urbanization World Population Growth

  5. The Demographic Transition in Great Britain • Studied the change in birth rates, death rates, and natural growth rates over the course of British industrialization. • Found a transition occurred when death rates decline and then birth rates decline, resulting in a low or sustained growth rate.

  6. The Demographic Transition

  7. The Stages • Stage 1: High birth and death rates (“high stationary” ) • True of all human populations until late 18th century • Stage 2: falling death rates make a rise in population • Improvements in food supply and public health » Falling IMR • Deals with a “population explosion” • Stage 3: birth rates begin to fall • Increasing urbanization; increasing female literacy & employment (Female education = #1 factor in lowering BR) • Better medical care/ sanitation (water): Lower IMR » lower CBR; improvements in contraceptive technology • Stage 4: low birth and death rates (“low stationary”) • Birth rates have fallen to replacement levels (2 children/ couple), and population has restabilized. • Stage 5: ZPG or negative growth • Birth rates have fallen below replacement level

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