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Decoding TC Track Forecasting and Cone of Uncertainty

Understand the Fujiwhara effect, track forecasting models, cone of uncertainty, and more to navigate tropical cyclone predictions accurately. Learn about Binary interaction, steering, ensemble models, and statistical tools. Stay informed to mitigate risks effectively.

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Decoding TC Track Forecasting and Cone of Uncertainty

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  1. Fujiwhara – Binary (TC to TC) interaction • Happens on average more than once a year in NW PAC, every 3 years in Atlantic • Distance of mutual influence depends on size of TCs, but 1300-1400 km (700-750 nmi) seems to be critical distance • Orbit around a centroid, cyclonically, orbital speed inversely related to separation distance

  2. Track Forecasting • All of the motion effects together add up to resultant motion • Steering • β-effect, environmental vorticity, Fujiwhara • Shear • Size/Strength

  3. Models • Extrapolation (XTRP) – simply continuing past 12 hour motion • Simplified Dynamical Track Models • Beta and Advection (BAMD, BAMM, BAMS) • The Global Models • GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, ECMWF • Regional (GFDL, GFDN, HWRF) • Customized for TC forecasting • Limited by domain size and time range • Nested • Sometimes accurately forecast intensity changes • Statistical • Track: CLIPER (climatology and persistence) • Intensity: SHIPS • Uses environment parameters from, e.g., GFS • Ensembles and Consensus

  4. Model Spaghetti(Includes Consensus Models) Current Link

  5. The Cone • Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. • How the NHC gets the cone: To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. • The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles. • And yet, it is still way too big most of the time.

  6. Cone of Uncertainty

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