Sept 9 – Polling and Voting

Sept 9 – Polling and Voting Agenda: • Quick-write • Ideology • Voter Turn Out • Enrolling in MyPoliSciLab • Polling Consultant • Push Polling Take out: • Notebook • Pen/Pencil Homework: • Page 307-318 • Begin Chapter 9SG

Quick-write • What are the major ideological differences between liberals and conservatives?

LIBERALS • Favor active central government with social and economic responsibilities • Favor peaceful political and social change within the existing political system • Economically tend to favor: • strong positive action to solve the nation's problems • more equal distribution of wealth • regulation of big business • programs that promote equality(welfare, social programs) • Opposes increases in defense spending and military actions, prayer in school, tax breaks for the wealthy. • Socially, liberals favor: • small government(less likely to abridge individual freedoms) except action to protect civil rights

CONSERVATIVES • Favor limited government and freedom of the private sector • Approach change cautiously • Economically,most often support • less active government (oppose redistribution of wealth, support free market) • Favor reduced taxes • Oppose affirmative action and spending on social programs • Socially, conservatives favor • large role for the government (security,policing, national defense) • moral standards, protect "family values”, oppose abortion

Quick Check 1: • Who is more likely to vote for a conservative candidate? Why? • White, evangelical minister • African-American Baptist minister • Cuban immigrant living in Florida working minimum wage • Middle-class Hispanic-American housewife

Quick Check 2: • Who is most likely to vote for a liberal candidate? • Upper income Jewish male rabbi • Lower income African-American mother • Middle income Asian American protestant high school student • White male who did not graduate from high school

Enrolling in Mypoliscilab • Follow the instructions on the handout

You are a Polling Consultant • Select the resources for our text • Click on “student resources” • Select “simulations” • Select simulation #11 “You are a Polling Consultant”

Push Poll • Operates under the guise of a legitimate survey to spread lies, rumors and innuendos about candidates. • Survey containing questions which attempt to change the opinion of contacted voters. • Increase negativity regarding candidates • Based on potentially legitimate information • Test a voter – inform regarding virtues and vices that might not be known. • Add info question by question to test commitment and to assess which issues might push a voter away from their initial choice

Examples of push polling • “If you learned that [Candidate A] has voted for six tax increases in the state legislature, would this make you more or less likely to support her?” • “If you learned that [Candidate B] opposes a woman’s right to choose an abortion, would this make you more or less likely to support him?” • “Would you still support this person if you learned that he is [a tax evader, a baby killer, or shoots newborn puppies for sport]?”

Negative Persuasion Phoning: • Hello, my name is _______ calling from the Citizens for Tax Fairness. I am calling to remind you that unlike thousands of your fellow citizens, Jeb Bush failed to pay local and state taxes and he has profited at the taxpayers’ expense from business deals involving failed savings and loan properties. Mr. Bush doesn’t play by the same rules like the rest of us and we want to make sure you are aware of this before you cast your vote on Tuesday. Thank you and have a good day/evening.

Voter Turn Out How to get to the polls

Historical qualifications • Religion (eliminated by states) • Property (eliminated by states) • Race (eliminated by 15th Amendment) • Sex (eliminated by 19th Amendment) • Income (eliminated by 24th Amendment) • Literacy (eliminated by Voting Rights Act of 1965) • Minimum Age of 21 (eliminated by 26th Amendment)

Current Qualifications • ALL SET BY STATES!! • Citizenship, residency, age, registration

What

Comparison • US • ~50% in presidential elections • ~30—40% in midterm elections • Even lower in state elections • Declining since 1960 • Western European • ~90% turn out rate

Comparison • We have no compulsory voting • No fines, no same day registration, dual party system allows for fewer choice

Reasons for Low Turn Out • Institutional Barriers • How many can you name?

Answers. . . • Registration • Ballot Fatigue • Excessive # of Elections • Type of election • Difficulty of Attaining absentee ballot • Age—youth are the worst

Reasons for Low Turn Out • Political Reasons: • Lack of political efficacy • Dissatisfaction with candidates, parties, etc. • Lack of strong 2 party competition • Weaknesses of parties in mobilizing voters

Voter Behavior Factors Affecting

Democrat Republican Democrat + Swing Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican

Geography, Time • Solid South—traditionally Democratic, trending Republican • Coattail effect • Critical Elections “realigning” • Long term change in political alignment

Party ID • Probably second strongest predictor of voting behavior • Split ticket voting • Independents • Rising quickly • Tend to be young, college educated, above average incomes Retrospective/Prospective Voting

Who votes, Who doesn’t, Who cares? • Characteristics of those likely to vote • Level of educational achievement greatest predictor of voting • Cuts across all other factors • Income—rich vs. poor • Age—older vote more than young • Race—whites more likely than African Americans more likely than Hispanics

Who votes, Who doesn’t, Who cares? • Does it matter? • Yes—class bias—older, richer, white people dominate • No—nonvoters are demographically different, not politically different

Demographics • Sex • Female / male = Dem, GOP • Race • More likely to vote Dem, African Americans—most loyal Dem voters • Social Class • Upper = GOP; Lower = Dem • Religion • Protestant = GOP; Catholic = Dem; Jewish = Dem.

Sept 9 – Polling and Voting