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Advanced Weather Forecasting Methods and Tools

Discover the intricate world of weather forecasting using sophisticated methods and cutting-edge tools. From the acquisition of weather information to prediction techniques, explore how meteorologists utilize data from satellites, radar, and land-based stations to generate accurate forecasts. Delve into the processes of numerical weather prediction, satellite observations, and the movement of weather systems using surface charts. Gain insights into the advancements that have revolutionized the field of meteorology and improved forecast accuracy.

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Advanced Weather Forecasting Methods and Tools

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  1. Weather Forecasting

  2. Acquisition of Weather Information 10,000 land-based stations, hundreds of ships and buoys; four times a day, airports hourly Upper level: radiosonde, aircraft, satellites United Nations World Meteorological Organization, 175 countries World Meteorological Centers: Melbourne, Moscow, Washington D.C. NCEP, US NWS ASOS

  3. Weather Forecasting Tools • Topics: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories • Advisories: potential hazardous conditions; wind, wind chill, heat, urban and small stream, snow, dense fog (likely) • Watch: atmospheric conditions favoring hazardous weather over a region in time, actual location and time not known; flash flood, severe thunderstorm, tornado, hurricane (more likely) • Warning: imminent or occurring hazardous weather over a region in time; high wind, heat, flash flood, severe storm, tornado, hurricane, winter storm, blizzard, gale, storm (very likely)

  4. Weather Forecasting Tools High speed data modeling systems (AWIPS): communication, storage, processing, and display Doppler radar Satellite imagery Forecast charts Soundings Meteograms Wind profiles

  5. Fig. 9-1, p. 247

  6. Fig. 9-2, p. 247

  7. Fig. 9-3, p. 249

  8. Fig. 9-4, p. 250

  9. Weather Forecasting Tools • Satellite Observations • Geostationary, polar orbiting • Visible light provides a black and white picture of clouds • Infrared approximates cloud temperature which infers height • Satellites measure many other variables: sea surface temperatures, ozone, upper level features, snow cover, land cover

  10. Fig. 9-5, p. 250

  11. Fig. 9-6, p. 251

  12. Fig. 9-7, p. 251

  13. Fig. 9-8, p. 252

  14. Fig. 9-9a, p. 252

  15. Fig. 9-9b, p. 252

  16. Fig. 9-10, p. 253

  17. Fig. 9-11, p. 253

  18. Fig. 9-12, p. 254

  19. Weather Forecasting Methods • 1950s maps, charts plotted by hand • Numerical weather prediction • Solves equations using gridded data • Final chart called analysis • 24 hr forecast for the N Hemisphere requires millions of calculations • Resolution • Guidance/ rules of thumb

  20. Fig. 9-13, p. 255

  21. Fig. 9-13a, p. 255

  22. Fig. 9-13b, p. 255

  23. Fig. 9-14, p. 255

  24. Weather Forecasting Methods • Why Forecasts Go Awry • Assumptions • Models not global • Regions with few observations • Cannot model small-scale features • All factors cannot be modeled • Ensemble Forecasts: • Spaghetti model, robust • Observation: Weathercasters • Chroma key or color separation

  25. Fig. 9-15, p. 257

  26. Weather Forecasting Methods • Other Forecasting Techniques • Persistence • Trend • Analogue • Statistical • Weather type • Climatological

  27. Table 9-1, p. 259

  28. Fig. 9-16, p. 260

  29. Fig. 9-17, p. 261

  30. Weather Forecasting Methods • Types of Forecasts • Now cast <6 hrs • Short range 12-65 hrs • Medium range 3-8.5 days • Long Range >8.5 days • Accuracy and Skill • 12-24 hrs most accurate, 2-5 days good • Skill = more accurate than a forecast utilizing persistence of climatology

  31. Fig. 9-18, p. 262

  32. Fig. 9-18a, p. 262

  33. Fig. 9-18b, p. 262

  34. Weather Forecasting Using Surface Charts Movement of Weather Systems • Mid-lat cyclones move in same direction and speed as previous 6 hrs • Lows move in direction parallel the isobars in the warm air ahead of the cold front • Lows move toward region of greatest pressure drop

  35. Table 9-2, p. 265

  36. Weather Forecasting Using Surface Charts • Forecast Data collected… • Augusta GA • Washington DC • Chicago • Memphis • Dallas • Denver

  37. Fig. 9-20, p. 266

  38. Fig. 9-21, p. 267

  39. Stepped Art Fig. 9-22, p. 267

  40. Isobars • Isobars: lines of constant pressure • A line drawn on a weather map connecting points of equal pressure is called an isobar

  41. Fig. 9-23, p. 269

  42. El Nino & La Nina • Affects sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean-El Niño is characterized by unusually warm temperatures and La Niña by unusually cool temperatures • A strong El Niño is often associated with wet winters over the southeastern US, as well as drought in Indonesia and Australia • A strong El Niño can last a year or more before conditions return to normal and can occur every 3 to 7 years

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