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Weather Forecasting Analysis and Reflections: Assignment 2 Overview by Jayelle Hegewald

In this analysis, I discuss my weather forecasting assignment conducted for Louisville, KY (KSDF). On September 30, I gathered data predicting weather conditions for October 2 at noon. Upon reviewing the situation 48 hours later, I found no significant weather disturbances during the forecast window. Notably, actual precipitation occurred later than predicted, emphasizing the challenges of accurate forecasting. Through this assignment, I gained insights into meteorological tools like Doppler radar and infrared data, enhancing my understanding of weather prediction complexities and the difficulties faced by meteorologists.

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Weather Forecasting Analysis and Reflections: Assignment 2 Overview by Jayelle Hegewald

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  1. Weather Forecasting Eportfolio assignment 2 met 1010-044 Jayelle Hegewald

  2. The forecast • I gathered the first map on Sunday evening, September 30 at 2300, with an effective time of 1200 on Tuesday, October 2 at KSDF, the airport code for Louisville, KY.

  3. The result

  4. The result • When I checked back in 48 hours, it appeared that there were no significant weather disturbances during the time frame forecasted on the map (Tuesday 1200) that I collected on Sunday evening.

  5. The result • The available Doppler and infrared data that I found were past the effective time of noon, and were into the next day, universal time. However, according to the data I collected, there was observable weather and precipitation, but it happened about 15-17 hours after the forecasted weather. The Doppler and Infrared data show that a small amount of measurable precipitation was actually calculated at about 5 AM on October 3, while the 48 hour forecast had forecasted the precipitation for noon the previous day.

  6. Forecasting tools Doppler radar infrared

  7. reflection • Reflection: • As a result of completing this assignment, I have learned how to read a few of the tools that meteorologists use on a daily basis. Watching the news reports on TV has a whole new meaning now, and it is a little easier to give the meteorologists a break when they are wrong. It is a hard job to be able to determine when and where weather will hit based on the information that is available. There are many factors which can influence the outcome of a weather system, and from this exercise, I feel that I understand those factors more fully.

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