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Project Title: The Sensitivity of the Global Water and Energy Cycles:

Project Title: The Sensitivity of the Global Water and Energy Cycles: An Integrated Assessment of Models and Observations Project team: B.J. Soden (b.soden@miami.edu), V.O. John, (vojohn@rsmas.miami.edu). Project status: Year 1 & 2 complete –

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Project Title: The Sensitivity of the Global Water and Energy Cycles:

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  1. Project Title: The Sensitivity of the Global Water and Energy Cycles: An Integrated Assessment of Models and Observations Project team: B.J. Soden (b.soden@miami.edu), V.O. John, (vojohn@rsmas.miami.edu) • Project status: • Year 1 & 2 complete – • John, V. O. and B. J. Soden, 2006: Does convectively-detrained cloud ice enhance water vapor feedback?Geophys. Res. Lett. , 33, L20701,. • Held, I.M. and B.J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19(14), 3354-3360 • John, V.O. and B.J. Soden, 2007: Temperature and humidity biases in global climate models and their impacts on climate feedbacks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L18605, doi:10.1029/2007GL030736. • Allan, R.P. and B.J. Soden, 2007: Large discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation trends in the ascending and descending branches of the tropical circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L18705. • John, V.O. and B.J. Soden, 2008: Variability of tropical water and energy cycles in climate models and observations,Geophys. Res. Lett., in preparation. • Year 3 (now) – Compare daily precipitation extremes from SSMI and climate model simulations. • Year 4&5: Focus on model-to-satellite methodology for directly comparing model-simulated and satellite observed microwave Tb. Science issue: The ability of climate models to reproduce observed variations and linkages between the atmospheric water and energy cycles at large time and space scales. Approach: Compare satellite-observed and model-simulated changes in water vapor, cloud, precipitation and . Satellite-based data: AIRS, TRMM, SSMI, ISCCP, ERBE/CERES, MLS. Other data: GPCP, CMAP, NCEP/ECMWF Reanalyses Models: IPCC AR4 GCMs (AMIP, A1b, 20C3M) Study Particulars: 1980-2006. Detrended time series of the anomalies of different components of hydrologic and energy cycle. Tropical (±30 latitudes) ocean data points were area weighted for each month to obtain the time series. Shown are a) precipitation rate, b) total precipitable water vapor, c) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), d) net surface longwave radiation, e) net surface shortwave radiation, and f) 200-hPa atmospheric temperature. The multi-model ensemble is plotted with black line and the shaded region around is ± one standard deviation of inter-model variability. From John and Soden (2008). NEWS linkages: (pull, push, collaborate, external) Wentz/Adler – Precipitation, Ocean heat flux products. Wielicki, L’Ecuyer, Rossow, – TOA/Surface Energy Fluxes. Fetzer – AIRS Temperature, humidity profiles. Contributes to IPCC AR4 Assessment of climate models. Addresses GEWEX-Radiation analysis of precip radiation fluxes. Updated: April 11, 2008

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