Displacement Dynamics in Mali and Senegal: Effects of Climate Change and Land Degradation on Migration Decisions

1. Climate Change, land degradation and migration in Mali and Senegal and their policy impacts Diana Hummel & Victoria van der Land “The Hamburg Conference: Actions for Climate Induced Migration” Hamburg, 16–18 July 2013

2. Project „migration, climate change & environment in the Sahel“ (micle) • Cooperation partners • ISOE – Institute for social-ecological research (Project coordination) • Geographical Institute, University of Bayreuth • Partners in Mali und Senegal • Point Sud - Center for Research on Local Knowledge, Bamako, Mali • LARTES - Laboratoire de Recherche sur les Transformations Economiques et Sociales, Université de Dakar, Senegal Duration: September 2010 - April 2014

3. Overall Objective & Research Question • Analysis of interactions between climate change, land degradation and migration in Sahelian regions Senegal and Mali • motives for migration and patterns thereof • local population‘s perception and evaluation of climate and environmental changes • role of climate and environmental changes in migration decisions • What are the specific social-ecological conditions under which migration takes place and how are these conditions impacted by climate and environmental changes?

4. Project Design: Inter- & transdisciplinary Approach • Methodology that integrates natural-scientific and social-scientific insights, as well as scientific & non-scientific knowledge • In-depth study at local and regional level • Identification of policy options (orientation knowledge)

5. General Hypotheses • Specificsocial-ecologicalconditionsconstitutethecontextformigrationdecisions • Migration resultsfrominterplayingfactors on different scales • Migration ispath-dependent, multi-causal, multi-directional and selective • Temporal & circularmigrationas an established and successfulstrategytocopewithclimatevariablity and as integral partofsocietalaction • Environmental conditionscanimpactmobility, environmental changescanbeonefactorforchanges in mobilitystructures

6. Methods - Social-empirical analysis • Survey: 900 interviews with individuals in Bandiagara and Linguére and in Bamako and Dakar • Ca. 120 qualitative Interviews • Expert interviews • Focus groups • Participatory observation • Joint fieldwork of natural & social scientists

7. Physio-Geographical Analysis Temporal-spatialpatternsofclimatevariability (temperature, precipitation) & vegetationchanges Methods • Comparison & evaluationofexistingclimatedata and localisation • Long-term time series and high resolution time series • Validation ofchangeswithhigherresolutionsystems (Landsat, Rapideye) • On-site field work: Groundtruthing, interviewswithlocalinhabitants

8. Study Regions Linguère & Bandiagara • High population mobility, migration deficit • Increasing rainfall variability and land degradation

9. Focus on Land Degradation Reduction of biological productivity of dryland ecosystems & degradation of ecosystem services as result of natural processes & human activities • Study areas characterized by • decreasing soil productivity and reduced biodiversity • decrease of agricultural production • food insecurity • increased livestock numbers • deforestation, shortage of fuelwood • phenomena of „greening“

10. Local Representations of Climate & Environment: Rainfall • Amounts of rainfall today lower than in the 1960s, rising precipiation in past 20 years • Upward trends for the last 5 years & very abundant rainfalls in 2009/2010: very good harvests (ML; SN), but also flooding & crop failure (ML) • Not only quantity, but distribution & timing of rainfall important: uncertain start & end of rainy season, heavy rainfalls increasing, persisting moisture on fields • Other factors for good harvests: access to seeds, fertilizer, availability of land, labor force

11. Migration Patterns – Spatial Dimension Migration is predominantly internal or regional • Internal migration prevails - to cities capitals - Mali: also to rural destinations in the South • Few international/regional migration to • Europe, USA & Gulf States more common inLinguère, rare in Bandiagara • Abidjan/Cote d‘Ivoire mostimportant destination for migrants from Bandiagara

12. Survey: (Non-)Governmental Supports and Migration Experience

13. Suvey: Attitudes towards migration policies Governmental Action More than 50% are in favor of encouragement of migration, but almost half of respondents are for restrictive policies

14. Survey: Attitudes towards migration Great majority of respondents would advise family members to migrate

15. First results from survey • Most findings confirm existing studies • Migration characterized by • multitude of migration destinations and objectives/motives • „new obscurity“ of migration: rural-urban & seasonal migration prevails, but increasingly during the rainy season • internal & international migration patterns are intertwined and affected by translocal provisioning strategies • social networks are important for migration decisions & motives • significant increase of female migration (sometimes sanctioned) • Role of education leval & education as motive for migration • Climate variability • irregularity of rainfall considered as serious problem • bad harvests and food shortages are motives for migration

16. Policy impacts • Dealing with fragmented governance-systems in diverse policy-arenas • Multi-level governance necessary with focus on citizen‘s needs • Inreasing capabilities of the youth • Education (not only education level, but quality) • Labor in agriculture, industry, services • Environment & nature protection • Inclusive urban and regional development planning • Important instruments at national level • Development: Poverty reduction strategy papers (PRSP) • Climate & environment: National Action plans (NAPA) Implementation and ownership

17. References • Adamo, S.B. (2008): Addressing environmentally induced population displacements: A delicate task. Background Paper for the Population-Environment Research Network Cyberseminar “Environmentally Induced Population Displacements”, 18–29 August 2008 www.populationenvironmentresearch.org (2-21-2012) • Bilsborrow, R.E./ Henry, S.J.F. (2012): The use of survey data to study migration-environment relationships in developing countries: alternative approaches to data collection. Population and Environment 34, 113-141 • Black, R./D. Kniveton/R. Skeldon/D. Coppard/A. Murata/K. Schmidt-Verkerk (2008): Demographics and Climate Change: Future Trends and their Policy Implicationf for Migration. Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty. Brighton: University of Sussex • Doevenspeck, M. (2011): The Thin Line Between Choice and Flight: Environment and Migration in Rural Benin. International Migration, 49(S1): 50–68 • Findley, S.E. (1994): Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983–1985 drought. International Migration Review, 28(3): 539–553 • Foresight: Migration and Environmental Change (2011): Final Report. London: The Government Office for Science • Hummel, D. (Ed.) (2008): Population dynamics and supply systems. A transdisciplinary approach. Frankfurt/New York • Hummel, D.; Doevenspeck, M.; Samimi, C. (2012): Climate change, environment and migration in the Sahel. Selected issues with a focus on Senegal and Mali • Hummel, D.; van der Land, V. (in print): Vulnerability and the Role of Education in Environmentally Induced Migration in Mali and Senegal“. Ecolgy and Society • Piguet, E.; Pécoud, A.; de Guchteneire, P. (2011): Migration and Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press • Warner, K. (2011): Environmental change and migration: methodological considerations from ground-breaking global survey. Population and Environment 33: 3–27

18. Thank you much for your attention!