Migration Policy and Constitutional Change in Scotland

1. Migration Policy and Constitutional Change in Scotland David Bell (Stirling) Allan Findlay (St Andrews) David McCollum (St Andrews) Scott Tindal (St Andrews) Robert Wright (Strathclyde)

2. Outline • Migration policy and constitutional change in Scotland – an introduction • Constitutional change and migration policies – lessons from the research literature • Migration to and from Scotland • Immigrant characteristics - a comparative analysis of Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland • Scottish public attitudes to immigration • Scottish employers’ attitudes to immigration • Sub-national migration policies – the Quebec case • Policy implications for Scotland • Conclusions

3. Migration policy and constitutional change in Scotland – an introduction Introduction • Constitutional change debates on immigration policy tend to be artificially polarised. Reality is more nuanced. • Much can be learned from the experience of other small countries and from attempts at sub-national immigration policy • Our objectives and our evidence

4. Constitutional change and migration policies: lessons from the research literature • Tailoring an immigration policy for Scotland matters regardless of the outcome of the referendum • Immigration policies of small nations are nearly always strongly shaped by those of larger neighbours • A devolved federalism model offers one route to shaping migration

5. Our evidence base • Scottish Chambers of Commerce Survey (2013) of over 700 employers • In-depth interviews with 87 employers and recruitment agencies (2010/2011) • Analysis of the British & Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys • Analysis of the Annual Population Survey (2012) and the Labour Force Survey (2001-2013) • Recent field research in Latvia and Quebec

6. Migration to and from Scotland Figure 1: Estimated total (internal and international) net migration, Scotland 1951-2011 Figure 2: Proportion of usual residents that are foreign born, 2011

7. Immigrant characteristics Comparing Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland Shares of Resident Population by Country of Birth

8. Irish residents by country of birth

9. Wage rates (£ per hour)

10. Average age of employees

11. Proportion employed with degrees

12. Public attitudes towards migration • Scotland: relatively welcoming views… • However… • ⅓ prejudiced against people of other races • ⅓ believe ethnic minorities take jobs • ½ believe ethnic minorities pose threat to Scotland’s identity

13. Employer attitudes towards migration • Positive perceptions of migrants: work ethic, flexibility, skills & competence • Constitutional change debate… • Top business concerns; • Taxes, status in EU & currency (c. ⅔ of respondents) • Also: Labour regulation and visa & immigration law (c. ⅓ of respondents)

14. Importance of visa & immigration laws • Key sectors: Health & social care and hospitality & tourism

15. Employer perspectives: key issues • Openness of immigration policies (political considerations) “Immigration is a massively underestimated issue of importance in Scotland. I assume it doesn’t get a lot of political credence because it’s not really popular to stand up and say: ‘we need lots more immigrants’, but actually Scotland does need lots more immigrants” Inter-business organisation • Freedom of movement of labour (EU status, Schengen, CTA) “If my EU staff weren’t allowed to come and work in Scotland through EU regulation then that would be a big no-no” Recruitment firm, hospitality • Ability to attract talent (labour regulations, economy) “How easy would it be for workers to go from Scotland to England and vice versa to work, just now it’s the same taxation system etc but…?” Agricultural business “If any post referendum outcome limited freedom of movement, then that would be a risk because we are so dependent on the freedom of movement of people… and that constant throughput is what keeps universities so skilled and stocked with talented people” . Education sector representative

16. Sub-national migration policies: the Quebec case • Maximum points available under the Canada and Quebec immigration systems

17. Inter-provincial migration rates • Foreign-born versus native-born Canadians

18. Conclusions: Policy implications for Scotland • Moving towards a migration policy for Scotland is desirable, regardless of the outcome of the referendum • Major challenges in shaping a Scottish immigration policy include: • Scotland is a small labour market influenced/dominated by its nearest neighbour • Other small nations/sub-national areas tend to align their immigration policies in a way that accommodates larger neighbours. In Scotland’s case shaping influences would probably include the desire to : i) remain in the British Isles free travel area ii) maintain easy exchanges of labour with England (often involving intra-company moves), and iii) remain in the sterling currency area