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Climate change impacts and

Climate change impacts and. rural strategic planning. Dr. Jean-Philippe Aurambout Dr. Robert Faggian. Climate change: a complex problem. What we know well:. • Greenhouse gases and global warming • Observed climate is warming. Climate change projections and uncertainty

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Climate change impacts and

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  1. Climatechangeimpactsand ruralstrategicplanning Dr.Jean-PhilippeAurambout Dr.RobertFaggian

  2. Climatechange:acomplexproblem Whatweknowwell: •Greenhousegasesandglobalwarming •Observedclimateiswarming Climatechangeprojectionsanduncertainty •Climatemodelsandemissionscenariosofgreenhouse gases •DownscalingImpactmodelling

  3. Greenhousegases Moleculeswhichinterceptinfra-red radiationsandturnthemtoheat (since1896(Arrhenius)). Whatarethey? CO2,H2O,methane,N2O,CFC Theirconcentration intheatmospherehas increasedasaresult ofhumanactivities.

  4. Observedclimatechange Warmingoftheclimatesystemisunequivocal

  5. Climatemodels

  6. Climatemodels Greenhousegasemissionsfromhuman activitiesaremorethan90percentlikelyto havecausedmostoftheglobalwarmingsince themid-20thcentury(IPCCAR42007). “Consensusasstrongastheonethathas developedaroundthistopicisrareinscience. ”DonaldKennedy,formerEditor-In-Chief,Science.

  7. Emissionscenarios: projectingthefuture 1.1–1.8–2.9 2.4–4.0–6.4

  8. “Ourpresentscientificunderstandingofclimate change,althoughincomplete,issufficientlyrobustto informdecision-makingandaction”. Goalofthispresentation Provideexamplesofthedatathatiscurrentlyavailablefor Victoriaandillustratehowresearchoutputscanbeusedto implementstrategicplanningatthelocalscale. Broadoverviewfocusingonclimate.BUTinformation becomingavailableinland-usesuitability,futurecropyields, riskstoindustriesforcertainregionsofVictoria

  9. ClimatechangeinVictoria 1961-1990 Meanannual Temperature= 14.0c Annualrainfall =688mm

  10. ClimatechangeinVictoria 2000-2009 Meanannual Temperature= 14.4c Annualrainfall =578mm

  11. ClimatechangeinVictoria 2070A1FI Meanannual Temperature= 17.5c Annualrainfall =421mm

  12. ClimatechangeinVictoria Overall: Warmer Dryer Increasedlikelihoodofmoreextremeeventssuchas heatwaves,floods,bushfires(erosion)andstormsurges(sea levelrise). Thisinformationisavailableat5kmresolutionacrossthe state(CSIROpreparedforDPI)andisparamountfor agriculturalactivitiesandcanbeusedtoidentifyfuture necessaryadaptationsortransformations. Climatechangeanditsimpactwilldifferspatiallyand temporarily:4regions

  13. ClimatechangeinVictoria Mallee–Wimmera-NorthCentral Climatechangesummary2070(Businessasusual) Temperature:15.2C +2.97C[1.9-3.9] -Frost Days: -Days above 35 C: Rainfall:437mm -10.7%[+4.7-27] from26to6 from25to49 Grain Value Mainagriculturalindustries PotentialRisks:(consequence*likelihood) ●Low●Medium●High Cattle Fruits Dairy Horticulture Forestry 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

  14. ClimatechangeinSWVictoria GlenelgHopkins-Corangamite Climatechangesummary2070(Businessasusual) Temperature:13.5C +2.4C[1.6-3.5] - Frost days: - Days above 35: Rainfall:730.5mm -11.8%[-1-24.5%] from48to17 from5.5to15 GrossvalueofselectedagricutluralcommoditiesinSouthWestVictoria Mainagriculturalindustries PotentialRisks:(consequence*likelihood) ●Low●Medium●High Milk Cattleandcalvesslaughtered Sheepandlambsslaughtered Wool Hay Wheatforgrain Poultryslaughtered Potatoes Barleyforgrain Canola 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 $m(nominalvalue)

  15. ClimatechangeinVictoria WestGippsland-EastGippsland Climatechangesummary2070(Businessasusual) Temperature:12.7C +2.7C[1.85-3.75] -Frostdays: -Daysabove35: Rainfall:925mm -10%[3-23.5%] from26to6 from6to13.5 Dairy Value Mainagriculturalindustries PotentialRisks:(consequence*likelihood) Cattle Horticulture(veg) Fruitsandviti) ●Low●Medium●High Forestry 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

  16. ClimatechangeinNEVictoria Goulburnbroken-NorthEast Climatechangesummary2070(Businessasusual) Temperature:12.9C +2.8C[1.9-3.85] - Frost days: -Daysabove35: Rainfall:976.5mm -10%[+2.5-24.5] fromto42to20 from13to30.5 value Mainagriculturalindustries Dairy Cattle PotentialRisks:(consequence*likelihood) ●Low●Medium●High Fruitsandviti) Horticulture(veg) Grain Forestry 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

  17. APPLELANDSUITABILITY–Year2000vs2070

  18. AccumulatedChillingfromMarch1sttoNovember30th 2750 2543.770191 2500 2250 2000 1911.265987 1193.142926 1750 1500 1250 Base AccumulatedChilling(CU) 1000 750 500 250 0 2030 2050 2070 371.989861 0 0 30-179.653976 60 91 121 152 183 213 244 274 -250 -418.929931 -500 -750 -497.417736 -615.250193 DaynumberfromMarch1st

  19. Local government •Strandedassets Decision- making Impacts& adaptive responses •Infrastructureandtransport Agribusinessesand communities •Adaptation&transformation •Livelihoods Commodity modelling Primaryproducersand associatedresearchers •Newvarieties •Changestoon-farmpractice Data acquisition Climatechange projectsintheregion

  20. INITIALCLIMATECHANGEPROJECTIONS FORGIPPSLAND–Temperature(AIF1)

  21. Thisisaworkinprogress… Nofinalansweryet…startedin2000-2001incollaboration withCSIRO. Dataavailable,toolstovisualiseandexploredata. Contactdetails: Jean-Philippe Aurambout:Jeanphilippe.Aurambout@dpi.vic.gov.au Robert Faggian:Robert.Faggian@dpi.vic.gov.au Geo-Visualisationportal:VRO www.new.dpi.vic.gov.au/vro

  22. Landusesuitability:approach ClimateChange Projections MonthlyProjectionsof9 Variables LandSuitabilityAnalysis Baseline Future PossibleAdaptationActions HistoricalWeather Information Soil&Topography Information

  23. Climatechangeimpactmodelling GHCemissions Socio-economic models Chainofmodelsand uncertaintypropagation GHGconcentrations inatmosphere Carboncycle models Globalclimate Moreonclimatechange: www.ipcc.ch changeprojections Global-scale climatemodels Regional/local climaticchanges Downscaling models Impactsonnatural andhumansystems Sectoralimpact models Uncertainty propagation http://www.csiro.au/science/Climate- Change.html http://www.climatechange.vic.gov. au/home

  24. InformationTechnology GoogleEarth:displayspatialdataexportedfrom GISsoftware

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