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Climate change and adaptive human migration

Climate change and adaptive human migration. Dr. Robert McLeman Department of Geography University of Ottawa. Theoretical & conceptual backdrop. Migration is but one way by which households may adapt to climate-related stress Is not simple stimulus-response process

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Climate change and adaptive human migration

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  1. Climate change and adaptive human migration Dr. Robert McLeman Department of Geography University of Ottawa

  2. Theoretical & conceptual backdrop • Migration is but one way by which households may adapt to climate-related stress • Is not simple stimulus-response process • Household adaptation options and migration decisions are condition by access to capital McLeman and Smit 2006

  3. Empirical work • Highlights from 3 projects

  4. Project 1: Migration vs. other household adaptation options • Oklahoma 1930s • Severe droughts, crop failures McLeman 2006, 2007 McLeman et al 2007

  5. Actor/scale Governance/ institutions Individual farm Type of adaptation Technological improvements Programs/subsidies Modify farming practices Non-farming adaptations Levels of adaptation after Smit and Skinner 2002

  6. Actor/scale Governance/ institutions Individual farm Type of adaptation Technological improvements Programs/subsidies Modify farming practices Non-farming adaptations 1930s Oklahoma droughts too costly came too late already at maximum

  7. 1930s Oklahoma droughts • Adaptation options constrained by access to economic, social, cultural capital • Particular types of capital facilitated out-migration by young, skilled families • Feedback effects on adaptive capacity • Drought areas lost human capital, social cohesion McLeman et al 2007

  8. Project 2: Demographic change and community adaptive capacity www.addington.uottawa.ca

  9. Observed climatic changes in Addington Highlands • Shorter, milder winters with less snow • Earlier spring conditions • Warmer summers with less variability • Increasingly windy with occasional micro-bursts (short, high-intensity windstorms)

  10. Demographic change • Population = 2,500 • Absolute numbers unchanged from 1901 • But…

  11. Demographic change • Population = 2,500 • Absolute numbers unchanged from 1901 • But…

  12. Risks Pressure on health & emergency services Fewer people with survival skills Social cohesion breaking down Opportunity Skills of newcomers untapped Impacts on adaptive capacity

  13. Project 3: Modeling climate-migration • Building GIS model to combine climate & demographic data to identify “hotspots’ • Start with western Canada – drought- related migration known to have occurred • Can we model to local scale areas where severe drought & population decline coincided? McLeman et al. submitted

  14. Datasets • Canada census data 1926, 1931, 1936 • Historical climate model data at 10km2 grid cells (McKenny et al. 2006) • Summer monthly temperature and precipitation data selected for 1926-36 • Organized according to cumulative frequency of relatively hot, dry conditions

  15. Population change 1931-36

  16. Average summer precipitation 1926-36

  17. Average summer temperatures 1926-1936

  18. Combined data sets, 1931-36

  19. Population decline exceeding 10% 1931-36

  20. Thanks! Dr. Robert McLeman Assistant Professor Department of Geography University of Ottawa Canada K1N 6N5 rmcleman@uottawa.ca

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