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The Future Of The Middle East. Wayne Radinsky Boulder Future Salon 2011-03-26. Oil Exports. Saudi Arabia – 8,728,000 barrels/day Iran – 2,400,000 Iraq – 1,910,000 Algeria – 1,891,000 Libya – 1,542,000 Oman – 573,000 Sudan – 303,800 Yemen – 274,400. Oil Exports (cont'd).

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the future of the middle east
The Future Of The Middle East

Wayne Radinsky

Boulder Future Salon

2011-03-26

oil exports
Oil Exports

Saudi Arabia – 8,728,000 barrels/day

Iran – 2,400,000

Iraq – 1,910,000

Algeria – 1,891,000

Libya – 1,542,000

Oman – 573,000

Sudan – 303,800

Yemen – 274,400

oil exports cont d
Oil Exports (cont'd)

Bahrain – 238,300

Syria – 155,000

Egypt – 89,300

Tunisia – 77,130

Morocco – 17,420

Djibouti – 19

All others – 0

unemployment rate
Unemployment Rate

Yemen – 35%

Mauritania – 30

Libya – 30

Sudan – 18.70

Iraq – 15.30

Oman – 15

Bahrain – 15

unemployment cont d
Unemployment (cont'd)

Iran – 14.6

Tunisia – 14

Jordan – 13.40

Saudi Arabia – 10.8

Algeria – 9.9

Egypt – 9.7

Syria – 8.3

gdp growth
GDP Growth

Yemen – 8.0%

Egypt – 5.1

Sudan – 5.1

Mauritania – 4.7

Djibouti – 4.5

Oman – 4.2

Libya – 4.2

Bahrain – 4.1

gdp growth cont d
GDP Growth (cont'd)

Saudi Arabia – 3.7%

Tunisia – 3.7

Algeria – 3.3

Syria – 3.2

Morocco – 3.2

Jordan – 3.1

Iran – 1.0

Iraq – 0.8

population
Population

Egypt – 82,079,700

Iran – 77,891,300

Iraq – 30,399,600

Saudi Arabia – 26,131,800

Yemen – 24,133,500

Syria – 22,517,800

Tunisia – 10,629,200

Libya – 6,598,0001

population growth rate
Population Growth Rate

Bahrain – 2.81 %/year

Yemen – 2.65

Sudan – 2.48

Iraq – 2.399

Mauritania – 2.35

Djibouti – 2.24

Libya – 2.06

Oman – 2.02

population growth rate cont d
Population Growth Rate (cont'd)

Egypt – 1.96

Saudi Arabia – 1.54

Iran – 1.234

Morocco – 1.07

Jordan – 0.98

Tunisia – 0.98

Syria – 0.91

Lebanon – 0.24

life expectancy
Life Expectancy

Jordan – 80.05

Bahrain – 78.15

Libya – 77.65

Lebanon – 75.01

Tunisia – 75.01

Syria – 74.69

Oman – 74.22

Saudi Arabia – 74.11

life expectancy cont d
Life Expectancy (cont'd)

Egypt – 72.66

Iraq – 70.55

Iran – 70.06

Yemen – 63.74

Djibouti – 61.14

Sudan – 55.42

median age
Median Age

Yemen – 18.1

Mauritania – 19.5

Iraq – 20.9

Djibouti – 21.8

Syria – 21.9

Jordan – 22.1

Oman – 24.1

Egypt – 24.3

median age cont d
Median Age (cont'd)

Libya – 24.5

Saudi Arabia – 25.3

Morocco – 26.9

Algeria – 27.6

Tunisia – 30

Sudan – 30

Bahrain – 30

religion
Religion

Saudi Arabia – 100% Muslim

Mauritania – 100% Muslim

Yemen – Muslim including Shaf'i (Sunni) and Zaydi (Shia), small numbers of Jewish, Christian, and Hindu

Algeria – 99% Muslim, Christian and Jewish 1%

Tunisia – 98% Muslim, 1% Christian, 1% Jewish and other

religion cont d
Religion (cont'd)

Sudan – 98% Muslim, 1% Christian, 1% Jewish and other

Iran – 98% Muslim (89% Shia, 9% Sunni), 2% Zoroastrian, Jewish, Christian, and Baha'i

Libya – 97% Sunni Muslim, 3% other

Iraq – Religion 97% Muslim (60-65% Shia, 32-37% Sunni), 3% Christian or other. The Christian population has dropped by 50 percent since the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003, with many fleeing to Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon.

religion cont d1
Religion (cont'd)

Djibouti – 94% Muslim, 6% Christian

Jordan – 92% Sunni Muslim, 6% Christian, 2% other including Shia Muslim and Druze

Egypt – 90% Muslim (mostly Sunni), Coptic 9%, other Christian 1%

Bahrain – 81.2% Muslim, 9% Christian, 9.8% other

Oman – 75% Ibadhi Muslim, 25% Sunni Muslim, Shia Muslim, and Hindu

religion cont d2
Religion (cont'd)

Syria – 74% Sunni Muslim, 16% Shia, Alawite, and Druze Muslim, 10% Christian, tiny Jewish communities in Damascus

ethnicity
Ethnicity

Egypt – 99.4% Egyptian, 0.4% other

Algeria – 99% Arab-Berber, European < 1%, almost all Algerians are Berber in origin, not Arab; the minority who identify themselves as Berber live mostly in the mountainous region of Kabylie east of Algiers; the Berbers are also Muslim but identify with their Berber rather than Arab cultural heritage; Berbers have long agitated, sometimes violently, for autonomy

Morocco – 99.1% Arab-Berber, Jewish 0.2%

ethnicity cont d
Ethnicity (cont'd)

Tunisia – 98% Arab, 1% European, 1% Jewish and other

Jordan – 98% Arab, 1% Circassin, 1% Armenian

Libya – 97% Berber and Arab, 3% Greeks, Maltese, Italians, Egyptians, Pakistanis, Turks, Indians, Tunisians

Syria – 90.3% Arab, 9.7% Kurds and Armenians

Saudi Arabia – 90% Arab, 10% African and Asian

Iraq – 75%-80% Arab, 15%-20% Kurdish, 5% Turkoman, Assyrian, or other

ethnicity cont d1
Ethnicity (cont'd)

Bahrain – 62.4% Bahraini, 37.6% other

Djibouti – 60% Somali, 35% Afar, 5% French, Arab, Ethiopian, and Italian

Iran – 51% Persion, 24% Azeri, 8% Gilaki and Mazandarani, 7% kURD, 3% Arab, 2% Lur, 2% Baloch, 2% Turkmen, 1% other

Sudan – 50% black, 39% Arab, 6% Beja, 3% other

Mauritania – 40% mixed Moor & black, 30% Moor, black 30%

ethnicity cont d2
Ethnicity (cont'd)

Yemen – predominantly Arab; also Afro-Arab, South Asians, Europeans

Oman – Arab, Baluchi, South Asian (Indian, Pakistani, Sri Lankan, Bangladeshi), African

languages
Languages

ARABIC is the official language for almost all countries involved (all but Iran).

English understood by educated classes in Egypt, Libya, Jordan, Bahrain, and Oman

French understood by educated classes in Mauritania, Algeria, Morocco, Djibouti, Egypt, and Syria.

Asian dialects like Farsi and Urdu understood by some in Bahrain and Oman

Native dialects in many countries (e.g. Berber)

historical precedent 1989
Historical Precedent? 1989

Pro-democracy demonstrators overthrew a string of Soviet bloc communist dictatorships in a matter of months through generally non-violent methods.

The movement arose in Poland when the opposition group Solidarity rose to power and soon spread to Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, and finally Romania, where the unrest turned more violent and the dictator and his wife eventually faced a firing squad.

1989 cont d
1989 (cont'd)

Similarities: spontaneous, domino-like way in which today's protests have migrated from one Arab country to another.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel – who grew up in East Germany and entered politics in 1989 – claimed that Middle East protesters were "shaking off their fear" just as Eastern Europeans had.

1989 cont d1
1989 (cont'd)

Differences: Eastern Europeans supported America because it was the Soviet Union's sworn enemy, while demonstrators in the Middle East are suspicious of the U.S. (George Soros)

Middle East protests "have been uprisings against a sclerotic and out of touch leadership" whereas in in Eastern Europe "the change was much deeper, systemic." (James Collins)

historical precedent 1968
Historical Precedent: 1968?

In 1968, a year dominated by the war in Vietnam and the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia, student and worker protests convulsed countries ranging from Mexico to Czechoslovakia to the U.S. Perhaps the most high-profile rebellion occurred in France in May, when students swarmed the streets, clashed violently with police, and joined forces with workers, paralyzing the French economy for several weeks.

1968 cont d
1968 (cont'd)

Similarities: "A largely leaderless revolt of the young, and a government initially in disarray, ending as the middle classes demanded a restoration of order and the government regained control of the situation." (Michael D. Mosettig)

French students, like the young Egyptian protesters, rose up because they had bleak job prospects after completing their studies. (Amiel Unger)

1968 cont d1
1968 (cont'd)

Differences: The 1968 protests "overthrew no regime even temporarily and left some cultural remnants of minimal historical importance." (George Friedman) "The democracies that eventually arise will produce regimes that will take their bearings from their own culture, which means Islam."

historical precedent 1948
Historical Precedent: 1948?

In 1848, a revolution in France triggered similar uprisings in almost every other country in Europe. Historians attribute the reform movements, which were largely spearheaded by the middle class, to a variety of causes ranging economic hardship to the influence of nationalism, liberalism, and socialism. The revolutions were largely unsuccessful. In France, for example, protesters ousted the monarch only to see the republic they created crumble shortly thereafter. The German states failed to unite as they had hoped.

1948 cont d
1948 (cont'd)

Similarities: The Middle East protests, like the revolutions of 1848, "are the product of multiple changes – economic, technological, demographic – and have taken on a distinctly different flavor and meaning in each country." (Anne Applebaum).

The revolutions of 1848 failed in the near term, but planted the seeds for change over a longer period. By 1900, Bismarck had united Germany and France had established its Third Republic.

historical precedent none
Historical Precedent: NONE?

“New in Cairo 2011 is that it is now Arabs and Muslims standing up in large numbers, with courage and (for the most part) peaceful discipline, for basic human dignity, against corrupt, oppressive rulers. New in 2011 is the degree of decentered, networked animation of the demonstrations, so that even the best-informed observers there struggle to answer the question 'who is organising this?'. New in 2011 is the extraordinary underlying pressure of demography, with half the population in most of these countries being under 25.” (Timothy Garton Ash)

price of food cont d
Price Of Food? (cont'd)

“Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat, and wheat prices have been rising. But the Egyptian government also subsidizes staple food items: 70 percent of Egyptians rely on subsidized food. Since the 2008 riots – which really were about bread – the government has been keeping food prices for basics relatively stable.” David Pollock (Washington Institute For Near East Policy)

cause generation gap
Cause: Generation Gap?

“Worldwide generational conflict will grow. Around the planet young adults are asserting themselves in the workplace and in political arenas. Protests against entrenched governments will increase in frequency and severity.” (Jon Tapscott, Jan. 7th 2011).

generation gap cont d
Generation Gap (cont'd)

“My young cousins who are in their 20’s and early 30’s are part of the Tahrir generation. Tahrir means Liberation in Arabic. The world got to know the Tahrir generation over a mere 18 day period in which that generation rocked the foundation of the status quo in the Middle East and perhaps beyond. That generation reached adulthood in the age of social media. Their brilliance, resourcefulness, and organizational skills took down what was perceived to be a rock solid 30 year regime in only 18 days.” (Kai Falkenberg)

cause satellite tv al jazeera
Cause: Satellite TV/Al-Jazeera?

“To my mind the Western press completely did not deal with the problem of Al-Jazeera, which is still, for the time being, the real leader of these demonstrations, revolutions if you like. Al-Jazeera turned its cameras from the first days of the demonstrations to Tahrir Square and incited the demonstrators against the regime.” – Zvi Mazel (Former Israeli Ambassador to Egypt)

cause wikileaks
Cause: Wikileaks?

"Tunisia has been ruled by the same president for 22 years. He has no successor. […] President Ben Ali […] and his regime have lost touch with the Tunisian people. They tolerate no advice or criticism, whether domestic or international. Increasingly, they rely on the police for control and focus on preserving power. Corruption in the inner circle is growing. […] The risks to the regime's long-term stability are increasing." (Robert Godec, US ambassador to Tunisia, July 2009, revealed by Wikileaks)

cause facebook
Cause: Facebook?

“If all 85,000 Facebook attendees of tomorrow's 'Revolution Day' actually show up, Abdel Moneim Said might have his theory [that the regional fallout from Tunisia was little more than 'media sensationalism'] to the test.” – TIME Magazine reporter Abigail Hauslohner, January 24th, 2011, the day before the Egyptian protests began.

facebook cont d
Facebook (cont'd)

“The people who are signing up to protest on Facebook aren’t the sort of people who’d normally get involved in politics. In the past the activists have often been Islamists, but now the Internet is reaching out to a new generation.” – Mohammed Nabil (Cairo University student)

cause other social media
Cause: other social media?

Cell phone towers deactivated in Egypt – no text messaging

Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube blocked in Egypt

By Feb 2 – entire internet shut down in Egypt

Feb 3 – Egyptian government broadcasted their own text messages

5 future scenarios
5 Future Scenarios

Rapid transition to democracy (what everyone hopes for)

Long period of turmoil, followed by democracy

Long period of turmoil, followed by... more turmoil

Transition back to dictatorship, but perhaps under different dictators

Religious theocracy (“Muslim Brotherhood” etc – the scenario Fox News seems to fear the most.)

sources
Sources

Map: http://culturekitchen.com/files/2010-2011MiddleEastUprisings.png

Statistics: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html

Historical Precedent: http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2011/02/choose-your-middle-east-historical-comparison-1989-1968-or-1848/21021/

Wheat Price Chart: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CW/W

sources cont d
Sources (cont'd)

Quotations:

http://dontapscott.com/2011/01/07/top-trends-and-developments-for-2011/

http://blogs.forbes.com/kaifalkenberg/2011/02/16/mubarak-is-out-but-the-generational-clash-in-egypt-continues/

http://www.5tjt.com/international-news/9622-former-israeli-ambassador-to-egypt-accuses-al-jazeera-of-fomenting-chaos

http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/islamsadvance/2008/05/egypts_facebook_revolution.html

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2044142,00.html