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This report provides an update on the recent evolution, current status, and prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It includes information on rainfall patterns, atmospheric circulation, and model forecasts. Visit the provided link for more details.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 31, 2016 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits are beginning to accrue over southern peninsular India, where the deficits are due both from the southwest summer monsoon that just ended in September and the emerging fall/winter northeast monsoon. Deficits are also noted over central and northern India, east central China. Elsewhere the 90 day rainfall amounts are at near or above normal levels.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall was much below normal over southern India south of approximately 18N, especially along the east coast, much above normal over eastern coastal/bordering interior China round 30N. Rainfall was also at near or above normal levels across Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Papua New Guinea.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, eastern China received above normal rainfall and northeast monsoon rainfall was deficient over southern India. This past week’s rainfall across the region was very consistent with the forecast rainfall by the CFS model. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, the rainfall for the whole country was highly deficient by about -33 % across the country, since the start of the climatological North East winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) over southern India.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits are beginning to accrue over southern peninsular India, where the deficits are due both from the southwest summer monsoon that just ended in September and the emerging fall/winter northeast monsoon. Deficits are also noted over central and northern India, and east central China. Elsewhere the 90 day rainfall amounts are at near or above normal levels. For the past 30 days the rainfall was much below normal over southern India south of approximately 18N, especially along the east coast, much above normal over eastern coastal and bordering interior China round 30N. Rainfall was also at near or above normal levels across Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Papua New Guinea. In this past week, eastern China received above normal rainfall and northeast monsoon rainfall was deficient over southern India. This past week’s rainfall across the region was very consistent with the rainfall forecast by the CFS model. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, the rainfall for the whole country was highly deficient by about -33 % across the country, since the start of the climatological North East winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) over southern India. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model continues to predict below normal rainfall amounts not only over southern peninsular India but also across the entire monsoon region, with just the exception of parts of the Philippines.
