Catastrophe Planning: Variables and Relationships

1. Catastrophe Planning: Variables and Relationships David A. McEntire, PhD University of North Texas

2. Catastrophes • A product of a hazard (or hazards) of extreme magnitude with extreme forms of vulnerability.

3. Examples of Hazards • Meteor crater • Great Sumatra earthquake • China earthquake • Hurricane Katrina • Spanish Flu • Union Carbide spill • Future events

4. Rethinking Hazards • We have little control over hazards • A focus on hazards downplays the human element • Thoughts from various scholars

5. The Role of Humans • Environmental degradation • Population growth • Resource depletion • Spread of diseases • Changes in warfare

6. Focusing on Vulnerability • Definition • The social vulnerability school • The holistic vulnerability school

7. Accepting Complexity • Catastrophes are not always sudden occurrences • Hazards may trigger other hazards • Major events unfold in complicated ways • Overlapping environments • East Bay Hills fire

8. The Impact of Catastrophes • Non-routine social problems • Society will be severely incapacitated • Will require outside assistance

9. Intervention Points • Mitigation • Preparedness • Response • Recovery

10. Management Models • Bureaucratic Model • Centralized • Top down • Rigid • Assumes the worst about human behavior • Problem Solving • Decentralized • Bottom up • Flexible • Assumes an altruistic society

11. Conclusion • Catastrophes result from hazards and vulnerability • There are many variables that lead to catastrophes and they interact in complex ways • Impacts of catastrophes are significant • We must take special measures to deal with catastrophes • There are two models to help us manage them

12. Thank you! David A. McEntire Emergency Administration and Planning University of North Texas (940) 565-2996 mcentire@unt.edu