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Item No. 3 . Future Public Services. 23 April 2014 . Nick Page Strategic Director for Children’s Services. Purpose of today. Salford’s future: Our changing demographics and economy Scale of the various challenges The role of partners Start of discussions on: Potential responses

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slide1

Item No. 3

Future Public Services

23April 2014

Nick Page

Strategic Director for

Children’s Services

purpose of today
Purpose of today

Salford’s future:

Our changing demographics and economy

Scale of the various challenges

The role of partners

Start of discussions on:

Potential responses

Next steps

salford population forecasts 2014 to 2020 1
Salford population - forecasts 2014 to 2020 (1)

Total forecast up by 7.3% (17,600 people),

England projected up by 5%

forecast to peak 2017-18 at 4,000 (1.6%)

0-4 years forecast up by 1,100 or 6.2%,

England projected up by 2.3%

until 2016 growth in Salford similar to national projection

after 2016, growth in Salford above national average but falling towards 2020 and beyond

5-9 years forecast up by 2,800 or 16.8%

England projected up by 11.1%

until 2017 rates in Salford much greater than England

after 2017 closer to but still above national average

10-15 years forecast up by 1,900 or 15.6%

England projected up by 8.7%

previously Salford rates less than the national average

Salford rate will start to converge with national rate around 2020

slide4

Salford population - forecasts 2014 to 2020 (2)

  • Working age (19-64 years) forecast up by 6.9%
    • England projection 2.9%
    • rates of growth forecast to converge in 2019
    • Salford forecast 8.3% growth in those 30-64 years
  • 65-89 years forecast up by 6.3%
    • slower than national average, in line with past trends
    • growth in the number of people aged 65+ forecast to remain lower than national rates, unlike younger age groups
  • 90 years and over forecast up by about 100 a year
      • in line with national growth rate
slide5
4.1% Salford residents unemployed in December 2013

above Greater Manchester and national rates

16.7% of working age people claim out-of-work benefits.

Salford consistently higher than the national rate of 11.2%

slight changes (0.5% increase 2011 to 2013)

62% of Salford residents have qualifications at level 2 or below

Worse than GM and national rates

75% of all new jobs expected to require qualification at level 2 or above

32% of people working in Salford have qualifications at level 2 or below

Minority communities

almost tripled since 2001 to 14.4%

lower than national level but gap is closing

largest BME groups are White Eastern European, Asian and Black African

Jewish community remains largest minority faith; Muslim community has more than doubled

Job growth forecast up by 7.6%

England average 5%

Salford rate forecast to be double the national rate from 2017

Forecast about 1,700 extra jobs a year

Health inequalities

linked to deprivation

Salford’s mortality rates remain higher than the England average,

rates in Salford have fallen over recent years but in line with national trends so gaps persist

Salford’s population: some characteristics

slide6

Greater Manchester public spending

2008/09 to 2012/13 (cash terms)

£22.5 bn

£20.9 bn

Source: New Economy

slide7

Greater Manchester public spending

2008/09 to 2012/13 (real terms)

£22.9 bn

£22.5 bn

Source: New Economy

some other government policy drivers
Some other Government policy drivers

Open public services and localism

Increasing choice – giving people choice over the services they use

Empowering local decision making – decentralising power to the lowest appropriate level

Opening up public services – opening up provision to a range of providers

Giving everyone fair access – supporting the most disadvantaged in fulfilling their potential

Increasing accountability – making public service providers accountable to users and taxpayers

the social challenge
The social challenge

Behaviour

Resilience

Our role in managing

Expectations

some possible considerations
Some possible considerations

Greater Manchester programmes

changing the offer

joint design and community engagement

co-operative city

social value

delivering differently

asset-based approaches

gm opportunities
GM opportunities

Early Years

Helping Families and Complex Dependency

Transforming Justice

Promoting Independence for Older People

Health and Social Care Reform

GM Growth and Reform Plan

http://www.agma.gov.uk/gmca/gm-growth-reform-plan/index.html

slide12

Changing the Offer

Reactive / Specialist

Reactive /

Specialist

Early

Help

Early Help

Universal

Universal

what else
What else?

What examples of co-design and co-delivery do we have that we can build on already?

Is there an economic AND service improvement link?

What, if we want to, should we do to develop a proposition or series of propositions going forward?