columbia river basin water supply and demand forecast for 2030 l.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Columbia River Basin Water Supply and Demand Forecast for 2030 PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Columbia River Basin Water Supply and Demand Forecast for 2030

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 35

Columbia River Basin Water Supply and Demand Forecast for 2030 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 217 Views
  • Uploaded on

Columbia River Basin Water Supply and Demand Forecast for 2030. Presented by: Keyvan Malek, Washington State University Contributors: J.C. Adam, K. Chinnayakanahalli , K. Rajagopalan, R. Nelson, M.E. Barber, C. Stockle, M. Brady, G. Yorgey, S. Dinesh, C. Kruger Washington State University

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Columbia River Basin Water Supply and Demand Forecast for 2030' - sierra


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
columbia river basin water supply and demand forecast for 2030

Columbia River Basin Water Supply and Demand Forecast for 2030

Presented by: Keyvan Malek, Washington State University

Contributors:

J.C. Adam, K. Chinnayakanahalli, K. Rajagopalan, R. Nelson, M.E. Barber, C. Stockle, M. Brady, G. Yorgey, S. Dinesh, C. Kruger

Washington State University

Presented at:

2nd annual PNW Climate Science Conference, Seattle

Sep, 2011

wsu modeling team
WSU Modeling Team

Dr. Jennifer Adam

Assistant Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering

Dr. Claudio Stöckle

Professor and Chair, Biological Systems Engineering

Dr. Michael Brady

Assistant Professor, School of Economic Sciences

Dr. Michael Barber

Professor and Director, Washington Water Research Center

Dr. KiranChinnayakanahalli

Post-Doctoral Associate, Washington Water Research Center

Chad Kruger

Director of Center for Sustaining Agriculture & Natural Resources (CSANR)

Roger Nelson

Research Associate and Programmer, Biological Systems Engineering

KirtiRajagopalan

PhD Student, Civil and Environmental Engineering

ShifaDinesh

PhD Student, Civil and Environmental Engineering

Georgine Yorgey

Associate in Research, Center for Sustaining Agriculture & Natural Resources (CSANR)

outline of talk
Outline of Talk
  • Goals
  • Background
  • Modeling Approach
  • Results
  • Conclusions
goals
Goals
  • To project 2030s water supply and demand in the Columbia River Basin
    • Agricultural and Municipal demands considered
  • To study the effect of climate change on agriculture (crop water demand, crop yield, cropping pattern)
background
Background
  • Columbia River
  • Water resources sensitive to climate change
  • Economic value of agriculture (5 billion $ in WA)
  • Irrigation largest out-of-stream water user
  • Diverse crop mix
models used
Models Used

VIC

Hydrology

Liang et al, 1994

CropSyst

Cropping Systems

Stockle and Nelson 1994

vic cropsyst model
VIC-CropSyst Model

VIC

CropSyst

1. Weather (D)

2. Soil

Soil layer depths

Soil water content

3. Water flux (D)

Infiltrated water

4. Crop type

Irrigation water = Crop Water Demand /irrigation efficiency

Sow date

Crop interception capacity

Crop phenology

Crop uptake (D)

Water stress (D)

Current biomass (D)

Crop Water demand (D)

Harvest day

Crop Yield

D – communicated daily

slide10

VIC-CropSystCoupling Approach

T

T – Transpiration

IP – Interception

capacity

I – Infiltration

Ir – irrigation

Wd- Water demand

Q – Runoff

Q01 – Drainage from

0 to 1

Q02 – Drainage from

0 to 2

Qb– Baseflow

W0 – water content in 0

W1 – water content in 1

W2 - water content in 2

Tmin, Tmax – daily minimum and maximum temperature

Ws – wind speed

RH – Relative humidity

SR – Solar radiation

IP

Ir

I

Q

T0, T1, T2, IP,

Wd

Q01

Daily Tmin, Tmax,

Ws, RH, SR, I

Q12

Redistribute I, W0, W1 and W2 to CropSyst layers

W0,W1, W2

Qb

CropSyst

VIC

invoking cropsyst within vic gridcell
Invoking CropSyst within VIC gridcell

CropSyst is invoked

Crop 2

CropSyst is invoked

Crop 1

Non-Crop Vegetation

VIC grid cell

(resolution=1/16°)

(~ 33 km2)

crops modeled
Crops Modeled
  • Winter Wheat
  • Spring Wheat
  • Alfalfa
  • Barley
  • Potato
  • Corn
  • Corn, Sweet
  • Pasture
  • Apple
  • Cherry
  • Lentil
  • Mint
  • Hops

Major Crops

  • Grape, Juice
  • Grape, Wine
  • Pea, Green
  • Pea, Dry
  • Sugarbeet
  • Canola
  • Onions
  • Asparagus
  • Carrots
  • Squash
  • Garlic
  • Spinach

Berries

  • Grape, Juice
  • Grass hay
  • Bluegrass
  • Hay
  • Rye grass
  • Oats
  • Bean, green
  • Rye
  • Barley
  • Bean, dry
  • Bean, green

Other Pastures

  • Caneberry
  • Blueberry
  • Cranberry
  • Pear
  • Peaches

Other Tree fruits

Lentil/Wheat type

Generic Vegetables

the reservoir model colsim hamlet et al 1999
The Reservoir Model (ColSim) (Hamlet et al., 1999)

Reservoir Operating Policies

Physical System

of Dams

and Reservoirs

Reservoir Storage

Regulated Streamflow

Flood Control

Energy Production

Irrigation Consumption

Streamflow Augmentation

VIC Streamflow Time Series

Slide courtesy of Alan Hamlet

colsim reservoir model hamlet et al 1999 for columbia mainstem
ColSim Reservoir Model (Hamlet et al., 1999) for Columbia Mainstem

Model used as is, except for

  • Withdrawals being based on VIC-CropSyst results
  • Curtailment decision is made part of the reservoir model

Green triangles show the dam locations

curtailment rules washington state
Curtailment Rules (Washington State)

Curtailment based on instream flow targets

  • Columbia Mainstem
  • Lower Snake
  • Central Region (Methow, Okanogan, Wenatchee)
  • Eastern Region (Walla Walla, Little Spokane, Colville)

Prorated based on a calculation of Total Water Supply Available

  • Yakima
integration with economics
Integration with Economics

Inputs

Modeling Steps

Outputs

Biophysical Modeling:

VIC-CropSyst, Reservoirs, Curtailment

Future Climate Scenario

Water Supply

Irrigation Water Demand

Unmet Irrigation Water Demand

Effects on Crop Yield

  • Adjusted Crop Acreage
  • Selective Deficit Irrigation

Water Management Scenario

  • Crop Yield (as impacted by climate and water availability)

Economic Scenario

Economic Modeling:

Agricultural Producer Response

model scenarios low middle high
Model Scenarios: Low, Middle, High
  • Climate Change Scenarios
    • HADCM_B1, CCSM_B1, CGCM_B1, PCM_A1B, IPSL_A1B
    • Hybrid Delta Downscaling Approach (2030s climate)
    • GCMs and Emission Scenarios chosen for low/middle/high precipitation and temperature change combinations
  • Water Management Scenarios
    • Additional Storage Capacity
    • Cost Recovery for Newly Developed Water Supply
  • Economic Scenarios
    • International Trade
    • Economic Growth
slide18

The UW CIG Supply Forecast

http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/

Slide courtesy of Alan Hamlet

application of the uw cig water supply forecast
Application of the UW CIG Water Supply Forecast
  • WSU is building directly off of the UW water supply forecasting effort (Elsner et al. 2010) by starting with these tools that were developed by UW Climate Impacts Group:
    • Implementation of the VIC hydrology model over the Pacific Northwest at 1/16th degree resolution
    • Reservoir Model, ColSim
    • Historical climate data at 1/16th degree resolution
    • Downscaled future climate data at 1/16th degree resolution
  • By explicitly incorporating irrigation water demand into this framework, we can explore the coupled dynamics between water supply and water demand
results
Results
  • Supply Forecast
  • Irrigation Demand Forecast
supply in 2030s for the columbia river basin at bonneville the outlet of columbia river basin
Supply in 2030s for the Columbia River Basin (at Bonneville- the outlet of Columbia river basin)
  • Annual flows are projected to increase by 3%
  • Summer flows are projected to decrease by 16%

Note: The above numbers are based on an average of all 5 future climate scenarios considered

slide22

Water Supply Entering Washington

  • Eastern: increasing
  • Western: decreasing

Top: 2030 Flow (cfs)

Bottom: Historical Flow (cfs)

yakima supply and demand
Yakima Supply and Demand

Historical

Future: Hadcm_B1

impacts on irrigation demand
Impacts on Irrigation Demand
  • Projected demand for 2030s (middle climate change and economic scenarios):

Columbia River Basin Scale

Average annual “top of the crop” irrigation demand increases from 10.7 MAF to 11.8 MAF (increase of 10%)

Washington State

Average annual “top of the crop” irrigation demand increases from 4.9 MAF to 5.5 MAF (increase of 12%)

dam regulated supply versus demand for columbia river basin at bonneville
Dam-Regulated Supply versus Demand for Columbia River Basin (at Bonneville)

2030 results are for

- HADCM_B1 climate scenario

- average economic growth and trade

Note: Supply is reported prior to accounting for demands

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Supply: we see a small increase (3%) in annual supply in the 2030s
    • But, summer supplies (when there is irrigation demand) decreases about 16%
  • Demand: we see a significant increase in annual irrigation demand (10% for the entire Columbia River Basin) in the 2030s
  • Increased irrigation demand, coupled with decreased seasonal supply poses difficult water resources management questions, especially in the context of competing in stream and out of stream users of water supply.
acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
  • Many thanks to members of the University of Washington Climate Impacts and Land Surface Hydrology Groups
    • Alan Hamlet
    • Marketa Elsner
    • Pablo Carrasco
    • Se-Yeun Lee
    • Dennis Lettenmaier
  • Funding was provided by the Washington State Department of Ecology
uncertainties
Uncertainties

1-Future climate (due to GCMs, greenhouse emission scenarios anddownscaling approach)

2-Model structure (VIC-CropSyst)

3-Water management and economic scenarios

4-Cropping pattern - discrepancy between multiple data sources

5-Irrigation supply – poor data on groundwater and surface waterproportions of the supply

6-Irrigation methods a)No information for upstream states b)Conveyance loss is not explicitly modeled (This is a proportion of the demand at each WRIA)

change in crop yield
Change in Crop Yield
  • Change in some crop yield
  • Trees does not show significant change
  • Results are for full irrigation
slide34

Crop Mix Information

for the Columbia River Basin

  • United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
  • Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA)
yakima reservoir model
Yakima Reservoir Model

Instream flow targets

Total System of Reservoirs

(capacity 1MAF approx.)

Monthly Inflows

from VIC-CropSyst

Gauge at Parker

Irrigation demand from VIC/CropSyst

Curtailment rules

Proratable water rights prorated according to Total Water Supply Available (TWSA) calculated each month

  • Objectives:
  • Reservoir refill by June 1st
  • Flood space availability