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Iran-Europe Dialogue on Central Asia and Caucasia (CA&A). Abbas Maleki Roundtable on “Iran and European Union Cooperation in Caspian Sea, Central Asia, and Caucasus Institute for Caspian Studies March 11, 2007. Sources of Instability. -Radical approaches to Islam

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iran europe dialogue on central asia and caucasia ca a

Iran-Europe Dialogue on Central Asia and Caucasia (CA&A)

Abbas Maleki

Roundtable on “Iran and European Union Cooperation in Caspian Sea, Central Asia, and Caucasus

Institute for Caspian Studies

March 11, 2007

sources of instability
Sources of Instability

-Radical approaches to Islam

-The lack of sustainable economic development

-Energy and its Route

-Effort to change the lifestyle of the peoples in the region

-Corruption

-Policies of dominated powers in the region

-Ethnic violence

-Drug Trafficking

radical approaches to islam
Radical approaches to Islam
  • Different interpretation of Islam in the CA&C is one of instability sources. Specifically, the extreme perceptions of Islamic culture as different groups like Hizbuttahrir are proposing.
  • A rigid, radical and unpopular version of Islam which is very hard for the people to obey it.
lack of sustainable development
Lack of sustainable development

Total population of the CA&C is 73 millions:

-68% of 8 million in Azerbaijan, under the poverty line

-35% 15 Kazakhstan

-51% 5 Kirgizstan

-GDP/Capita:

  • -Tajikistan $180
  • -Kirgizstan 270
  • -Uzbekistan 360
  • -Armenia 520
  • -Azerbaijan 600
  • -Georgia 630
  • -Turkmenistan 750
  • -Kazakhstan 1260
energy export is not very high
Energy export is not very high
  • Armenia 0.3 US billion Dollars
  • Georgia 0.3
  • Kyrgyzstan 0.5
  • Tajikistan 0.8
  • Azerbaijan 1.8
  • Turkmenistan 2.7
  • Uzbekistan 3.0
  • Kazakhstan 9.1

Compare with Saudi $135 and Iran $55 US billion

orchestrated efforts by west to change the lifestyle of the peoples in ca c
Orchestrated efforts by West to change the lifestyle of the peoples in CA&C
  • Activities of rulers to weakening traditions, customs
  • Neglected NGOs
  • Example: Kazakhstan advertisement in IHT, Nov. 12, 2003 title: "Kz is the outpost of struggle against fundamentalism". Kz is the only country in the region in which Islamic opposition does not really exist. Religion has never played an important role in Kz, while Muslim organizations have been influential in neighboring Uz and Td…..This means that the Kazakhs are catching on to Western lifestyle and values.
  • The question is who is living with Kazakh lifestyle and values in future?
corruption
Corruption

There is no good governance in the region

-Most of the Governments are totalitarian regimes

-Most of the rulers are the former Secretary General of local Communist Parties.

-Corruption Index shows

-Azerbaijan is the 4th most corrupted country

-Russia is the 7th

-Kazakhstan is the 20th

energy in ca c
Energy in CA&C
  • Energy is one of the resources that could support the development
  • But the geopolitics of pipelines is the key factor for the phenomenon of new dependency to other countries
  • Russia is trying to dominate all of energy infrastructure in Eurasia
iran and ca c
Iran and CA&C
  • Iran has shown a rational, modest and economic oriented model in the CA&C.
  • Iran’s activities for

-Establishing ceasefire in Nagorno Karabakh in 1994.

-Success to end the Tajik civil war is among them.

-Iran was eager to see more cooperation among CA&C, proposed them the membership of ECO, establishment of CASCO in 1992.

-An observer in Shanghai Cooperation Organization

-Road and Rail networks for landlocked countries

iran a look at the energy sector
Iran:A look at the energy sector
  • Iran has very ambitious plans in oil, gas and petrochemicals;
  • Though the strategy on oil production capacity increase remains a key debate topic, major investments in this sector are inevitable;
  • The legal framework remains an issue, though slow changes are taking shape;
  • Iran’s focus in the next decade will be on gas and also gas-intensive industries;
  • Next important event: Restructuring of NIOC and consequent corporatization of the energy sector companies.

Investments needed in Iran’s energy sector 2005-2020

slide16

1.1

Omsk

Samara

Pavlodar

2.1

1

Atyrau

2

1.2

4

Odessa

2.2

Makhachkala

Novorossiysk

Actual

Shymkent

3

Supsa

2.3

5

Baku

Chardzhou

Ceyhan

Neka

3 – Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan

4 – Kazakhstan-China

5 – Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran

1 – Atyrau-Samara

1.1 – BPS

1.2 – Druzhba-Adria

2 – CPC

2.1 – Odessa-Brody-Gdansk

2.2 – Constanta-Trieste

2.3 – Burgas-Alexandroupolis

KTI
kazakhstan turkmenistan iran pipeline
Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran Pipeline
  • Study in process in accordance with the Agreement on Joint Studies concluded between KazMunayGas, Total, Japan National Oil Corporation, and Inpex
  • A Long-Term Export Option for Delivering Kazakh Oil to Asian Markets via Persian Gulf
slide23

20%

13.6%

11%

iran europe energy dialogue
Iran-Europe Energy Dialogue
  • The gas pipeline from CA to Iran then Europe is a key project in trilateral cooperation among three regions.
  • The study of the two routes from Iran to Europe via Turkey and Ukraine had been done.
energy
Energy
  • Iran is energy giant, one of its feet on the Persian Gulf, another on the Caspian, with geostrategic advantages.
  • Europe is surrounded by the sea of gas, most important of them: Russia, Iran and Qatar.
  • For Europe, the importance of CA&C is dramatically increased, because member ship of each central or Eastern Europe countries to EU means a new demand for Energy.
energy 2
Energy (2)
  • -Iran can decrease isolation of central Asia dramatically.
  • Iran now imports gas from Turkmenistan to consume in the Northern part of Iran, as imports oil from Kazakhstan.
  • Iran is end-user of the produced oil and gas in the CA&C
potential new supplies to europe with diversification of supply
Potential New Supplies to Europe with Diversification of Supply
  • Caspian Sea region: Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
  • Middle East region: Iran, Iraq
  • North Africa region: Egypt, Libya
iran europe energy dialogue restraints
Iran-Europe Energy Dialogue Restraints
  • Freidman Muller has discussed, in the past with political motivation, Europe preferred to follow the Soviet gas pipeline instead of the cheap and costless Iranian gas. Now again, because of US extraterritorial rules like 1995 ILSA, the oil and gas companies can not invest more than 20 million dollars in Iran's energy industries.
sources of natural gas supply european union

80%

20%

Import Norway

Import Russia

Indigenous Production

Import Algeria

Imports

Import Others

Indigenous Production

Sources of Natural Gas Supply - European Union

2030

Indigenous Imports 80% Production 20 %

2002

Indigenous Net Imports 47% Production 53 %

2003

Indigenous Net Imports 51% Production 49 %

14%

14%

18%

19%

49%

53%

12%

12%

3%

6%

Source: EU-forecast, EU Energy, Issue 86, July 2nd, 2004

Source: Eurogas

forecast of gas supply oecd europe
Forecast of Gas Supply – OECD Europe

Source: „Security of Gas Supply in Open Markets - LNG and power at a turning point“, Edition 2004 (OECD/IEA)

nabucco
Nabucco

New gas supply route to Europe from

Turkey to Austria

via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary

project partners
Project Partners
  • OMV
    • OMV Gas GmbH, Austria
  • MOL
    • MOL Natural Gas Transmission Ltd., Hungary
  • Transgaz
    • S.N.T.G.N. Transgaz S.A., Romania
  • Bulgargaz
    • Bulgargaz EAD, Bulgaria
  • BOTAS
    • Botas Petroleum Pipeline Corporation, Turkey
nabucco corporate structure

OGG

MOL

TG

BG

Botas

NN

1

Nabucco

Nabucco International

International

FINCO

Company

2

Nabucco

Nabucco

Nabucco

Nabucco

Nabucco

Austria

Hungary

Romania

Bulgaria

Turkey

Nabucco corporate structure
missing link between giant gas sources in bcm and potential markets
Missing link between giant gas sources (in bcm) and potential markets

4,000

47,570

1,770

33,530

4,520

supply sources for nabucco
Supply Sources for Nabucco

Azerbaidschan

10-14 bcm

Iran

10-20 bcm

Egypt

Iraq

8-10 bcm

nabucco gas pipeline strategic goals of project
Nabucco Gas Pipeline Strategic Goals of Project
  • Opening a new gas supply corridor for Europe from Middle East and Caspian regions
  • Raise transit profiles of participating project countries
  • Contribution to security of supply for partner countries and for Europe as a whole
  • Strengthening the turntable position of Austrian pipeline grid and the Hub Baumgarten within the European network
feasibility study phase findings technical study
Feasibility Study Phase - Findings Technical Study
  • Routing corridor defined
  • Border crossings fixed
  • Pipeline Diameter: 56“
  • Distance: 3,300 km
  • Investment: 4.6 bill. €

Project is

technically feasible

project phases
Project Phases

Feasibility Study

Develop-

ment

Constr.

1st step

2nd

step

Operating

& Marketing

final thoughts
Final thoughts...
  • Central Asia and Caucasus are neighbors of Europe and Iran
  • Europe is surrounded by sea of gas, Iran is one of them
  • Divergence is important in energy supply
  • Instability in CA&C has impacts to the both sides
  • Interpretation of Islam is a key factor in these areas.
  • Iran’s path to the free world is Europe via North, during tight situation.