Evaluation of Insect Resistance Management Models 昆虫抗性管理模型的评价

Evaluation of Insect Resistance Management Models昆虫抗性管理模型的评价 • Stage I Genetics (Validation) 阶段 I 遗传学（确认） • Stage II Biology and Ecology 阶段 II 生物学和生态学 • Stage III Toxin Distribution in Landscape 阶段 III 田间毒素分布 • Stage IV Management 阶段 IV 管理

Rate of Resistance Evolution耐受性进化的速度 • Current Frequency of Resistance Allele 抗性等位基因的目前发生率 • Dominance of Resistance Allele 抗性等位基因的优势 • Proportion of Transgenic and Refuge Fields 转基因和避难地的比例 • Arrangement of Transgenic and Refuge Fields 转基因和避难地的布局

Rate of Resistance Evolution耐受性进化的速度 • Current Frequency of Resistance Allele 抗性等位基因的目前频率 • Field Sampling, Bioassays and Genetic Testing 田间采样，生物测定和基因测试 • Dominance of Resistance Allele 抗性等位基因的优势 • Maintain High Toxicity and Breeding Programs 保持高毒性和繁殖 • Proportion of Transgenic and Refuge Fields 转基因和避难地的比例 • Regulate Sales and Grower Compliance 调节销售和生产的一致 • Arrangement of Transgenic and Refuge Fields 转基因和避难地的布局 • Grower Practices and Compliance 生产措施和认同

Increased Initial Allele Frequency Shortens Time to Resistance. 提高起始等位基因频率缩短产生抗性时间 Resistance Allele Frequency q0 = 0.01 q0 = 0.02 q0 = 0.005 抗性等位基因频率后代 Wss < Wrs < Wrr Transgenic 0.5 0.01 0.02 1.00 Refuge 0.5 1.00 1.00 1.00 转基因避难地

Resistance Evolves faster with Increased Dominance 随着优势增加抗性进化加快 Resistance Allele Frequency Wrs= 0.03 Wrs= 0.02 Wrs= 0.01 抗性等位基因频率后代 q0 = 0.005 Wss < Wrs < Wrr Transgenic 0.5 0.01 x.xx 1.00 Refuge 0.5 1.00 1.00 1.00 转基因避难地

Refuge Strategies Depend on High-Dose Crops Creating Functionally Recessive Heterozygote 避难区策略依赖于产生功能性隐性异质体的高剂量作物 Resistance Allele Frequency Dominant Wrs= 0.99 Recessive Wrs= 0.02 抗性等位基因频率 Codominance Wrs= 0.50 后代 Wss < Wrs < Wrr Transgenic 0.5 0.01 x.xx 1.00 Refuge 0.5 1.00 1.00 1.00 q0 = 0.005 转基因避难地

Proportion of Transgenic [ P(T) ] Affects Time to Resistance 转基因庄稼的比例影响产生抗性的比例 Resistance Allele Frequency P(T) = 0.80 P(T) = 0.40 P(T) = 0.50 抗性等位基因频率后代 q0 = 0.005 Wss < Wrs < Wrr Transgenic x.x 0.01 0.02 1.00 Refuge 1-T 1.00 1.00 1.00 转基因避难地

Assign Landscape 指定地块 New Year 新年 Mating 交配 Pre-Mating Dispersal 交配前扩散 New Generation 新一代 Oviposition 产卵 Post-Mating Dispersal 交配后扩散 Overwintering 过冬 Mortality 死亡 No Mortality 死亡 Bt Toxin Bt毒素 Insecticide 杀虫剂 Density Dependent 密度依赖性的 Density Independent 密度非依赖性的 End of Growing Season 生长季节结束 Yes

Assign Landscape 分配地块 New Year Mating 交配 Pre-Mating Dispersal 交配前扩散 New Generation Oviposition 产卵 Post-Mating Dispersal 交配后扩散 OverwinteringMortality No Mortality Bt Toxin Insecticide Density Dependent Density Independent Dispersal Behaviors of the Insect Interact with the Landscape Configuration to Determine the Genetic Distribution 昆虫扩散行为与地貌的相互作用决定遗传分布 End of Growing Season Yes

Non-Crop Areas 非作物区 Refuge 避难区 Transgenic 转基因植物区 Spatially Explicit Model with Stochastic Placement 随机布置的空间简要模型 Assign Crop Type and Location Randomly 随机分派作物类别和位置 Evaluate outcome from many iterations (100-1000’s) 评价不同迭代次数结果（100－1000 ’）

Non-Crop Areas 非作物区 Refuge 避难区 Transgenic 转基因植物区 Simulation Models influenced by landscape and insect dispersal behavior 模拟模型受土地和昆虫的扩散行为影响 Dispersal Distance of Adults before and after mating. 交配前后成虫的扩散距离

Non-Crop Areas 非作物区 Refuge 避难区 Transgenic 转基因植物区 Models Identify the Spatial Locations of Greatest Risk 模型区分最大风险的空间位置 Greatest Risk of Resistance Evolving 耐受性演化的高风险区

Non-Crop Areas 非作物区 Refuge 避难区 Transgenic 转基因植物区 Distribute Genetics According to Dispersal Behavior 根据扩散行为得到的基因分布 Dispersal Distance of Adult Insects: 2 fields, any direction 成虫扩散距离：2块地，任何方向

Non-Crop Areas 非作物区 Refuge 避难区 Transgenic 转基因植物区 “Hotspots” of Resistant Populations are most Likely to Develop Where Refuges Don’t Exist. 没有避难区的地方很可能产生群体抗性“热点” Greatest Risk of Resistance Evolving 抗性演化的高风险区

Non-Crop Areas 非作物区 Refuge 避难区 Transgenic 转基因区 Resistance Evolves First in a “Hotspot” and Disperses through the Population. 抗性在“热点”区产生后扩散 Resistant Population Disperses from Hotspots To Nearby Fields 抗性群体从热点区扩散到附近的地里

Assign Landscape 指定地块 New Year 新年 Mating 交配 Pre-Mating Dispersal 交配前扩散 New Generation 新一代 Oviposition 产卵 Post-Mating Dispersal 交配后扩散 Overwintering 过冬 Mortality 死亡 No Mortality 死亡 Bt Toxin Bt毒素 Insecticide 杀虫剂 Density Dependent 密度依赖性的 Density Independent 密度非依赖性的 End of Growing Season 生长季节结束 Yes

New Year Assign Landscape The Sequence and Magnitude of Mortality Events Can Change the Outcome. 死亡的次序和强度会改变结果 Pre-Mating Dispersal New Generation Mating Oviposition 产卵 Post-Mating Dispersal OverwinteringMortality No Mortality 死亡 Bt Toxin Bt毒素 Insecticide 杀虫剂 Density Dependent 密度依赖性的 Density Independent 密度非依赖性的 End of Growing Season Yes

Generations till Resistance Evolves Based on Theoretical Standards 基于理论标准产生抗性的后代后代转基因比例

Better Understanding of Evolutionary Theory Needed to Compare Different Landscape Management Strategies 更好的理解进化理论需要比较不同的土地管理方式后代转基因比例

Simulation Models are Time Consuming Often Truncated at 100-200 Generations 模拟模型是很耗时的经常会缩到100－200代后代转基因比例

Need to Understand the Confidence Boundaries Resulting from Landscape Management and Stochastic Inputs 需要理解由于土地管理和随机分布引起的置信区间后代 Faster 快 Slower 慢转基因比例

Evaluation of Insect Resistance Management Models 昆虫抗性管理模型的评价