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Discussion: Ensemble System Configuration (Hogsett/Bright). How to determine the optimal configuration (resolution, size, ICs/LBCs, physics, etc.)? Testing by EMC, DTC, and/or research community? How to optimize use of computational resources?

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discussion ensemble system configuration hogsett bright
Discussion: Ensemble System Configuration (Hogsett/Bright)
  • How to determine the optimal configuration (resolution, size, ICs/LBCs, physics, etc.)?
    • Testing by EMC, DTC, and/or research community?
  • How to optimize use of computational resources?
    • Global, mesoscale, and cloud-permitting ensembles?
    • Time-lagged ensembles?
  • Future of multi-center ensembles?
    • New “NAEFS” including ECMWF ensemble?
discussion ensemble forecasting and probabilistic guidance hogsett jirak
Discussion: Ensemble Forecasting and Probabilistic Guidance (Hogsett/Jirak)
  • How do we make best use of ensemble guidance?
    • NDFD remains deterministic
    • Ensemble visualization tools are underdeveloped
    • Filling the training gap for ensemble-based DSS
  • Division of labor between EMC and downstream users for probabilistic guidance development.
    • Is there a dividing line?
    • How to avoid duplication of effort?
    • Do users prioritize a high-quality underlying system or advanced post-processed products?
  • Role of virtual labs and cloud for development and data dissemination?