A PERCEPTION STUDY: CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY IN SOUTH ASIA

1. A PERCEPTION STUDY: CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY IN SOUTH ASIA Regional Meeting Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia 27 June, 2011, Dhaka, Bangladesh

2. Content • Objectives • Methodology • Farmers’ & Stakeholders’ Perception • Impact on Agriculture & Livelihoods • Findings from Other Stakeholders’ Survey • Way Forward

3. South Asia Extremely Vulnerable to Climate Change • Geographical Diversity • Dense Population • High Incidence of Poverty

4. Climate Change Vulnerability Index 2011

5. Objectives • Understand farmers’ experience on climate change and agricultural yield and real causes of climate change • Ascertain measures to ensure sustainable livelihoods • Assess perception of grassroots’ NGOs, sociologists, and agronomists • Assess stakeholders’ perceptions on regional food bank • Identify areas for further research

6. Methodology • CUTS (Consumer Unity & Trust Society, International) undertook this study with support from Oxfam Novib • Four countries involved: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan • Partners • Afghan Development Association (ADA) • Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) • Practical Action Bangladesh • Centre for Community Economics and Development Consultants Society (India)

7. Continued… • A total of 1200 small and marginal farmers • Geographically representative • All agro-climatic zones • Drawn from 3 districts and 10 villages • Official country level data • Household Characteristics • Nuclear and Joint • BPL and APL • Literate and Illiterate

8. Agro-Climatic Zones

9. Number Graph 3.5.1 Climate Change Impact Awareness 250 200 150 100 50 0 Afghanistan Bangladesh India Pakistan No Yes Farmers’ Awareness & Perception on Climate Change

10. Graph 3.5.2 Perception about Climate Change Occurrences Number 200 150 100 50 0 Afghanistan Bangladesh India Pakistan 0-10 years 11-20 years 21-30 years More than 30 years Continued…

11. Graph 3.5.3 Months Fluctuation in Length of Seasons in Afghanistan 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Winter Autumn Summer Spring Average Length at Present Average Length in the Past Change in Cropping Seasons

12. Graph 3.5.4 Months Fluctuation in Length of Seasons in Bangladesh 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Autumn Late Winter Summer Rainy Spring Autumn Average Length presently Avg. Length in the past Continued…

13. Graph 3.5.6 Percent (%) Intensity of Natural Hazards in South Asia 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Afghanistan Bangladesh India Pakistan Drought Flood Cyclone Dust Storm Storm Surge High Intensity Rainfall Frost Earthquake Hail Storm Landslide Fire Intensity of Natural Calamities

14. Responses Graph 3.5.10 Households' Perception on Food Unavailability 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Sometimes Sometimes Sometimes 0 Sometimes Never Never Never Rarely Rarely Never Often Rarely Often Often Often Rarely Afghanistan Bangladesh India Pakistan Households' Perception about Unavailability of Food Current Households' Perception about Unavailability of Food Reference year On Food Unavailability

15. Percent (%) Graph 3.5.22 Graph 3.5.24 Graph 3.5.25 Reason for Migration Trend in Migration Type of Migration Percent (%) Percent (%) 80 90 50 70 80 60 40 70 50 60 30 40 50 30 40 20 20 30 10 10 20 0 10 0 Afghanistan Bangladesh India Pakistan 0 Afghanistan Bangladesh India Pakistan Opportunity Need for more Social pressure Afghanistan Bangladesh India Pakistan (job search) income Seasonal Stress Permanent On Migration

16. Major Challenges • Declined livestock, manure and increased reliance on fertilizers • Declined pasture land and increased reliance on market for animal feed • Declined production and productivity, leading small farmers to further poverty

17. Major Adaptation Practices • Migration to nearby cities • Increased dependence on subsidized fertilizers • Crop Insurance • Use of improved variety of seeds • Loan dependence

18. Findings from Other Stakeholders’ Survey • Perception about occurrence of climate change • A key phenomenon observed over the past several decades • Intensity of climate change • Occurrences of Natural Hazards

19. Continued… • Perception of climate change impact • Changes in duration of seasons • Increase in average atmospheric temperature • Increase in frequency of natural calamities

20. Perception on Adaptive Steps taken by Farmers • Switching to climate resilient agriculture • Finger millet, Pearl millet etc. less sensitive to ambient temperature and CO2 content • But following mitigating strategies not adopted: • Reducing methane emissions from rice fields • Practicing better livestock management

21. Perception on What Farmers need to do • Replace water intensive crops • Increase adoption of water and soil conservation measures • Cultivate crops less sensitive to temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations • Diversify crops and use insurance as coping strategies

22. Way Forward • Focus on pro-poor policies • Bridge the gap of SAARC initiatives • Create a corpus fund - to raise resources that address adaptation strategies suitable to the country • Boost intraregional trade • Facilitate trans-boundary learning to quickly disseminate techniques

23. Thank You!