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Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years for Australians in their 70’s by behavioural risk factors Annette Dobson, Deirdre McLaughlin, Nancy Pachana, Julie Byles, Janni Leung, Kieran McCaul, Leon Flicker, Osvaldo Almeida, Derrick Lopez, Graeme Hankey. NHMRC/ARC Ageing Well,

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slide1

Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years for Australians in their 70’s by behavioural risk factors

Annette Dobson,Deirdre McLaughlin, Nancy Pachana, Julie Byles, Janni Leung, Kieran McCaul, Leon Flicker, Osvaldo Almeida, Derrick Lopez, Graeme Hankey.

NHMRC/ARC Ageing Well,

Ageing Productively Grant

background

Background

Demographic changes, increasing age and longer life expectancy mean that more people will live into their 70s and 80s.

aims of this study

Aims of this study

Provide valid estimates of the combined effects of major behavioural factors on risk of death within 10 years for men and women already in their 70s

Present the results using simple charts to communicate the importance of combinations of risk factors

australian longitudinal study on women s health

Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health

1921-1926 cohort

Health, well-being and health service use

Surveyed every 3 years: 1996 – to at least 2015

National – over 40,000 participants

Funded by Australian Department of Health & Ageing

health in men study

Health in Men Study

Aged 65-83

Screened in 1996-1999 for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

Followed up in 2001-2004 for HIMS study

Perth area only

Physical examination, biomarkers, questionnaire

Funded by NHMRC project grants

methods

Methods

N: 7438 women, 6053 men

Age: 71 to 79 years

Outcome: deaths from all causes

Follow-up: 10 year

slide7

Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for each sex separately; logistic regression for death within 10 years

slide8

Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years; numbers in the cells are predicted risk (%) calculated from the logistic regression models.

slide9

Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years; numbers in the cells are predicted risk (%) calculated from the logistic regression models.

slide10

Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years; numbers in the cells are predicted risk (%) calculated from the logistic regression models.

conclusions

Conclusions

Overall the risks of death were high, almost all exceeding 10% for women and 20% for men

Risks were substantially higher for men than women

For both sexes risk was highest those who:

were in the oldest age group

smoked

did not drink alcohol weekly or more

reported little physical activity