Social Policy toward Population Change . Chompoonuh K. Permpoonwiwat, Ph.D. School of Economics and Public Policy Srinakharinwirot University Bangkok, THAILAND. Topics . Population Change : A Case of Thailand Ageing Population: Celebration/Challenge? Social Policy/Programs?.
Chompoonuh K. Permpoonwiwat, Ph.D.
School of Economics and Public Policy
Key Factors affecting population composition and population structure
1. Thailand Population and the Rate of Increasing (Growth)
* HH survey from 1947-1959, 3.2%
(17.4 Million- 26.4 Million)
Policy Toward decreasing in birth rate and Fertility
2. Demographic Transition
2.2 Early Expanding Period
2.3 No Returning to the High Stationary
3. Age Structure
1980 the middle of transition where birth rate has decline significantly
2000 the end of the high stationary period
3. Urbanization and Urban Growth
Public Policy toward Aging Society
Consumption & Savings
Source: UN Population Division (2012)
- Canada 3 programs : Universal Demo grant at age 65, Earning related pension at age 60, and mean-tested transfer at age 60
- Italy = 35 years of Labor market Experience ( Started work 20 , Retries 55 get full Benefit)
"If men were angels,
no government would be necessary.”
Federalist Paper No. 51
Transitional Analysis of Social Security-related Expenditure and National Burden Ratio in Major Advanced Countries
In advanced countries,
- Especially in Japan, social security expenditure is increasing due to aging.
- As a consequence, burden is generally rising in these economies, though it has declined in Japan.
※National Burden Ratio = Total Taxes as a percentage of National Income (NI) + Social Security Contribution as a percentage of NI
Government Social Security-related Expenditures to GDP
National Burden to GDP
(Source) Social Security-related Expenditures: IMF “Government Finance Statistics Yearbook 2002”, OECD “Economic Outlook 76” , “Stat Extracts” and “National Accounts 2011 vol.II”
National Burden Ratio: OECD “National Account 2011 vol.II” and “ Revenue Statistics”, CAO “National Accounts” etc.
(Note )Figures represent the general government-based data (including the central/local governments and the social security funds).
In Japan, social security is realized through burden sharing by “self-help”, “mutual help” and “public help”. Actually, “self-help” is a foundation of burden sharing, complemented by “mutual help” to share risks of life mutually, and then, “public help” is positioned to provide the necessary security for life against situations which are not to be covered by “self-help” and “mutual help”.
The concept that people sustain their lives by working on their own and keep their good health on their own.
Health insurance (1961 – )
The systems based on social insurance: insurance payment would be provided in case of disease, old-age, need in long-term care , or unemployment. Subscribers would make premium payment, while public expenses which secured by tax revenues would cover a part of resources of insurance payment.
Pension insurance (1961 – )
Long-term care insurance (2000 – )
Employment insurance (1974 – )
Worker’s accident compensation insurance (1974 – )
The systems such as public assistance to ensure the healthy and cultured living of necessitous persons, as well as social welfare to provide a certain amount of goods and human services to the socially vulnerable.
Public assistance (1950 – )
Measures for the disabled, etc.
● Japanese Life Expectancy
● Ratio of People Older than 65 years to the Total Population
(Source) “Abridged Life Tables 2010” (Ministry of Health, Labour and
Welfare) (July, 2011)
(Source) Japan 1950-2010: “National Census” (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)
2011-2050: “Japanese Future Demographic Projections” (National Institute of Population and
Social Security Research) (January, 2012)
Other countries: “World Population Prospects: the 2010 Revision” (United Nations)
Population aging will progress furthermore in the future, and then, our country will face the severe society where one elderly person is supported by only one young person.
Making an environment to enable the elderly to work longer period.
- - ;
- - ;
- - ;
1.2 people will support 1 person aged 65 or over (estimates)
2.4 people support
1 person aged 65 or over
Efforts are needed to increase in people on the support side as much as possible through the social security reform.
9.1 people supported
1 person aged 65 or over
Population (thousand) / Component ratio
Assistance to child and child-raising
Age 65 and over
Age 19 and under
(Source) Ministry of Internal Affairs “National Census”, “Population Estimates”
National Institute of Population and Social Security Research “Population Projection for Japan (middle fertility and mortality projection)”
・ Most of expenditure increase is due to the growth of social security-related expenditure.
・ Increase of government bond issuance is due to the growth of social security-related expenditure as well as falling tax revenues.
(Unit: trillion yen)
National debt service
Special deficit-financing bonds
Pension related Special deficit-financing bonds
(Note) Data is based on Initial budget
Source: Japan Statistical Yearbook 2009
:This issue leads to big concern for Thai government about “the financial stability” of public finance to “provide social security services”.
divided by ages.
In Thailand, the social security system can be regarded as the mixed model
Source: Bank of Thailand (2012)
Potential PIT payers= 27 mil.
Pay PIT =9 mil.
Laborforce = 38 mil.
Unemployed = 0.7 mil.
Public debt to GDP
*** The critical issue is that Thailand is expected to reach a certain level of aging at the much lower levels of per capita GDP compared to Japan, South Korea and Singapore (UNFPA, 2010)
Source: adapted from ILO (2012b)
Who’s taking care of the elderly?0.76 million from 7.02 millions elderly population have (main) caregivers. 40.5 % are daughter, 28.0 % are spouse. To employ caregivers (as servant/employees) is 3.3%. (Source: การสำรวจผู้สูงอายุในประเทศไทย พ.ศ. 2550)
Health care system
The Thai health care systems are publicly managed
**These systems provide universal coverage for all citizens but their financing are relied heavily on tax revenue **
Independent Organization to Control and Manage
(Negotiate with Health Care Center and taking care of financial Situation)
การ Distribution of Risk
High Income Vs. Low Income
Healthy VS. Non Healthy
Working Gr. VsAging
UC 20 Million
UC (with families) 30 Million
SSS (with families)30 Million