Population World Population Change

1. Population World Population Change • In the past population change has often seen times of decline as well as growth. • There have been rapid growth since last century. • Accelerating rates of growth a recent phenomenon. • Growth caused not by massive increase in birth rates, but reduction in death rates. • Pandemics (Worldwide epidemics, e.g.. Black death) which regularly reduced populations have all but disappeared. Birth Rate – Death Rate = Natural Increase (this does not include Migration) • Over the last 200 years, populations have increased mainly due to improved agriculture, expanding economies, improved health care, better diets, fewer wars.

2. With death rates falling, life expectancy has continued to increase rapidly. World Average 1900- 30 years 1950-46 years 1988-63 years However this was only an average 1988-73 yrs in developed countries 1988-60 yrs in developing countries. • Extremely high death rates in West Africa, East Africa and South Asia. • High infant mortality is responsible for about 1/3 of death rates. • Decline in death rates not always due to improved living standards but to health campaigns, education about hygiene and prevention of disease. • Development , especially against diseases e.g.. Malaria, Polio, Typhoid, Cholera, have reduced rates in developed countries. • In developing nations, falling death rates and high birth rates have forced governments to attempt to lower the birth rate to stop the increased pressure on land, jobs, education etc. • Recent growth rates in European and advanced nations have slowed this century some have faced an overall population decrease (Sweden), while many African and Asian nations have experienced rapid increase.

3. Measuring Population Change Important Factors • Number of births over a given period of time : Fertility. • Number of deaths over a given period of time: Mortality • Number of people moving in and out of an area: Migration. • Crude birth rates is the number of births per thousand people in one year. • Infant mortality rate: the number of infant deaths under one year per 1000 live births.

4. Fertility Fertility can vary greatly from 40-50 per 1000 in some developing countries to 10 in some developed nations e.g.. Italy Asia/Africa Highest Europe/North America Lowest The crude birth rate is a very good indicator of levels of development. Reasons for declining birth rates : Education/literacy, improved health care, employment opportunities, family planning, late marriages, equality for women, migration to cities, more equal income distribution, rising living standards. In many developed / developing countries, rates of fertility can very due to religion, income, class etc Mortality Decline in death rates has caused the increase in population. Life expectancy has increased due to falls in death rate.

5. Differential Mortality Death rates are becoming more equal at global, however, large disparities still exist. Differences exist between people of different social class, economic status (wealth), racial gap, urban/rural. Those who are most seriously underprivileged groups of people live in the lowest quality housing, highest overcrowding, poorest diet and poorest medical care. Death rates are affected by social economic and environmental causes. Death rates are usually higher amongst males than females however, in countries where the status of women is low, the death rates are comparable. Environmental causes are important, such as drought, flood, earthquakes etc. In Britain the death rates are increased in winter, especially old people or others whose health is poor. With death rates falling all over the world, the main causes of population growth, especially in developing nations is due to fertility. In developed nations, death rates are unlikely to fall much more.

6. THE CENSUS PURPOSE (The reasons why a government takes a census) Every ten years a census is taken with forms sent to every house in the country and completed on the same day. Information on population can also be collected from ‘Vital Registrations’ where every birth and death is recorded. The Governments also keeps a record of every migrant entering or leaving the country. This allows the Government to plan and budget for the next decade in terms of – • Health care – where to locate hospitals, what size, demographic (age group focus), type of wards required, etc. • The government needs to know how much pensions will cost in the future. • Education – more children means more schools required and less children means school closures. • Industry and employment – to identify where new industrial sites should be located. To identify skills shortages which allows the govt to train new teachers etc. • Transport – where people are living and where to build roads/ railways (e.g. HS2 railway London to West Midlands). • Benefits such as invalidity – to calculate expected expenditure.

7. The Government, industry and commerce who need to know about changes in population size and age structure to assess the needs of people from the “Cradle to the Grave”. • As a means of assessing the success of healthcare and family planning programme.

8. METHOD (No need to copy this slide. Just read through it). A census form is distributed to each household in Britain by an enumerator. The household is given a certain amount of time to complete the form accurately. The enumerator collects the form and checks for incomplete information. The details are then analysed and reports produced for the different government departments. Households which fail to complete a census form could be fined. Questions asked include: 1. Number living in household – tells us if population is increasing or decreasing. 2. Ages- of the people tells if population is older or people having more children. 3. Education – shows literacy levels. 4. Employment – shows changes in industry 5. Medical problems – shows health spending. 6. Length of time in house – for housing developments and planning.

9. Describe how the government gather population data between censuses • Between censuses there is compulsory registration of births, deaths and marriages by the General Register Office for each part of the UK. The other main changes are brought about by emigration and immigration - the Home Office’s UK Border Agency records UK migration. • Also mini censuses are carried out such as the 2009 Census Rehearsal for England and Wales as well as government sponsored sample surveys of population and social trends.

10. The Census in Developing Countries (Problems of taking a census) Many developing countries are unable to produce accurate information regarding population figures because of problems with completing a census. 1. The cost of a census is huge – printing, computers, labour – are just some of the Outlays which many developing world countries can’t afford as they have more important priorities eg Health and Education. 2. Some countries have many different languages spoken. This means that they will have to hire translators and print the forms in different languages which is very expensive and produce many different forms. 3.Literacy is another problem. In some countries literacy can be as low as 50%. This means scribes will have to be hired which is expensive and very time consuming. 4.Distribution of the census can pose problems. Villages may be unmapped and the terrain may be hard to cross. Nepal with its mountains is extremely difficult to travel 5.Nomadic people are often not included in the census. Although the number of nomadic people has declined some desert areas still have groups e.g.. Tuareg of the Sahel. They can be missed out or counted twice.

11. 6. Even if population numbers for a country are accurate, information such as the percentage living in urban areas may not be accurate. Everyday thousands of people flock to the city in search of work e.g. Brazil. 7. War will affect census information or prevent a census from taking place. Many parts of the country is too dangerous for Government employees. 8. Many people will lie on the forms either they are illegal immigrants or in China they want to hide how many children they have due to the ‘One Child policy. 9. Population size- some countries like India and china have huge populations which take a long time to count and distribute forms to. It is such an expensive and time consuming activity.

12. Measuring population change: The Demographic Transition Model http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18854073 Stage 1 Here both birth rates and death rates fluctuate at a high level (about 35 per 1000) giving a small population growth. Wide base means high birth rate and high infant mortality rate. Narrow apex means high Death rate and low life expectancy. Birth rates are high because: • No birth control or family planning • So many children die in infancy that parents tend to produce more in the hope that several will live. • Many children are needed to work on the land. • Children are regarded as a sign of virility • Religious beliefs (e.g.. Roman Catholics, Muslims and Hindus) encourage large families. • Parents have many to look after them when they are old as there is no state pension. Demographic Transition Model

13. High death rates, especially among children are due to: • Disease and plague (bubonic, cholera, kwashiorkor) • Famine, uncertain food supplies, poor diet. • Poor hygiene – no piped clean water and no proper sewage disposal. • Little medical science – few doctors, hospitals, drugs.

14. Stage 2 Birth rates remain high but death rates fall rapidly to about 20 per 1000 people giving a rapid population growth. The fall in death rate results from: • Improved medical care – vaccinations, hospitals, doctors, new drugs and scientific inventions. • Improvements in sanitation and water supply. • Improvements in food production (both quality and quantity)] • Improved transport to more food, doctors etc. • A decrease in child mortality.

15. Stage 3 Birth rates fall rapidly to perhaps 20 per 1000 people while death rates continue to fall slightly (15 per 1000 people) to give a slowly increasing population. The fall in birth rates may be due to : • Family planning- contraceptives, sterilisation, abortion and government incentives. • A lower infant mortality rate therefore less need to have so many children. • Increased industrialisation and mechanisation meaning fewer labourers are needed. • Increased desire for material possessions (car, holidays, bigger homes) and less for large families. • Emancipation of women, enabling them to follow their own career rather than being solely child bearers.

16. Stage 4 Both birth rates (10 per 1000) and death rates (12 per 1000) remain low, fluctuating slightly to give a steady population. Stage 5 Birth rates fall below death rates populations begin to decline. For example Italy, Sweden. One child per family becomes the norm. Birth rates are especially low in the 16 to 29 age groups. Women have children much later, the main cause of this is a materialistic society and women having careers. (Declining population)

17. Dependency This is an illustration of active people in a population compared with those who are inactive. In the developed world there are fewer children and more aged whereas in the developing world there are more children and fewer aged. In the active bracket (15-64) consideration will be given to the following – 1. Children who stay on at school until they are 18. 2. Further education (17-23) 3. Long and short term unemployed. 4. Physically and mentally handicapped. 5. Prisoners. 6. Illegal workers. All of the above are included in the active bracket but will not pay taxes therefore do not contribute to the economy of the country.

18. CONSEQUENCES OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD. The population of the developing world has grown at an alarming rate. It has created problems in rural and urban areas. Pressure of population has resulted in a continual stream of people moving into the cities. Some of the problems include – 1. Lack of housing – Authorities cannot cope with the burgeoning population. There is no money or time to build new housing and so squatter settlements develop. These squatter settlements lack basis amenities such as toilets, running water and electricity. 2. Unemployment is a major problem in developing world cities. Benefits are not available for the population so people resort to begging, crime and illegal work. 3. Disease spreads in the squatter settlements because of inadequate sewage disposal. Raw sewage passes through the streets where pipes and drains are exposed. This may contaminate water supplies, spreading cholera, which can be fatal if not treated.

19. 4. A large population created a massive amount of waste. Cities lack space to accommodate the rubbish. Rubbish dumps are idea habitats for rats which can also spread disease. 5. Congestion is another consequence of city growth. Too many vehicles curtail traffic movement and pollute the environment. 6. Developing countries are poor and they are unable to keep up with the needs of a rapidly expanding population. Therefore not enough schools are being built to educate the population and the health services are unable to provide health for the whole population. • Due to the rapidly growing population there will not be enough land in the countryside. This causes starvation and forces people to migrate to already overcrowded cities. • The environmental cost of overpopulation will be over cultivation and overgrazing of marginal areas as people try to feed themselves. This will cause soil erosion and desertification in many countries. • Future conflicts, within and between countries, over scarce resources like water will occur. • With a growing population there will be a huge cheap workforce which will benefit industry in being able to be very competitive on a global scale. This is called a demographic dividend.

20. Policies to reduce population 1. Wide scale introduction of birth control and free distribution of contraceptives. 2. Education of women regarding need to use birth control and how to use it (remember many women are illiterate). 3. Work with Church in an attempt to change attitudes towards family planning. 4. Sterilisation campaign – in the 1970’s the Indian government encouraged males to be sterilised in return for a free radio! In many countries it is the females who are sterilised . 5. One child policy some success but difficult to enforce and in some cases in China the policy became too authoritarian. 6. Later marriages reduces the time for women to have children and thus the birth rate. • The age of marriage could be raised. • Govts can reward small families with benefits and vice versa. • Keeping girls on at school has been proven to be an effective way to reduce the birth rate.

21. Consequences of Contracting population in the Developed World (Not enough young people and too many old). • Low birth rate and death rate with high life expectancy will result in an increasing ageing population. Dependency will be high. With low birth rate there will be a smaller work force, taxes will be increased in order to pay for pensions, national health (older population more likely to suffer from poor health), home help and nursing homes. • “Only children” may become more usual. They may have difficulty coping with ageing parents both financially and emotionally. • Initially with a contracting population schools and hospitals will close resulting in unemployment. • In time a smaller workforce could create problems for industry – Fewer skilled workers Fewer unskilled workers Fewer Managers Fewer scientists :- less research. • With less babies being born industries like pram makers and toy shops will close down resulting in job losses.

22. Elderly people can be an advantage in a population – “family values” e.g. respect, wisdom, care and tradition. • With a lower young population the government will save money on services like education which can then be invested to help the growing amount of elderly people. • Younger retired people contribute lots to the economy.  They have reasonable amounts of money and lots of leisure time hence are good consumers. We have already seen the rise of the "silver surfer", older people who surf the internet! • Many retired people do voluntary work in schools and for charities that is essential work but done for FREE. • Many retired grandparents are now fulfilling child care roles for their grandchildren as the cost of child care rises.  This vital role unifies the extended family and allows parents to work and contribute to the economy.

23. Policies to increase population (case study Sweden) 1. Encourage immigrants into the country who also tend to increase the birth rate in a country. 2. Free or subsidised child care which reduces the financial burden of having more children. 3. Increased child benefits and parent support to encourage people to have more than two kids. 4. Prohibit abortions (Romania prior to revolution in 1990). This led to women having “back street” abortions. 5. Put a charge on contraceptives and family planning consultations. 6. Increase maternity leave (paid maternity leave and introduce paternity leave). 7. Provide crèches at workplaces.

24. Migration (No need to copy) Migration is the movement of population including a change in residence for a substantial duration. 1. International migration – from one country to another e.g. people from Pakistan and India moving to Britain in 1960’s (voluntary migration). Albanian’s moving to Britain in 1999 (forced migration). 2. Internal migration – within a country e.g. highlanders moving to Glasgow (18th Century – present day continual process – voluntary migration), people from East Belfast burned out of their homes (forced migration). 3. Some semi-permanent migration – for several years e.g. Oil workers living in the Gulf (voluntary). 4. Urban/rural migration – moving from the city to the countryside due to less pollution, less crime, cheaper housing, better living standards. 5. Rural/urban – moving from countryside to the city. Very common in the ELDCs. 6. Daily migration – people travel to Glasgow for work (commuters from surrounding areas).

25. Emigration – to leave a country Immigration – to enter a country Most migrants consist of young adults. Age-sex structure for Turks in Germany

26. Voluntary Migration – Pull Factors • Family, friends, relative abroad. • New areas opened up (e.g.. Canada, Australia, New Zealand) to find jobs or better pay. • Better services and amenities (hospitals, schools, shops, entertainment). • A better climate (especially in retirement e.g.. Spain for British old age pensioners)

27. Forced Migration - Push Factors • Lack of food due to famine, overcrowding and poverty. • Over population – the number of people living in an area exceeds the resources available. • Natural disasters such as Floods in Bangladesh, drought in Ethiopia and earthquakes in Turkey. • Racial discrimination (e.g.. Kurds in Iraq) • Wars causing large numbers of refugees e.g.. Afghanistan and Sudan.

28. Voluntary Migration Case Study- India/Pakistan to Britain Migration from developing countries to developed countries: Asians from Pakistan/India to Britain in 1950’s and 1960’s. Push Factors(factors which forced people to leave India) • Massive unemployment in India means there are millions unemployed and leave the country to seek work. • Poverty caused by poor housing/no sanitation/poor health care. • Few Prospects (educational or jobs). In rural parts of India many children don’t go to school and have very little access to healthcare which forces people to leave the country. • Lack of land due to the inheritance system in India and massive overpopulation forces people to migrate away. Mechanisation of farms also meant there was less jobs in rural areas which forced people to move away.

29. Pull Factors(attractions of Britain) • British Government encouraged Asians into the country to fill the posts that “whites” would not consider (e.g.. Bin men, road sweeper, bus driver). This was in the 50’s and 60’s when Britain was in an economic surge. • Asians were also encouraged by free health care(National health service) and education prospects. • Family ties (from previous migrants) made it easier to settle in a foreign country as relatives could help them with accommodation, finding a job etc. • Find better jobs with better pay and prospects and some of the money couild be sent back to family in India. Advantages to losing Country/Country of origin (India) • Migration relieves population pressure in the area of origin ( Punjab in India). Population pressure in the Punjab resulted in mass deforestation, over cultivation, over-grazing, which led to soil erosion. With lower population density development is now feasible. • Many immigrants send money back to their families who will use the money to improve their standard of living. • Birth rate will be reduced as it mainly young people who migrate thereby slowing down population growth

30. After a number of years many immigrants return home with skills to improve the areas they came from e.g.. Better farming methods, engineers, doctors, business skills Disadvantages to the losing Country/Country of Origin(India) • Young people tend to leave leaving the elderly to work the land and this is less productive • “Brain-drain” – the educated people are ‘forced’ to migrate to find work. People who have a good education in the developing world will often migrate to the developed world because job prospects are better and salaries are higher. About 25% of staff in the NHS is made up from people from India and Pakistan. • Population imbalance is left as more males than female will migrate from India • Families are broken up for many years and many are never reunited.

31. Advantages to the country of destination/receiving country(Britain) • With an influx of migrants a country will adopt many cultural aspects e.g.. Food – Indian and Chinese, popular music – West Indian reggae music, Notting Hill Carnival, athletics and sports. • Britain received a lot of skilled workers as well as a source of cheap labour to fill jobs that at the time were not wanted ie. bin men, road sweepers etc • Industry benefited with having a cheaper workforce so was more competitive on a global scale. Disadvantages to the country of destination/receiving country • Racial tension is a problem that can arise from migration. Britain and U.S.A. have experienced this in riots and gang warfare. • In the 1970’s there was a economic recession and now these migrants were competing for jobs against British people which caused resentment.

32. Migrants need to be provided with health care and education which is a strain on scarce resources. • Low paid workers tend to suffer most from migrants entering the country who are prepared to work longer hours for less money *** Always choose the losing country (origin) if you are given the choice as there is more to say.*****

33. Case Study- Syria Causes and impacts

36. President of Syria • Bashar al-Assad • Since 17 July 2000 • Syrian Ba'ath Party • The Ba’ath Party have ruled since 1963 after a successful coup

37. *The Syrian Civil War • The conflict began on 15 March 2011 with demonstrations against the Government by those seeking to oust the Ba’ath Party • Protesters demanded the abolition of Syria's 48-year emergency law, more freedoms, and an end to government corruption.

38. Forced Migration: Syria Push Factors (things which forced people out of Syria) • In April 2011, the Syrian Army was deployed to quell the uprising, and ordered to open fire on demonstrators • Ethnic cleansing of different groups from many areas of Syria, eg Christians. • Death total had exceeded 170,000, many more have been injured. • To escape the violence, as many as 3 million Syrian refugees have fled to neighbouring countries. • Tens of thousands of protesters have been imprisoned without trial. • Government and opposition forces guilty of severe human rights violations.

39. TRAVELLING WITH SYRIAN MIGRANTS - BBC NEWS (3 mins) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIr6LnTEilk Jordan - Thousands of Syrian Refugees Arrive (2.30 mins) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRlXRtnplMs

40. ‘Pull’ Factors of neighbouring countries like Lebanon(Good things about Lebanon) • More than 3 million refugees have been flooding into neighbouring countries where many have relatives and therefore would have somewhere to stay. • Lebanon and Syria share a massive border of 365 km so it is logical most people would go there as it’s the easiest safe place to get to. • These countries also have similar languages and religions to many Syrians. Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey which makes it easy to integrate into a new country.

41. Future prospects – for example safety from violence and the persecution of the Syrian army. • Children can receive an education and many can find work. • Lots of jobs available in Lebanon which has a booming economy. • Aid in the form of food, water, shelter, clothing and medicine is also available from the UN and charities

42. Advantages to the losing/donor country Syria - Less people to join either side in the civil war, less people can be killed or injured. Disadvantages of migration on DONOR/losing country Syria  • Estimated that 2 million have been internally displaced as a result of the fighting. • Less people to do jobs and keep the economy going, • Disappearance of social communities and culture • Families are torn apart • The economy has collapsed and will take decades to recover. • The wounds of the internal conflict will last for many decades even when the fighting is over.

43. Advantages to the country of destination/ RECEIVING country(Lebanon): • The arrival of aid agencies injected new money into the Lebanese economy which benefited the local area. • Local businesses benefited from the arrival of an abundant cheap labour source for industry.  • Going forward the govt will receive more taxes by having a bigger workforce within the country which it can use to invest in the country. • Large segments of the national economy in Lebanon benefited directly or indirectly from the increasing demand for goods and services, as well as the flow of foreign aid from donor countries. • Cultural benefits like new foods and cultures are being introduced into the country which enriches the country. • Land owners and property owners are making huge profits due to increased demand from the new migrants.

44. Disadvantages to the country of destination/ receiving country(lebanon): • Refugees have put a strain on resources such as water and electricity within the country which has impacted the whole country. • Many are still living in tents with basic sanitation which has lead to outbreaks of disease within parts of Lebanon. • Massive strain on health and education as these refugees need to be provided with these services. This led to an outbreak of scabies in Lebanon. • Some towns populations have doubled leading to shanty towns developing in the major towns • Food prices have increased due to increased demand which has led to resentment within Lebanon. • Racial tension has increased within Lebanon between different religions due to the influx of so many people from Syria.

45. Barriers to Migration 1. It is difficult to get permission to migrate to another country. Eg visa or green card 2. Moving to another country with a different language and culture is very difficult. 3. It is very expensive to pay for transport. 4. Huge distances involved in travelling e.g.. Britain to Australia.

47. Back to Slide 12