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What Program Areas And In Which State Regions Do We Need To Grow? Part I Commission on Higher Education Access and Attai

What Program Areas And In Which State Regions Do We Need To Grow? Part I Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment December 10, 2012. Part A Introduction. 2. Key Questions. 3. Shorter-term

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What Program Areas And In Which State Regions Do We Need To Grow? Part I Commission on Higher Education Access and Attai

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  1. What Program Areas And In Which State Regions Do We Need To Grow? Part I Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment December 10, 2012

  2. Part AIntroduction 2

  3. Key Questions 3 • Shorter-term • What industries and occupations are projected to be in greatest demand in Florida between now and 2020? • State-wide • By region • Operationalizing an example of Gap Analysis: What is the gap between projected demand and potential supply for I.T.? • State-wide • For what regions • If we accept BOG degree projections to 2020, what is the potential demand for graduates in top occupations? • Longer-term • Does the Commission envision a more ambitious future for Florida – with demand for higher levels of education for future workers? If so, what is the benchmark (an overall growth factor)? The Big 4 states? High Performing States? Other?

  4. Definition of Terms 4 Demand:Degree-holders employers are projected to need Supply:Degree-holders the higher education system can potentially generate Total Employment: All non-agricultural jobs in Florida Total Openings:The combined job openings from both growth and replacement Annual Openings:The projected job openings each year Growth Job: Additional jobs above and beyond the replacement jobs total Replacement Job: Job vacancy created by retirees and leavers Industry Sectors: Employer industry categories of FL DEO & U.S. Dept. of Labor SOC Codes: Standard Occupational Classification codes (FL DEO & U.S. DOL) IPEDS: Federal Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (U.S. Dept. of Education) CIP Codes: Classification scheme for curricular disciplines and majors (IPEDS degree categories, U.S. DOE)

  5. 5 Part B The Current Demand Picture

  6. Florida Employment 6 • Florida’s recession job loss was huge. • Projecting supply, demand and gaps is especially challenging in this economic climate. • Employment levels dropped to what they were almost a decade ago. • Recovery is projected to be slower than past recoveries. • More unemployed Floridians with college degrees will be seeking jobs alongside newly graduated degree-holders in the future. • Florida is projected to gain more than one million new jobs between 2012 and 2020 (1.6% annual growth). • The unemployment rate is forecast to decline to 6.5% by 2020, and projected total employment will be just over 9 million jobs.

  7. FloridaOccupational Employment by Educational Requirement U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Education Codes Projected 10,000,000 9,000,000 372,300 288,500 8,000,000 317,900 1,257,000 1,185,200 Master's and above 7,000,000 1,106,950 518,900 305,300 448,100 495,500 Bachelor's Degree 6,000,000 435,150 1,743,450 Associate's Degree s b 5,000,000 o J 3,908,500 Postsecondary Vocational 4,000,000 1,691,400 3,524,200 High School Diploma 3,000,000 Less than High School 2,000,000 3,244,100 1,000,000 2,255,400 2,540,800 0 2012 2004 2020 Occupational Employment by Educational Requirement (Projected to 2020) 7 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program. Prepared: October 2012. Source: Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics, Ctr., Employment Projections Program, Prepared Oct. 2012

  8. Florida Projected Job Openings Requiring a Bachelor's Degree or Higher Cumulative Growth 2012 - 2020 - (BLS Education Codes) 450,000 Column A 400,000 Column B 350,000 300,000 250,000 393,498 200,000 338,579 150,000 Column C 100,000 104,322 50,000 2012 - 2020 2012 - 2020 2012 - 2020 0 Requiring a Bachelor's Requiring a Bachelor’s Requiring a Master's or Higher (RNs included) (RNs excluded) Florida Projected Job Growth and Replacement (Baccalaureate Level and Higher) 8 Job Openings (Growth and Replacement) Source: Florida Dept.of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Ctr. Employment Projections Program. Prepared Oct. 2012

  9. Current Jobs Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree by Industry in Florida (2012) 9 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released September 2012.

  10. Total Jobs: Workforce Demand within Industriesby Educational Level (if current trends continue) 10 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released September 2012. (*Projections rounded to the nearest 100.)

  11. Annual Average Occupational DemandGrowth by Specific Occupation (Baccalaureate Level) 11 Source: Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Ctr., Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released Sept.2012. NOTE: Data rounded by FL Board of Governors.

  12. 12 Part C Regional Considerations in Workforce Demand

  13. Florida’s Workforce Regions 13

  14. Greatest Number of Annual Openingsby Workforce Region 14 SOURCE: Board of Governors staff analysis of Dept. of Economic Opportunity 2011-19 Occupational Projections. NOTE: DEO 2020 projections have been rounded to the nearest tens digit.

  15. Part DGap Analysis 15

  16. CIP: Classification of Instructional Program 16 CIP codes provide more detailed information on degree production at the two-digit, four-digit, and six-digit levels, respectively. CIP Code 11: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services 11.02 Computer Programming 11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer General 11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification 11.08 Computer Software and Media Applications 11.0803 Computer Graphics 11.0804 Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation

  17. Elements of a Demand-SupplyGap Analysis 17 Educational Institutions (SUS, FCS, ICUF, CIE) USDOL & National Crosswalk Center Employers In Florida US Dept. of Education (NCES/IPEDS) SUPPLY DEMAND

  18. Step 1 of Supply-Demand ‘Gap’ Analysisfor Computer Occupations, SOC 15-11 (as an example) 18 1st step: Identify the 6-Digit SOC/CIP relationships for Computer Occupations CIP codes in RED are associated with more than one SOC code.

  19. Step 2 of Supply-Demand ‘Gap’ Analysisfor Computer Occupations (as an example) 19 2nd Step: Total Projected Demand and Determine Unduplicated Supply *Note: Due to individual CIP codes being associated with more than one SOC code, considerable duplication of degree graduate counts occur at the six-digit SOC/CIP level. Rolling the analysis up to the three-digit SOC level provides a more accurate Gap Analysis of Demand/Supply.

  20. Which Emerging Businesses Should Be a First Priority for a Gap Analysis? 20 • Aviation & Aerospace • Clean Technology • Solar • Biofuels • Storage • Ocean • Smart Grid • Advanced Materials & Products • Green Buildings • Water • Air & Environment • Financial/Professional Services • Homeland Security/Defense • Information Technology • Modeling, Simulation, and Training • Photonics/Optics • Digital Media • Software & Computer System Design • Computer & Microelectronics • Telecommunications • Life Sciences • Biotech • Medical Devices • Pharmaceuticals • Health Care

  21. Part EThe Longer-Term Future for Florida? 21

  22. Re-cap: Florida’s National Rankings 22 • % of 18-24 yr. olds enrolled in college: 31st • High school to college continuation rate: 38th • % of 2010 population with a bachelor’s or higher: 37th • Bachelor’s degrees per 18-24yr population: 34th • Per capita gross domestic product: 40th • Per capita net earnings: 45th • Knowledge jobs in 2010 New Economy Index: 33rd

  23. Case Examples (Baccalaureate Level) 23

  24. Workforce DemandIs Florida’s Projected Workforce Demand Competitive with Other States? 24 SOURCE: Projections Central - State Occupational Projections

  25. Questions and Next Steps 25 • Is the gap analysis method appropriate? • Focus first on under-supply relative to projected demand • Use six-digit SOCs and CIPs, but aggregate at the three-digit SOC levels • Use the 24 workforce regions to customize demand • Should we accept the status quo for baccalaureate degree production . . . . or consider a more ambitious, competitive future for Florida?

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