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Time Series – from Achieved to Excellence

Time Series – from Achieved to Excellence

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Time Series – from Achieved to Excellence

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  1. Time Series –from Achieved to Excellence

  2. AS: Time Series Using the statistical enquiry cycle to investigate time series data involves: • using existing data sets • selecting a variable to investigate • selecting and using appropriate display(s) • identifying features in the data and relating this to the context • finding an appropriate model • using the model to make a forecast • communicating findings in a conclusion.

  3. Excellence! Investigate time series data, with justification and statistical insight involves integrating statistical and contextual knowledge throughout the statistical enquiry cycle, and may include reflecting about the process; considering other relevant variables; evaluating the adequacy of any models; or showing a deeper understanding of models.

  4. Statistical insight involves integratingstatistical and contextual knowledge

  5. Road to excellence? You need to: understand/relate to the context research it properly and write with insight. They need a structure to work to in order to organise your brains. They need to be familiar with the language of statistics. Fake it until you make it

  6. Understand and relate to context

  7. Attendance in New Zealand Schools 2012 Something you are familiar with

  8. Attendance in New Zealand Schools 2012 Note the date of the data set

  9. Why are we interested in this investigation? “There has been increasing community, political, and education sector concern over absence from school.” (Mallari, Loader, 2013) Always use referencing

  10. Background A national survey of state primary and secondary schools in New Zealand in 1977 (Taylor, Sturrock and White 1982) reported that the unjustified absence rate in primary schools was 0.69%, and in secondary schools it was 1.4%. Berwick-Emms (1987).

  11. Broader context – Underlying issue - Referencing The problem of truancy is shared throughout the world (see Reid 1987, Andrews 1986). Whitney (1994:15), a British researcher, notes that ‘Truancy, like poverty, has a lengthy past history, and the two have always been closely related. “Chronic absenteeism is most prevalent among low income students.” Balfanz, 2012

  12. Data Source •

  13. Survey Details The Ministry of Education survey on attendance was carried out in the week 11-15 June, 2012 The response rate was 88% Schools recording absences on the paper form were required to make their own judgementas to whether a student was absent for all or part of a day, and whether that absence was justified based on the definitions and instructions supplied.

  14. Are comparisons valid? The survey was carried out in the week of 11-15 June 2012, close to the middle of the second school term. This week was the same week of term as the 2009 and 2011 surveys. By analysing data from a similar time of year, factors such as winter illness would have been at broadly similar levels.

  15. Perspective - numbers In 2012, approximately 62,000 students were absent from school for all or part of a day during the survey week. Of these, 15,000 students were unjustifiably absent from school.

  16. Tables to visual

  17. Not very good for the messages we want from the data

  18. Who would be interested and why?

  19. Is this a real decrease or is it pressure on schools by the Ministry to deal with absences?

  20. Main features:Time periods are not at equal intervalsTotal: Between about 10% and 12%Peak: ≈12% in 2009Drop or leveling out since 2009

  21. Similarities/Differences/ReasonsWhat other questions should be asked?

  22. What might be different in the previous graphs if we just looked at secondary?

  23. or Decile

  24. Gender and year level

  25. Ethnicity

  26. Regions – is there a link with poverty

  27. Time Series

  28. Always ask questions about it. What would it look like at our school? What might be different?

  29. All births in the US 1978

  30. A snippet

  31. A snippet Why is this Thursday lower than usual?

  32. Births in NZ 2011

  33. September

  34. December births

  35. Researching and Referencing

  36. Why Reference? Referencing is necessary to avoid plagiarism. It allows others to follow up and read what other researchers (writers) have to say about the topic. It will become part of your university life.

  37. Style I encourage my students to use APA referencing as it is often used in university courses.

  38. Mobile Data Usage September 9, 2013 September 16, 2013

  39. Good site for starting

  40. You can search by dates


  42. Google search tools

  43. Do not use sites like wikipedia, reddit etc., Go to the referenced sites. “Wikipedia acknowledges that it should not be used as a primary source for research.” The main problem is the lack of authority.

  44. Create references as you go.

  45. Form of Assessment

  46. Structure

  47. Briefly • Concise sentences • Passive form (avoid “I”), use impersonal verbs. • Correct tense • Use a writing frame • Vocabulary

  48. PROBLEM and PLAN Understanding and defining the problem. Time series is essentially an investigation into ‘what has already happened and what then is likely to happen’ with consideration of how valid it all is.

  49. Introduction • State the investigation. • Research related to choosing particular variables- not just general research.