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Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución de la Energía Nuclear en España.

El suministro mundial de petróleo y gas natural : incertidumbres y desafíos Mariano Marzo (Facultat de Geologia, UB). Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución de la Energía Nuclear en España.

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Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución de la Energía Nuclear en España.

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  1. El suministro mundial de petróleo y gas natural: incertidumbres y desafíosMariano Marzo(Facultat de Geologia, UB) Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución de la Energía Nuclear en España. 4ª Sesión Temática. “La cobertura de la demanda energética en España y la energía nuclear” Ministerio de Industria, Turismo y Comercio. Madrid, 19-4-2004

  2. Basically since we have futures markets in oil, the expectations on long term price of oil were extraordinarily stable - at around 20$/bl.That meant that, at all times, and whatever the actual spot price was, oil prices were expected to come back (upwards, or downwards, depending on where it would be then) to that level. The view of the market on future prices of oil has changed in the past 2 years. The market expects oil prices to still be around 60-70$/bl 5 years from now, and not to drift down to 20$/bl or somewhere in between. 11-S Irak War

  3. Ratio of Natural Gas Prices to Oil Price IEA, WEO 2004

  4. Downstream and upstream problems

  5. The visible part of the iceberg

  6. Cumulative oil and gas discoveries and new wildcat wells drilled, 1963-2002 World Energy Outlook 2004

  7. Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

  8. Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

  9. A growing gap

  10. AIE: Decline rates range from 5% to 11% per year.By 2030, most oil production worldwide will come from capacity that is yet to be built World Energy Outlook 2004

  11. Depletion: world gas-production capacity additions 7.3 trillion cubic metres of new gas-production capacity will be needed over the next three decades (around 260 bcm a year). Less than a third of this new capacity will go to meet rising demand. IEA, WEO 2004

  12. 2000-2030: 3x1012 US $ (E & P 70%)105.000 x 106 per year / 287,7 x 106 per day World Energy Outlook 2004

  13. Cumulative investment in natural gas, 2003-2030 Cumulative investment needs for gas-supply infrastructure to 2030 will amount to $2.7 trillion, or about $100 billion per year from now to 2030. More than half will be for exploration and development of gas fields. IEA, WEO 2004

  14. Major net inter-regional oil trade flows (mb/d) WEO 2004

  15. “Choke points” WEO 2004

  16. Geopolitical uncertainties

  17. Higher prices = more discoveries? Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

  18. Reserves: IOC’s vs NOC’s

  19. Chinese and Indian NOC’s

  20. The submerged part of the iceberg “peak oil and gas”

  21. Pessimists (“Hubbertites”) ASPO 2004

  22. Optimists (“Cornucopias”)

  23. USGS (95%, 50% and 5%) vs the rest Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery USGS 5% 2000 USGS Mean 2000 USGS 95% 2000 Campbell 1995 Masters 1994 Campbell 1992 Bookout 1989 Masters 1987 Martin 1984 Nehring 1982 Halbouty 1981 Meyerhoff 1979 Nehring 1978 Nelson 1977 Folinsbee 1976 Adams & Kirby 1975 Linden 1973 Moody 1972 Moody 1970 Shell 1968 Weeks 1959 MacNaughton 1953 Weeks 1948 Pratt 1942 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Trillions of Barrels Source: USGS and Colin Campbell EIA 2004

  24. SCIENCE, 18 NOVEMBER 2005, VOL 310

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