potential climate change impacts to the nw hydroelectric system n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System

Loading in 2 Seconds...

  share
play fullscreen
1 / 20
rowa

Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

131 Views
Download Presentation
Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System
An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

  1. Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association ConferenceFebruary 20, 2013

  2. Outline • Global Circulation Model Output • Assessing impacts to the hydroelectric system • Mitigation Actions?

  3. Global Climate Models • Climate Impacts Group – University of Washington • Up to 20 climate models • At least 2 GHG scenarios • Downscaled for the NW • Two key outputs for our analysis: • Temperature changes • Altered natural river flows Can also model climate studies from other groups if data is available

  4. River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC) • Two key functions: • Vet natural flow and temperature data • Provide additional data required to run hydro studies • Flood control elevations • Hydro operating rule curves

  5. Precipitation Changes (~2030) No significant overall change Source: Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part I - Future Climate and Hydrology Datasets

  6. Temperature Changes (~2030) Expected higher temperatures Source: Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part I - Future Climate and Hydrology Datasets

  7. Temp and Precipitation Changes Precipitation can be higher or lower Temperature is always higher Source: Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part I - Future Climate and Hydrology Datasets

  8. Change in Natural Flows @ The Dalles (~2030) Source: Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part I - Future Climate and Hydrology Datasets

  9. CIG Forecast Changes • Runoff volume and river flow • Volume not likely to change significantly • Higher winter flows, lower summer flows • Temperature • More likely to increase than decrease • Median case 2.05 degrees 0F higher by 2030

  10. Outline • Global Circulation Model Output • Assessing impacts to the hydroelectric system • Dealing with climate uncertainty

  11. Temperature Effects on Demand ~2030(For illustration only)

  12. Changes to Regulated Outflow ~2030(For illustration only)

  13. Changes to Power Generation ~2030(For illustration only)

  14. Impacts to Power Generation ~2030(For illustration only)

  15. Outline • Global Circulation Model Output • Assessing impacts to the hydroelectric system • Mitigation Actions?

  16. Typical Reservoir Operations

  17. Potential Mitigating Actions(My opinion only – not endorsed by the Council) • Release more water in summer • Coordinate with Canada for additional summer releases • Refill in winter with anticipated additional rainfall • Develop better forecasting methods for fall and winter flows – the beauty of this approach is that hydro operations will be better regardless of whether we see future warming or cooling

  18. Potential Mitigating Operations

  19. Other Issues to Consider • Climate change adjusted streamflows come from one source only • Issue of frequency of extreme events is not well quantified • Current analysis assumes equal likelihood for all streamflows • Should apply weights based on longer records • Apply different weights for climate studies