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Population Out-migration and Upstate Economic Performance

Population Out-migration and Upstate Economic Performance. Prepared for: New York State Network for Economic Research March 30, 2005 conference by Richard Deitz Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Buffalo Branch richard.deitz@ny.frb.org

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Population Out-migration and Upstate Economic Performance

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  1. Population Out-migration and Upstate Economic Performance Prepared for: New York State Network for Economic Research March 30, 2005 conference by Richard Deitz Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Buffalo Branch richard.deitz@ny.frb.org The Regional Economy of Upstate New York Newsletter is available online at: www.newyorkfed.org/research/regional_economy/upstatenews.html

  2. Overview • Upstate’s performance surrounding the latest business cycle • a longer and deeper recession than the nation • The region’s persistent lagging growth is primarily structural • can be viewed through the lens of long-term population out-migration

  3. Average Job Loss in Postwar RecessionsLocal area Peak through Trough Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  4. Job Loss in the Last RecessionLocal area Peak through Local Trough -7.3% Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  5. Employment Has Not Yet Recovered Local Area Peak to Present - 7.3% - 5.4% - 2.8% - 2.1% -2.0 % 0.6% 0% Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  6. Extended Job Losses & Sluggish GainsRecession and Recovery Timing - 7.3 - 5.5 0.1 - 4.4 1.6 1.2 - 3.2 1.1 - 3.1 - 1.4 2.1 - 2.1 2.1 1/2001 1/2002 1/2003 1/2004 1/2005 Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  7. Industry Gainers and LosersAggregate of Upstate Metro Areas, Peak to present Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Leisure and Hospitality Professional & Business Services Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Manufacturing Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  8. Long-term Population Out-migration

  9. Population Trends Index: 1990 = 100 US Upstate Source: US Census Bureau

  10. The Population is Migratingpopulation growth, 1970-2000 Percent Change Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  11. Population Change: 1970-2003 Buffalo Utica Elmira Jamestown Binghamton Syracuse Rochester Albany Glens Falls US Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  12. People Follow Jobs &Jobs Follow People • Jobs have migrated south and west • manufacturing has shifted to low cost and non-unionized areas, services have followed • People have moved to high amenity areas • warmer weather to the south and west • cultural attractions in large metro areas • Once begun, people follow jobs and jobs follow people • likely to perpetuate and build momentum

  13. Population Change &Out-Migration

  14. Net Domestic Migration Net International Migration Estimating Out-migration Population Growth = (Births – Deaths) + (In-movers – Out-movers) Net Migration Natural Increase

  15. -9.2% +2.7% Estimating Out-migration Population Growth = (Births – Deaths) + (In-movers – Out-movers) +1.8% +8.3% Net Migration 1980-2002 Net Domestic Migration* Net International Migration* -6.5% * estimated; assumes upstate NY emigration is negligible

  16. Population Change: 1980-2002 Glens Falls Albany Rochester Syracuse Jamestown Binghamton Buffalo U.S. Population Growth: 27% Utica Elmira Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  17. Net Migration: 1980-2002 Glens Falls Albany Rochester Syracuse Net migration Population growth Jamestown Binghamton Buffalo Utica Elmira Source: U.S. Census Bureau Note: Net migration is population growth minus (births-deaths)

  18. Out-Migration is More Severe Among the Youngpopulation growth, 1980-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  19. … Leading to A Disparate Age Distribution Percent of Population, Age 65+ Percent of Population, Age 20-34 U.S Upstate Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  20. All Upstate Metros Older than Typical(Percent of Population 65 and over) Source: US Bureau of the Census

  21. Conclusions • The last recession was somewhat longer and deeper for upstate NY • Long-term out-migration is contributing to the region’s slow economic growth • Out-migration is also aging the region’s population faster than average • Out-migration trends and impacts needs to be considered as part of economic policy decisions

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