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Enhancing River Forecast Accuracy Through Hydrometeorological Analysis

This service supports hydrologists in predicting excessive rainfall by analyzing weather models, NWS guidance, and personal experience. It improves basin-average precipitation forecasts and estimates through radar and gauge quality control, ensuring more accurate river forecasts. A duty review assesses the support provided during heavy rainfall events to enhance forecast confidence. The goal is to optimize the Excessive Rainfall Prediction Unit's effectiveness.

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Enhancing River Forecast Accuracy Through Hydrometeorological Analysis

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  1. HAS Duties (Hydrometeorological Analysis and Support) Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service WFO St. Louis, MO (636) 447-1876 mark.fuchs@noaa.gov U 5.00: Excessive Rainfall Prediction Unit

  2. Based on analysis of:  Computer weather models  NWS forecast office guidance  Anticipation of known factors  Personal experience Forecasted Basin-Average Precipitation  Issue 24-hours of future precip (FP)  During Tropical Cyclones: 48-hrs FP Hurricane Ernesto September 1, 2006  FP is averaged across each river basin (one value per basin) Basin-averaged FP sent to river models U 5.31: Forecasted Basin-Average Precipitation

  3. Estimating Precipitation Estimates Biased 2-3xTruth More-accurate River Forecasts South Florida South Florida Before Quality Control After Quality Control U 5.32: QPE and Quality Control

  4. Basin-Averaged Precipitation (Gauge) 4” 3” 3”    4” 2”  1.95”  1”  1” 0.5”   1” 0”   Rainfall Measurements Taken At Points Near And In Basin Gauge Values Averaged Over Entire Basin U 5.33: Basin Averaged Precipitation (Gauge)

  5. Basin Averaged Precipitation (Radar) 3” 2” 2” 1” 3” 2” 2” 1” 3” 2” 1.25” 1” 1” 1” 2” 1” 0” 1” 1” 1” 0” 0” 0” 1” 0” 0” Radar-based Rainfall Estimates Occur Over Evenly-Spaced Cells Radar Estimates From Each Cell Averaged Over Entire Basin U 5.34: Basin-Averaged Precipitation (Radar)

  6. 4.0” 4.5” 6.2” Radar vs. Gauge No Gauges Available U 5.35a: Radar vs. Gauge

  7. Radar vs. Gauge Basin-Averaged Rainfall (Radar) Basin-Averaged Rainfall (Gauge) 1.5” Difference Radar Average Resulted In Better River Forecasts Poor Gauge Locations Resulted In Overestimate U 5.35b: Radar vs. Gauge

  8. Duty Review Forecast24-hrs of precipitation in non-tropical events (48-hrs of precipitation in tropical events) Correct precipitation estimates from radar and gauges Evaluate basin-average radar and gauge estimates Send basin-averaged forecast and estimates to river model  Continually advise hydrologists on precipitation patterns Quality of Precipitation Forecasts and Estimates River Forecast Accuracy U 5.36: Duty Review

  9. Goal Review Hydrometeorologist Duties ? does the hydrometeorologist support the hydrologist during heavy rainfall events? How  Forecast basin- average rainfall Answer  Quality control radar, gauge, and basin-averaged rainfall estimates  Advise hydrologist on forecast and estimate confidence U 5biii: Goal Review

  10. Excessive Rainfall Prediction Unit Concluded U 5c: Concluded

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