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Russia in the East Asian Context

Explore the geopolitical relationships and power dynamics between Russia, China, Japan, and the USA in the East Asian context. Analyze the factors driving competition and cooperation, and examine historical events and modern challenges shaping their interactions.

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Russia in the East Asian Context

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  1. Russia in the East Asian Context

  2. 4 of the world’s 10 most populous countries • China: 1,286 bln. (No.1) • USA: 290 mln. (No.3) • Russia: 145 mln. (No.7) • Japan: 127 mln. (No.10)

  3. GDP, PPP, US$: • USA – 10.5 trln. • China – 6 trln. • Japan – 3.6 trln. • Russia – 1.4 trln.

  4. Data for 2001

  5. Four Great Powers • 2 maritime – Japan, US • 2 continental – China, Russia • Maritime as challengers • Continental as status-quo • 20th century - 2 communist, 2 capitalist • 3 of the 4 (Japan, Russia, China) underwent repeated rapid modernizations in the past 150 years • Japan fought the 3 others, ultimately lost • Russia-China-US: have been both competitors and allies • The 2 withdrawals of Russia’s power • Economics and security • The legacy of wars: • The absence of a peace treaty between Russia and Japan • The unresolved Korean problems • The problem of Taiwan

  6. CHINA • The former (and future?) regional superpower • The long decline of China • Imperialist expansion in East Asia • Russia • Britain • US • Germany • Japan

  7. The 20th century: • Clashes of empires: Russia-Japan, Japan-US, Japan-Britain • The 2 communist revolutions: • Russia, 1917 • China, 1949 • China’s revival: • Revolution • Independence • Modernization • Balance of power strategies • Potential regional hegemony, based primarily on economic power

  8. RUSSIA • The easy expansion to the Pacific (17th-20th centuries) • Trade over security • Taking advantage of China’s decline • The fatal clash with Japan, 1904-1905 • The communist transformation (modernization, security, ideology, geopolitics) • Alliance with China (since the 1920s) • Support of Chinese Communists • WW2: Alliance with the US and China against Japan • Cold War: Alliance with China against US and Japan • 1950s: the apex of Russia’s influence in the region • 1960s-1970s: conflict with China, detente with the US • Late 1970s-1980s: US and China contain Russia • Late 1980s-2000s: Russia turns inward, exits geopolitical competition, improves relations with US, China, Japan, undergoes transition crisis

  9. What explains the ebb and flow of Russia’s power?

  10. JAPAN • The Meiji Revolution • Emergence from isolation • Modernization • The 1905 victory and the rise of imperialism • The 1945 defeat and post-imperial modernization • The Cold War alliance with the US • Economic competition with the US • Geopolitical uncertainties • Interests in China and Russia • Security concerns

  11. USA • Manifest Destiny and Open Door: Pacific expansion, economic and military tools • Collusion and collision with Japan • The alliance with Russia against Japan • The apex of American power: 1945 • The Communist challenge • The defeat in Vietnam • The US-China alignment against Russia • The Japanese economic challenge • The end of the Cold War: new US hegemony, East Asian counterbalances • The Chinese challenge to US

  12. 6 bilateral relationships: patterns and trends • Russia-China • USA-Japan • Russia-USA • Russia-Japan • USA-China • China-Japan • Assess each relationship in each of the 3 areas on a scale from +5 (highly cooperative) to -5 (highly competitive)

  13. For each country, it is important: • Not to allow a hostile combination of the others • To maintain good relations with the 3 others • Competition vs. cooperation • Sources of competition • Factors for cooperation

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