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The Proliferation of Birth Cohort Studies in the developed and developing world

The Proliferation of Birth Cohort Studies in the developed and developing world. Professor Heather Joshi Director Centre for Longitudinal Studies Institute of Education Workshop on Lifecourse, Wellbeing and public policy in Developing countries Norwich November 9-10th 2006.

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The Proliferation of Birth Cohort Studies in the developed and developing world

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  1. The Proliferation of Birth Cohort Studies in the developed and developing world Professor Heather Joshi Director Centre for Longitudinal Studies Institute of Education Workshop on Lifecourse, Wellbeing and public policy in Developing countries Norwich November 9-10th 2006

  2. Structure of presentation • The scientific and policy relevance of birth cohort studies • Introduction to the British Birth Cohort studies • Some findings from long-term follow-up in the GB studies, 1958 and 1970 cohorts • International proliferation 5. Young Lives

  3. 1. Why cohort studies are important Continuing birth cohort studies are expensive compared to cross-sectional surveys, but they are important because: • They tell the stories of the lives of the members in a way that is ‘joined up’ across different aspects of their lives at any one time and from the past into the future • They record how long someone occupies a given state • They link these stories into the family and social context of growing up and growing old. • They link events, characteristics, health and achievements across across generations • They enable investigation of cause & effects • They document convergence and polarisation between individuals over time.

  4. Research questions best addressed by cohort data • Long term outcomes of experiences and decisions in early life • Medium and short-term outcomes & links between different life domains (e.g. health and employment) • Descriptions of individual trajectories – careers, relationships, fertility, poverty and disadvantage • The links between social change and the changing experiences of different cohorts • Intergenerational transmission of advantage and disadvantage and the processes involved

  5. 2. British Birth Cohort Studies • Fully representative samples of the British population • Based on one week’s births - approximately 17,000 babies • Followed up from birth into adulthood • Four British Birth Cohort Studies • 1946 : National Survey of Health and Development (MRC funded) • 1958 : National Child Development Study • 1970 : British Cohort Study 1970 • 2000/1: UK Millennium Cohort Study Housed at CLS

  6. NCDS follow-ups and sources of information

  7. BCS70 Follow-ups & information sources

  8. MCS: existing and planned follow-ups

  9. Design Features of MCS • Cohort born over 12 month period • Season of birth effects • Spread workload of professional interviewers • Sampling necessitated • Geographically clustered by electoral ward • Wards being disproportionately stratified • Better approach to issue of community & local services • Content multi-purpose & multidisciplinary but with greater emphasis on social rather than medical

  10. 50 46 42 38 34 33 30 26 23 16 16 11 10 7 5 3.Long-term follow-up of 1958 and 1970 births Cohort Comparisons Life cycle effects

  11. Some key findings • Mothers who smoke during pregnancy are more likely to have children with low birth weight and, by age 16, reduced height and lower reading and mathematics attainment. • Breast feeding is associated with reduced risk of heart disease in adult life. • A key predictor of children's educational achievement is interest shown by parents. • Chronic lower respiratory tract illness in adults is associated with poor home circumstances earlier in life.

  12. Policy Relevance of the Cohort Studies NCDS and BCS70 have been applied to: • The health impact of smoking in pregnancy • Child Poverty • Declining intergenerational mobility • Antecedents and consequences of disability • Health continuities over the lifecourse • Health inequalities • Determinants of crime and anti-social behaviour • Social and economic returns to education and training • Access and barriers to higher education • Improving adult basic skills • Women’s opportunities in employment • Maternal employment and child outcomes MCS has been used in: • National Evaluation of Sure Start • National Evaluation of Children’s Fund

  13. Doomed to Failure? • Resilience is: • Positive adjustment despite the experience of adversity • Continued positive or effective functioning in adverse circumstances • Recovery after a significant trauma • Beating the odds • SCHOON, I. (2006) Risk and Resilience: Adaptations in Changing Times. • Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

  14. Identification of Resilience (example from NCDS) Socio-economic Adversity Low (none) High (4+) Outcome (Reading at 7) Positive (above average) Negative ( below average) n = 2044 n = 2341

  15. Educational Attainment: Mid childhood to adolescence Vulnerable Resilient Unexpected Multiple Advantage (Schoon, 2006)

  16. Well-Being in adulthood (Schoon, 2006) BCS70 aged 30 NCDS aged 33 Vulnerable Resilient Unexpected low Multiple Advantage

  17. What can we learn? • Complex multi-factorial processes of protection and disadvantage • An interplay of resources, risks and competences (“planfullness”) • Never too early to intervene • Never too late • The historic, geographical and social context also matters.

  18. Unique qualities of the Birth Cohort Studies • Detailed prospective longitudinal data from early life including: • Health • Family background • Childhood circumstances • Assessments of ability • Life history data on work, fertility, relationships, housing collected throughout adult life • Information on cohort members’ children allowing examination of intergenerational transmission • Very large sample progressing through major transitions at the same time

  19. 5. Child Cohort Studies go global Showing starting dates • Longitudinal Study of Children and Young People in Canada .. Several cohorts Since 1994 • Danish National Birth Cohort: 1996 • Young Lives: India, Ethiopia,Vietnam and Peru, 2 cohorts: 2002 • Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, two cohorts: 2003 • Growing up in Scotland, 2 cohorts : 2004 • National Children’s Study USA from 2007 • National Longitudinal Study of Children in Ireland: 2007 • ELFE, Etude longitudinale française depuis l’enfance France 2008 • Jamaica Birth Cohort Studies 1986 Among others….

  20. Young Lives • 15 year project on child poverty • 4 countries • India – Andhra Pradesh • Vietnam • Ethiopia • Peru • Each country 20 sentinel sites • 2 cohorts 2000 age1 and 1000 age 8 in 2002

  21. Young lives • First survey in data archive • 2nd Survey in field 2006-7 • children aged 6 and 12 • Funding for further follow up being sought Funding from DfID Joint management by QEH Oxford, Save the Children, country research teams Advocacy, Qualitative Indepth case studies, child participation www.younglives.org,uk

  22. Sourcebooks of research findings

  23. www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Register online for email alerts about CLS news, events and publications.

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