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Is an epic pluvial masking NYC’s water security?

Is an epic pluvial masking NYC’s water security?. Andrew Bell. Ed Cook. Kevin Vranes. Tiwanaku Empire. Akkadian Empire. NYC. Data: NYC Dept. Env. Protection. NYC. Data: NYC Dept. Env. Protection. NYC. Ave May-Aug. Data: NCDC. 12 species eastern hemlock chestnut oak pitch pine

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Is an epic pluvial masking NYC’s water security?

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  1. Is an epic pluvial masking NYC’s water security? Andrew Bell Ed Cook Kevin Vranes

  2. Tiwanaku Empire Akkadian Empire

  3. NYC Data: NYC Dept. Env. Protection

  4. NYC Data: NYC Dept. Env. Protection

  5. NYC Ave May-Aug. Data: NCDC

  6. 12 species eastern hemlock chestnut oak pitch pine white oak eastern redcedar post oak pignut hickory sweet birch yellow-poplar shagbark hickory northern red oak black oak 32 chronologies

  7. David Meko Time-varying Reconstructions

  8. r2 = 66.2% May-Aug - Better at estimating wet years

  9. inst. data tacked onto end

  10. January NCEP Sea-level Pressure: 1948-2009

  11. 1568-1573 Drought: NADA v2

  12. Southern Appalachian Drought History NADA v2

  13. Mississippi Valley Drought History NADA v2

  14. Northeast US = extreme drought Northeast Climate Center

  15. Summary: • increased chronology replication helps, especially spatially • species replication helps as well - as much as chronology replication?

  16. Summary: • increased chronology replication helps, especially spatially • species replication helps as well - as much as chronology replication? • 500 yrs of NYC watershed drought history? • - NYC will be in a heap of trouble when a real/paleo drought hits!

  17. 1663-1666 Drought: NADA v2

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