Supporting the learning curve of fuel cell technologies for automotive applications

1. Supporting the learning curve of fuel cell technologies for automotive applications Philippe Larrue, Technopolis Group France DIME International Conference Innovation, sustainability and policy 11-13 September 2008 GREThA, University Montesquieu Bordeaux IV, France

2. Objectives of the research • Propose relevant policy mechanisms to support fuel cell technology research and commercialisation • Propose a governance structure that ensure the coherence of the whole policy support structure

3. Context and concepts • Context • Slow down of the fuel cell technology progresses, decreasing returns in research • Debate regarding the policy priorities : support demonstrators & experimentation or research? • The « integrated » Deployment strategy of the European HFP platform • “niche - hopping” is not fostering the broad penetration of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies. (…) The niche market applications may however constitute a strong enabler of technology consolidation, infrastructure build up, cost reduction, and public acceptance  • Concepts • Evolutionary economics : breakthrough vs. incremental innovation • Strategic niche management (Kemp et al.)

4. The research hypothesis • The « breakthrough strategy » consists in • giving priority given to long- and mid-term research • targeting automotive applications (mass market but major challenges) • The « incremental strategy » consists in • supporting early applications for less demanding (stationary) applications • progressively unfolding the learning curve toward more challenging applications • benefiting from feedback-loops between research and demonstration for one type of application (small vehicles/hybrid/passenger car) and between different types of applications (stationary/automotive) • The « breakthrough strategy » • has shown its limit • might be a strategy from automakers to demonstrate good will without major commitments, with max public support

5. Basic research on new generation of fuel cells • (PEMFC HT, SOFC) P Passenger car fuel cell vehicles Step 2 Assessment of potential synergies between groups of applications Stationary fuel cells Generation 3 Automotive fuel cell Generation 3 Automotive fuel cell Generation 2 Stationary fuel cells Generation 2 Stationary fuel cells Generation 1 Automotive fuel cell Generation 1 T The fuel cell learning curve Step 1 Identification of group of applications Step 3 Timetable of applications

6. Step 1 : identification of group of applications • Based on power range and basic « goal performance parameters » (durability, cost, temperature,…)

7. Terms of reference Technical design Resulting synergies Deployment of fuel cells Decrease in price (Eco of scale and scope) Similar EMA (cell) Common industry base Improvement of the technology (knowledge spillovers, crit. mass) Common knowledge base Similar use patterns Increase in technology acceptance (market preparation, awareness) Common accessories (air or water pumps,..) Common insfrastruc. Same user base Same fuel Step 2 : Assessment of potential synergies between fuel cells technologies for different applications

8. Step 2 : Assessment of potential synergies between fuel cells technologies for different applications • Systematic assessement of synergies between fuel cell technology for different applications(expert, interviews) • 3 synergy parameters : use patterns, knowledge base, market

9. Step 2 : Assessment of potential synergies between fuel cells technologies for different applications • Synergies • Portable/stationary • Stationary/small FC auto • Small FC auto/large FC auto

10. Step 3 : the timetable of technology generation • Basic research on new generation of fuel cells • (PEMFC HT, SOFC) P Passenger car Stationary FC for residential use Hybrid FC véhicles, fleet FC vehicles Stationary FC for high added value applications (UPS, telecoms, …) Small auto FC (mild hybrid, range extender, APU…) Small stationary FC (tools, back up,…) Small auto FC (disabled, gold cart,…) FC for portable devices T

11. Function # 7 : strategic steering, overall coordination Function # 1: support to and coord. of basic research Function # 4: goal performance setting and stadardisation Function # 5: standardisation of modules Function # 2 : science industry coordination Function # 6: early market support Function # 3 : de demonstration of early generation of fuel cells A functional analysis of policy support to the unfolding of the learning curves • Basic research on new generation of fuel cells • (PEMFC HT, SOFC) Passenger car Stationary FC for residential use Hybrid FC véhicles, fleet FC vehicles Stationary FC for high added value applications (UPS, telecoms, …) Small auto FC (mild hybrid, range extender, APU…) Small stationary FC (tools, back up,…) Small auto FC (disabled, gold cart,…) FC for portable devices T

12. 7 functions for policy support to the unfolding of the fuel cell learning curve • Function # 1: support to and coordination of basic research • Ex: Canadian CNRC fuel cell programme • Ex : DOE programme • Function # 2 : science industry coordination • Ex: FreedomCar and Fuel Initiative • Ex: PACo network / PanH-ANR programme • Function # 3 : demonstration of early generation of fuel cells • California fuel cell partnership • H2 highways, airport, village…

13. 7 functions for policy support to the unfolding of the fuel cell learning curve • Function # 4: goal performance setting and standardisation • US DOE programme • Japanese FFCJ roadmaps • Function # 5: standardisation of modules • SECA Programme (multi-application FC module) • Function # 6: early market support • Canadian H2 Early Adopters program • Function # 7: strategic steering • Japanese FFCJ, European HFP platform

14. Thank you for your attention philippe.larrue@technopolis-group.com