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Introductions Scott Budman NBC 11 Technology & Business Reporter Welcome Raghav Lal Senior Vice President, Small Business, Visa USA Then and Now: Comprehending the New Economy Guy Kawasaki Managing Director, Garage Technology Ventures The Role of Small Business Nigel Ives

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Presentation Transcript
introductions

Introductions

Scott Budman

NBC 11 Technology & Business Reporter

welcome

Welcome

Raghav Lal

Senior Vice President, Small Business, Visa USA

then and now comprehending the new economy

Then and Now: Comprehending the New Economy

Guy Kawasaki

Managing Director, Garage Technology Ventures

the role of small business

The Role of Small Business

Nigel Ives

Vice President, Western Region, NFIB

california small business conditions

California Small Business Conditions

Bill Dunkelberg, Chief Economist, NFIB

outlook for general business conditions in 6 months for the us pct better pct worse
Outlook For General Business ConditionsIn 6 Months for the US (PCT “Better” - PCT “Worse”)
california policy climate review and outlook

California Policy Climate: Review and Outlook

Lawrence McQuillan, Director, Business and Economic Studies,

Pacific Research Institute

u s economic freedom index18
U.S. Economic Freedom Index

41 to 50 (10)

31 to 40 (10)

21 to 30 (10)

11 to 20 (10)

1 to 10 (10)

cost of doing business in ca 30 above western state average
Cost Of Doing Business In CA 30% Above Western State Average

Relative cost of doing business

1.5

1.30

.16

.06

.03

.05

<.01

1.00

1.0

19%Higher

127%Higher

77%Higher

105% Higher

25%Higher

0.5

0.0

Averageof Western

States

Taxes

Electricity

Propertycosts

State

Regulatory

Employeecosts

California

Source: CB Richard Ellis, Energy Information Administration, Milken Institute, Beacon Hill

ca state regulatory costs are more than double those of the average western state
CA State Regulatory Costs Are More Than Double Those Of The Average Western State …

Regulatory Cost Index (100=US Avg.)

Bain Regulatory Cost Index (US=100)

Very high (>150)

200

High (120-150)

Moderate (100-119)

Low(85-99)

150

Very Low (<85)

US Average = 100

100

Western State Average = 83

50

0

CA

TX

WA

NV

OR

AZ

UT

Western states calculation includes: AZ, CO, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA

Source: US Census, Harris Interactive, EPA, US Dept. of Labor; Small Business Survival Index, OR Dept of Consumer and Business Services; Bain analysis

cost of doing business in ca 30 above western state average21

WA

WA

MT

MT

ME

ME

ND

ND

MN

MN

VT

VT

OR

OR

ID

ID

NH

NH

NY

NY

WI

WI

MI

MI

SD

SD

MA

MA

CT

CT

WY

WY

RI

RI

IA

IA

PA

PA

NE

NE

NJ

NJ

NV

NV

OH

OH

UT

UT

DE

DE

IL

IL

IN

IN

CA

CA

WV

WV

CO

CO

MD

MD

KS

KS

VA

VA

MO

MO

KY

KY

NC

NC

TN

TN

AZ

AZ

OK

OK

NM

NM

AR

AR

SC

SC

GA

GA

AL

AL

MS

MS

TX

TX

AK

AK

LA

LA

FL

FL

HI

HI

Cost of doing business in CA 30% above Western state average

Regulatory Cost Index (100=US Avg.)

Very high (>150)

High (120-150)

Moderate (100-119)

Low(85-99)

Very Low (<85)

Source: US Census, Harris Interactive, EPA, US Dept. of Labor; Small Business Survival Index, OR Dept of Consumer and Business Services; Bain analysis

small business suffers most from regulation
Federal regulatory costs per employee for small businesses are $7,647.

45% higher costs for small firms than for large firms.

Differential drivers:

Tax Compliance

67% higher

Environmental Regs

364% higher

Source: “The Impact of Regulatory Costs on Small Firms” by W. Mark Crain, 2005

Small business suffers most from regulation
super sized verdicts in california
Super-Sized Verdicts In California

100 Largest Verdicts in U.S. (2001 and 2002)

$11.3B

$38.1B

100%

Other

Western States

80

Non-Western

60

States

40

20

CA

0

2001

2002

# of CA

verdicts:

16

14

Source: National Law Journal’s 100 largest verdicts (2001, 2002)

live free or move
Live Free or Move
  • In every year from 1993-2002, more jobs and firms left California than entered.

Source: “Are Businesses Fleeing the State?” by David Neumark, Junfu Zhang, and Brandon Wall, 2005

structural solutions for california
Organize

Reform . . .

Exempt small business from more federal and state regs

Enact simple flat tax at federal & state levels

Enact state constitutional tax and spending limit

Abolish punitive damages in civil cases

Enact “loser pays” rule

Establish special medical courts

Structural Solutions for California
consumer spending national western u s

Consumer Spending: National & Western U.S.

Commercial Consumption Expenditures™: Small Business Outlook

Wayne Best, Senior Vice President, Business & Economic Analysis, Visa USA

slide27

West

Growth In Consumer Spending Continues

16%

13%

Visa System

10%

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

2005

ISF010 |27

slide28

West-T&E

System-T&E

West-Retail

System-Retail

Strong Consumer Spending In The West

19%

14%

9%

2005

ISF010 |28

slide29

System-Discount / Mass / Drug Stores

West-Discount / Mass / Drug Stores

West-

Dept Stores

System-Dept Stores

Consumers Return To Department Stores,

But Discount Stores Still Lead In Growth

17%

8%

1%

2005

ISF010 |29

slide30

West-Home & Garden Supplies

System-Home & Garden Supplies

Retail Growth In The West Driven By Increased Home Values

37%

14%

West-Home Furnishings

System-Home Furnishings

9%

2005

ISF010 |30

commercial consumption expenditures
Commercial Consumption Expenditures™
  • Commercial Consumption Expenditures™ (CCE) measures the annual dollar value of purchases made from one business to another, and the purchases governments make from businesses.
  • CCE combines different publicly available data series to capture both intermediate purchase transactions and capital expenditures made to produce a final good or service.

ISF010 |31

benchmarking payment company penetration and opportunities

$8.6 Trillion (e)

$16.2 Trillion (f)

Payment Company Share of CCE 2.3%

General PurposeCard Share of PCE

25%

2005

2005

Benchmarking Payment Company Penetration And Opportunities

ISF010 |32

General Purpose card share includes Visa, MasterCard, American Express total products purchase volume (excludes online debit)

Source: Visa Quarterly Statistical Highlights and Visa estimates

slide33

Forecast

Commercial Consumption Expenditures™

$ Trillions

$17.3

$16.8

18

$16.2

$15.2

$14.0

12

6

$5.1

$4.9

$4.7

$4.4

$4.1

0

‘03

‘04

‘05

‘06

‘07

6.1%

3.0%

4.8%

Total

9.1%

3.8%

Yr/Yr

5.4%

4.4%

4.5%

Small Business

7.4%

4.3%

Growth

ISF010 |33

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, Global Insight, Visa Business and Economic Analysis

small business segment share of spending

Industry Share of Small Business Segment Spending

Agriculture 2.9%

Transportation 2.4%

Accommodation

& Food Services 4.0%

Health Care

Retail20.3%

5.7%

Professional Services

6.6%

8.9%

Construction

Manufacturing13.0%

Real Estate

9.1%

WholesaleTrade14.2%

Other 12.9%

2005(e) CCE $4.7 Trillion

Small Business Segment Share Of Spending

Spending byMarket Segment

Small Business29%

Mid/Large61%

Public10%

2005(e) CCE $16.2 Trillion

ISF010 |34

Source: Global Insight, Visa Business and Economic Analysis