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2012 Wildfire Season Outlook

2012 Wildfire Season Outlook. “Recent” Wildfire History. Winter 2001-2002 – VERY DRY followed by the Summer 2002 – Colorado Hayman Fire Coal Seam Fire Missionary Ridge Fire Big Fish Numerous other fires. 2001-02 Versus 2011-12 SNOTEL Annual Precip . % as of 5-10-12. 01-02 11-12

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2012 Wildfire Season Outlook

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  1. 2012 Wildfire Season Outlook

  2. “Recent” Wildfire History Winter 2001-2002 – VERY DRY followed by the Summer 2002 – Colorado Hayman Fire Coal Seam Fire Missionary Ridge Fire Big Fish Numerous other fires

  3. 2001-02Versus 2011-12SNOTEL Annual Precip. %as of 5-10-12 01-0211-12 Yampa & White River Basin: 67 % 69 % Upper Colorado River Basin: 61 % 66 % Gunnison River Basin: 60 % 73% Dolores/San Miguel R. Basin: 53 % 81 % Missionary Ridge – Summer 2002

  4. Gunnison River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

  5. Upper Colorado River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

  6. Yampa-White River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

  7. San Miguel River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

  8. Dolores River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

  9. San Juan River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

  10. SNOTEL Current S.W.E.

  11. Precipitation % of Normal10/1/11 – 5/1/12 Based on all precipitation reporting sites

  12. Soil Moisture % of Normal10/1/11 – 5/6/12

  13. Historical ENSO Influence ? Winter 2001-2002 - Neutral Winter 2011-2012 - La Nina 2nd consecutive La Nina winter

  14. Historical ENSO Influence ? Since 1900, there have been 11 back-to-back La Nina winters In western Colorado... 9 events - 2nd year drier than first 2 events - 2nd year wetter than first (early 1950s & mid 1970s) Dr. Klaus Wolter, NOAA Research Scientist

  15. Drought Assessment 5/8/12

  16. Drought Assessment – 5/8/12

  17. May 2012 Climate Outlook Precipitation Temperatures

  18. Early Summer 2012 Precipitation Temperatures

  19. Late Summer-Early Fall 2012Monsoon Season Precipitation Temperatures

  20. Winter 2012-2013 ??? “…equal chances of Neutral or [weak] El Niño conditions…“ Climate Prediction Center 5-3-12

  21. NWS Grand JunctionGeared Up for Active Fire WX Season wx.gov/gjt

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