2012 / 13 Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook. Neville Koop, Meteorology and Climate Advisor, SPREP . SST Anomaly September. Neutral. El Nino. La Nina. SPCZ and ITCZ.
Neville Koop, Meteorology and Climate Advisor, SPREP
Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook: Near average or slightly above average numbers for many islands likely, and increased activity in the late season near Tonga and Niue.
The forecast of normal or above normal activity for islands like New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga indicates 2 or 3 tropical cyclones interacting with each of those countries during the season can be expected.
Seven analog tropical cyclone seasons (1978/79; 1979/80; 1980/81; 1990/91; 1996/97; 2001/02; 2003/04) have been identified.
Note that the small number of analog seasons relates to the brevity of the high-quality TC data set (only 42 years) and the limited number of similar analogs to this season.