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The Implications of a Pandemic Flu Outbreak On Businesses in the Global Economy Gayle Jacobs Global PRC Associates, LLC. Overview. A Flu Pandemic as a Political Risk Effects of a Pandemic on the Global Economy Impacts on Companies in West Michigan What Are Other Businesses Doing?

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slide1
The Implications

of a Pandemic Flu Outbreak

On Businesses

in the Global Economy

Gayle Jacobs

Global PRC Associates, LLC

overview
Overview
  • A Flu Pandemic as a Political Risk
  • Effects of a Pandemic on the Global Economy
  • Impacts on Companies in West Michigan
  • What Are Other Businesses Doing?
    • Case Study: The Intel Corporation
  • Looking Ahead: The Next Steps
a flu pandemic and political risk
A Flu Pandemic and Political Risk
  • Background on Political Risk
  • Businesses face risk on political, economic and sociological levels
    • Present clashes in Lebanon disrupting UPS shipments
    • Terrorism and kidnapping on BP-Shell oil pipelines in Nigeria
    • SARS outbreak in 2003

A transnational health pandemic would have far greater

reach and impact on the global economy than any

one war, embargo or natural disaster.

effects on the global economy
Effects on the Global Economy

The flow of goods and services thrives with fluid

borders. It is greatly impacted by variables such

as market demand, logistics networks, the

international banking system, technology and at

the root of it all, people.

What does this mean for your business?

critical factors
Critical Factors

Workforce Shortages

of 30-40%

(Precautionary)

Border Restrictions

Affecting Critical Imports

Or Sales/Exports Overseas

Major Swings in Demand

(Ex: Medical Equipment

Sales, Consumer Goods)

Mfg Plants

Factories

Call Centers

Retail

Operations,

Stores

Logistics:

Trucking,

UPS, FedEx

Dramatic Changes to

Your Business Operations

the domino effect
The Domino Effect

A supply shortage

causes a disruption

to production

Related

goods

cannot be

produced

Ripple effect

is felt in other

industries, and

it compounds

Schools close and

parents can no

longer go to work

(at electric company,

factory, etc.)

Businesses

unable to

collect

revenues

to pay

their

obligations

Families lose ability

to earn income when

wage earners stay

home due to child

care, fear or illness

Consumers

cannot pay

bills for

utilities and

other goods

michigan s role in international trade 37 billion in 2005 exports
Michigan’s Role in International Trade:$37 billion in 2005 Exports

Michigan’s Top 15 Export Markets

World Total: $37,584,052

Partner Amount

Canada 22,633,157

Mexico 4,193,399

Japan 1,070,898

Germany 1,056,962

UK 715,931

China 697,860

Austria 591,512

France 478,730

South Korea 464,907

Belgium 442,777

Brazil 404,462

Saudi Arabia 396,193

Netherlands 385,685

Australia 369,631

Venezuela 357,334

(In Thousands of USD)

………

Source: The Office of Trade and Industry Information (OTII), Manufacturing and Services, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.

what other businesses are doing a case study intel corporation
What Other Businesses Are DoingA Case Study: Intel Corporation

Intel Corporation, the world leader in silicon

innovation, has nearly 100,000 employees in 199

countries. Their 2005 revenues were $38.8 Billion.

After the SARS outbreak in 2003 which cost the

lives of several of their colleagues in Asia, they aren’t

taking any chances with an Avian Flu Pandemic Threat.

a case study the intel corporation
A Case Study: The Intel Corporation
  • Design Responses Around Each Level of the 6-phase

Threat Scale

  • Organize Cross-Functional teams (Preparedness, Regional Response, Travel, Threat Assessment, Corporate Emergency Operations Center)
  • Start Hygiene Campaign For the Work Place Including Educational Materials and Hand Sanitizer Pumps
  • Establish Corporate Communication Lines (especially for expatriates) and a Medical Triage Contact Number
  • Create System to Track Cases of Illness and Severity
the who global influenza scale
The WHO Global Influenza Scale

Source: World Health Organization

a case study the intel corporation2
A Case Study: The Intel Corporation

Track and Manage Any Cases In a Case Management System

Reproduced with permission of the Intel Corporation, Occupational Health 2006

a case study the intel corporation3
A Case Study: The Intel Corporation

Point of Entry Temperature Screening

Reproduced with permission of the Intel Corporation, Occupational Health 2006

a case study the intel corporation4
A Case Study: The Intel Corporation

Above all, communicate with your work force as much as

possible.

  • Roles, Responsibilities and Goals for All Involved
  • Company Approach Toward Managing the Threat
  • Employee Instructions At Each Phase on the Threat Scale
  • Any Situational Updates
  • Trigger Points
  • Return Policy for Expatriates Overseas
  • How To Stay In Touch Once Homebound or Ill
  • Organizational Contact List
  • Guiding Principles Throughout All Phases (next slide)
a case study the intel corporation5
A Case Study: The Intel Corporation

Guiding Principles for Intel’s Pandemic Response:

  • We promote a healthy work environment
  • We treat people with dignity and respect through communication and transparency
  • We will minimize the spread of infection by partnering with local governments and public health organizations, such as WHO and CDC
  • We will implement a staggered deployment strategy based on risk and need at each location/geography
  • We will maintain business continuity by developing appropriate levels of coordination and contingency planning
looking ahead the next steps
Looking Ahead: The Next Steps

Utilize tools and resources from this summit

Establish a pandemic flu team

First goal: conduct an audit of implications for company

Challenge: report findings to top leadership within 2 weeks

Set measurable goals and constantly monitor progress, get buy-in from corporate level management to ensure involvement

Tier employees into layers most and least critical to operations; cross train Tier 2 and 3 staff

Hold leaders accountable for progress and compliance

Examine supplier and other external relationships and identify alternatives and back-ups

Identify where your business is most vulnerable and back up the weak points (e.g. “just in time” inventory)

looking ahead the next steps1
Looking Ahead: The Next Steps

You’ve heard the experts – the next pandemic is not a matter of ‘if’, but ‘when.’

You have a lot of work to do!

looking ahead the next steps2
Looking Ahead: The Next Steps

Consider The Following:

On the morning of September 11, 2001 approximately 19,000 employees were working

in World Trade Center Towers 1 & 2 and 58,000 people in the entire World Trade

Center complex. Following the plane impacts, Tower 1 stood for 103 minutes and Tower

2 stood for only 56 minutes.

During that brief time, nearly 17,000 employees evacuated safely. Casualties among

building occupants numbered 2,270 (not including the 403 first responder and 157 plane

passengers). Roughly 88% survived a mass exodus from two of

the tallest structures in the world.

The Explanation:

Consistent and regular fire drills resulted in an

instinctive and orderly evacuation despite conflicting

instructions and limited exit routes. WTC disaster

training saved thousands of lives that day and is one

of the untold success stories of that unforgettable day.

slide19
Thank You and Good Luck!

For additional copies of this presentation

Or the “Looking Ahead” checklist contact:

Gayle Jacobs

Gayle.Jacobs@globalprc.com

(703) 585-7647