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POLITICS IN MEXICO

POLITICS IN MEXICO

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POLITICS IN MEXICO

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  1. POLITICS IN MEXICO LUIS ESTRADA lmestrad@weber.ucsd.edu Spring quarter 2005

  2. Conference USMEX 25th Anniversary • Transition: Electorally driven • No ideology in dispute, just to throw the PRI out of government • Same politicians under different parties (same ruling elite) • Democracy still fragile, absence of majorities in the near future • Solution: MORE POLITICS

  3. Voting Behavior • Sociological theory: social environment • Psychological theory: party identification (emotional attachment) • Rational theory: retrospective evaluations of government performance • Electoral studies in Mexico: recent and increasingly methodologically sophisticated • Surveys also recent (‘good ones’ since 1997)

  4. Voting Behavior: Electoral Studies • Surveys: individual level data • Mostly focused on the determinants of vote choice • Parties’ constituencies are clearly differentiated • Ad-hoc studies, lack of data does nto give the chance to make long time-series

  5. Voting behavior • Education • Age • Income • Region • Participation • Party ID

  6. Voting Behavior (Domínguez & McCann 1996) • Two-step model: First, voters decide whether to support or not the PRI; if not, then they decide ‘ideologically’ between PAN or PRD • But, there is no ideology! • Those voters who do not support the PRI choose the party/candidate that can defeat the PRI with most certainty (Estrada 1999; 2005)

  7. Voting Behavior (Domínguez 1999) • Mexican democratic transition has been slowly, where the voter has been the most important protagonist (1988, 1997, 2000) • Diminishing risk aversion thanks to alternation at the municipal-state-federal levels

  8. Voting Behavior (Domínguez 2003) • Why the PRI lost/PAN won in 2000? If the opposition vote was divided; PRI most partisans; PRI strong support in the states; Zedillo’s approval was high • The 2000 campaign mattered, but only one issue was at discussion: “CHANGE”

  9. 1: Weak (unstable) political attachments

  10. 2: Less salient social cleavages (all anti-PRI)

  11. 3: No ideological cues • Individuals hold opinions on issues • These opinions, however, are not connected to an ideological debate • Parties have been so embedded in the issue of alternation that have left aside their ideological origins and differences-this will not change in the near future

  12. Voting Behavior: Perspectives • Candidate-centered campaigns: trivial debates (personality, not issues) • Polarized situation (Presidential regime: “winner takes all” raises the stakes) • No candidate is expected to win more than 40 percent (divided government)