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Demographic Impacts on Minnesota’s Work Force: the future in 15 minutes or less

Demographic Impacts on Minnesota’s Work Force: the future in 15 minutes or less. Kyle Uphoff Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager. Job Openings have Collapsed as Unemployment has Increased.

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Demographic Impacts on Minnesota’s Work Force: the future in 15 minutes or less

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  1. Demographic Impacts on Minnesota’s Work Force:the future in 15 minutes or less Kyle Uphoff Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager

  2. Job Openings have Collapsed as Unemployment has Increased

  3. The recent recession will restructure an already shifting economic structure: Industries losing jobs in MN since March 2007 • Total Employment: -140,000 in 2 years • Construction: -28,600 (-37,000 in 3 years) • Manufacturing: -42,500 (-53,300 in 3 years) • Wholesale: -6,500 • Retail: -19,000 • Transportation: -10,000 • Information: -3,700 • Professional & Technical Services: -20,600 • Employment Services: -9,000 • Leisure & Hospitality: -12,800

  4. A few Industries are still adding jobs but there are no safe bets anymore • Healthcare: +8,200 • Social Assistance: +5,100 • Insurance: +1,200 • Utilities: +700 • Education: +3,600 • Food Manufacturing: +1,000 • Wholesale Nondurable goods: +1,200 • Government: +200

  5. A full labor market recovery is years away…assuming we are in recovery now Late 2012 ~140,000 Jobs Lost ~90,000 Jobs Actual Projected Calculated based on Global Insight Inc US forecast, Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

  6. The Post-Recessionary Landscape • Lower labor force mobility • Postponed retirements • Less consumption- “the new frugality” • Increasing skills requirements • Continued shift to services • Government Policy risk and opportunity • Globalization risk and opportunity

  7. The Shift to Services: Employment Change since 1991 MN Manufacturing vs. Healthcare

  8. Education Requirements are Increasing Twin Cities data presented. Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  9. Education will be even more important in the future • 65% of new job growth will require education beyond high school. • Education beyond high school will be required for 17 out of the 20 fastest growing occupations. • Good communication skills, customer service and computer knowledge will be required for future jobs.

  10. Minnesota is projected to add 270,000 jobs between 2006 and 2016 Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  11. Minnesota is projected to have over 600,000 replacement job openings by 2016 Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  12. Technology is the biggest unknown Employment Commoditization Maturation or “the Golden Age” Microchips? Computer Mfg? Correction IT Services? Expansion/ Speculation? Creative Financing? Inception Nanotech? Green Tech? Time

  13. Skill and knowledge areas for “in demand” jobs • Skills and knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations: • Reading comprehension • Active listening • Speaking • Writing • Active learning • Critical thinking • Customer service • Mathematics • Clerical • Education/training

  14. Working in an era of shortage Labor Availability- Twin Cities Region

  15. Minnesota is Aging When will they retire? How productive can they be? Will there be enough?

  16. An expanding economy will have to do with a slowing labor force

  17. Labor shortages are already here in some places

  18. Where will workers come from?

  19. We need to fix racial disparities in educational attainment

  20. The Aging of Society will Shift Spending Priorities

  21. Some new entrants will be ready for the new labor market…some will not.

  22. Where can I get this information? • Kyle Uphoff (Manager): (651) 259-7185 • Central/SW: Cameron Macht (320) 231-5174 • Northeast: Drew Digby (218) 723-4774 • Northwest: Nate Dorr (218) 333-8220 • Metro: Rachel Vilsack (651) 642-0728 • Southeast: Jennifer Ridgeway (507) 285-7327 www.positivelyminnesota.com

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