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Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies. Rafael Popper – rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester. Guides & Handbooks. The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (2008)

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Foresight:

processes, practices and methodologies

Rafael Popper – rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk

PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester


Guides handbooks l.jpg
Guides & Handbooks

  • The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (2008)

  • Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure Foresight (2007)

  • Global Foresight Outlook (2007)

  • The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook

  • Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated into EU languages)

  • UNIDO Technology Foresight Training Manual


Process a l.jpg

Process A

The EUFORIA case


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Work plan

http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/euforia


Process b l.jpg

Process B

The SCOPE case


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Methodology

Scanning &

Desk studies

(national reports

sub-contracted)

Validation of desk studies

(May-June 2005)

Drivers & trends

(May-June 2005)

Scenarios

(June-July 2005)

Validation & Prioritisation

(August-September 2005)

Recommendations

(December 2005 – January 2006)


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Process C

The iKnow case



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Workplan

The iKnow case


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A Foresight Process…Example of Work Plan / Timeline


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A Foresight Process…Example of Work Plan / Logic Chart

Knowledge Generation


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A Foresight Process…Example of Work Packages (tasks & deliverables)

Tasks

Deliverables

Objectives


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Building a Research Process (RP) Diamond

9 methods

8 methods

7 methods

8 methods

6 methods

vs.

?


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The Foresight Process

Quite often foresight is understood as a process with various complementary phases.

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

Miles (2002), Popper (2008)


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Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Rationales

  • Sponsor(s)

  • Objectives

  • Orientation

  • Resources

  • Core team *

  • Time

  • Money

  • Infrastructure

  • Cultural

  • Political

  • Approaches

  • Time horizon

  • Methodology

  • Workplan

  • Activities

  • Tasks

  • Deliverables

  • Scope

  • - Context

  • Coverage

  • Project team *

  • - skills

  • Partners

  • Sub-contractors

  • Steering Group

  • Experts

  • - Thematic

  • Sectoral

  • - Regional

  • National

  • International

  • Champions

  • Thematic

  • Panels

  • Methodologists

  • Facilitators

  • Rapporteurs

Existing knowledge is amalgamated, analysed and synthesised

Tacit knowledge is codified

New knowledge is generated (such as the elucidation of emerging issues, creation of new visions and images of the future, etc.)

Advising

- Strategies

- Policy Options

- Recommendations

- …

Transforming

- Networking

- Policy-making

- Decision-making

- …

  • Learning

  • - Process

  • - Products

  • Evaluation

  • Impacts

  • Efficiency

  • Appropriateness

  • Dissemination

  • - Shared Visions

  • - Foresight Culture

  • - …

The Foresight Process (R. Popper, 2008)

Step 5: evaluating

KNOWLEDGE

Step 4: shaping the future through strategic planning

Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the exploration, analysis and anticipationof possible futures

Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders

Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Objectives and Rationales

  • To map existing strengths/weaknesses and explore complementarities/overlaps of the networking centres/organisations

  • To identify future S&T and socio-economic opportunities and threats that should be addressed

  • To illustrate the unsustainability of the old management and business models and to demonstrate the ‘need’ for international collaboration or cluster formation

  • To function as a forum for involvement and participation of stakeholders in different countries

  • To build a strong vision that the participants of the network/cluster can sign up to

  • To strengthen the strategic capacity of managers of the national centres, as well as national policy makers


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Selection criteria (if applicable!)

  • Futures

    • Require looking ahead at least 10 years, in areas where the outcomes are uncertain. This typically occurs where the future direction of change is rapid, current trends are uncertain or different trends may converge;

  • S&T

    • Have science and technology as the main drivers of change or are capable of impacting substantially on future scenarios;

  • Value-added: Impact

    • Have outcomes that can be influenced, to an extent that is significant for one or more of the economy, society and the environment;

  • Value added: Existing work

    • Are not covered by work carried on elsewhere. However, they must build from areas of active research;

  • Networks

    • Require an inter-disciplinary approach to the science, and bring together groups from academia, business and government. They must not be capable of resolution by a single group; and

  • Buy-in

    • Command the support of the groups most likely to be able to influence the future and be owned by a lead government department.


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Expected outcomes

  • An efficiently functioning network/cluster of upgraded facilities, better placed to:

    • respond to emerging scientific developments and growing multi-disciplinarity

    • meet the demands for new and diverse services

    • ensure better access to unique equipment and data bases

    • attract young researchers, and

    • improve harvesting and exploitation of existing knowledge.


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

SponsorsThe exercise is promoted by national agencies (e.g. SENA, Colciencias, etc.).

In addition, the international sponsors could be considered (e.g. CAB, CAF, etc.).

Project teamThe exercise is organised and managed by a mix of strategic planners from SENA and an national/international consultancy specialising in 3D and Foresight.

DurationGiven the complicated nature of the issues and institutional landscape, the exercise has 18-month duration.

Time horizon7, 10, 15 years (dependent on the issue under consideration, e.g. platforms, markets).


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Participation

  • Its distributed nature – which is required for local knowledge and embeddedness – has the need for:

  • regular face-to-face meetings and

  • special attention to be paid to communication processes.

  • Steering group In addition, a national/regional steering group is built of:

  • facility/company directors and

  • national policy makers

  • …together with several small national working parties of:

  • leading scientists and trainers

  • research managers.


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Panels / Working groupsNational working groups are set up around each of the existing centres – in order to:

    • collect and process national data

    • make sense of foresight results in a localised context.

    • There is a great deal of overlap in membership between all of these groups to ensure communication, while the working language of the transnational groups is English.

  • Experts / MembersMembers are drawn mostly from:

    • research centres,

    • national ministries, and other interested stakeholders, including:

    • business representatives and branch associations.


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Combining methods to:

  • Improve existing knowledge

    • Literature review

    • Benchmarking

  • Gather tacit knowledge

    • Surveys

    • Brainstorming sessions

    • Delphi

  • Create new knowledge

    • Scenario writing

    • Scenario workshops

    • Backcasting


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Combining methods to:

  • Improve existing knowledge

    • Literature review

    • Benchmarking

  • Gather tacit knowledge

    • Surveys

    • Brainstorming sessions

    • Delphi

  • Create new knowledge

    • Scenario writing

    • Scenario workshops

    • Backcasting

  • Stage

  • The exercise begins with an extensive programme of deskwork involving:

  • the preparation of ‘future outlooks’ on several of the sub-fields that constitute the area,

  • the mapping of existing strengths and weaknesses,

  • the exploration of complementarities and overlaps across the current national centres, and

  • an international benchmarking exercise

1

2

3

4

5


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Combining methods to:

  • Improve existing knowledge

    • Literature review

    • Benchmarking

  • Gather tacit knowledge

    • Surveys

    • Brainstorming sessions

    • Delphi

  • Create new knowledge

    • Scenario writing

    • Scenario workshops

    • Backcasting

  • Stage

  • Starting a little later but also working in parallel, a survey is carried out with scientists, industrialists, and public policy makers in order to:

    • capture the likely S&T needs of user communities (the ‘application’ sector)

    • identify key technologies

  • Following this, national and international working groups brainstorm around the emerging results of the exercise with the purpose of:

    • generating topic statements for an (inter)national online Delphi

1

2

3

4

5


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1

2

3

4

5

6

How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Combining methods to:

  • Improve existing knowledge

    • Literature review

    • Benchmarking

  • Gather tacit knowledge

    • Surveys

    • Brainstorming sessions

    • Delphi

  • Create new knowledge

    • Scenario writing

    • Scenario workshops

    • Backcasting

Stage

Delphi is a means of consulting more widely around issues of uncertainty and likely importance.

1

2

3

4

5

Statement 1

Statement 2

Statement 3

Statement n


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Combining methods to:

  • Improve existing knowledge

    • Literature review

    • Benchmarking

  • Gather tacit knowledge

    • Surveys

    • Brainstorming sessions

    • Delphi

  • Create new knowledge

    • Scenario writing

    • Scenario workshops

    • Backcasting

Stage

Delphi is also used as a prioritisation tool, for example, identifying IST application areas contributing to EU goals

1

2

3

4

5

  • TOP 5 AREAS

  • Education and learning

  • Social welfare/ public services

  • Government

  • Work organisation

  • Cultural diversity


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Combining methods to:

  • Improve existing knowledge

    • Literature review

    • Benchmarking

  • Gather tacit knowledge

    • Surveys

    • Brainstorming sessions

    • Delphi

  • Create new knowledge

    • Scenario writing

    • Scenario workshops

    • Backcasting

  • Stage

  • Drawing upon the results of earlier steps, the project team draft several scenarios that portray the region’s scientific and industrial profiles in different worlds, depending upon:

    • the level of collaboration between stakeholders, and

    • the governance and renewal of the national centres.

  • These are used to:

    • illustrate to a wide audience the unsustainability of ‘business as usual’, and

    • demonstrate the ‘need’ for (inter)national collaboration

1

2

3

4

5


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Combining methods to:

  • Improve existing knowledge

    • Literature review

    • Benchmarking

  • Gather tacit knowledge

    • Surveys

    • Brainstorming sessions

    • Delphi

  • Create new knowledge

    • Scenario writing

    • Scenario workshops

    • Backcasting

  • Stage

  • The desk-scenarios are used in a scenario workshop to:

    • generate a strong future vision (in the form of a ‘success scenario’) that the national ministries, national centres, and national communities can sign up to, and

    • lead to the proposal of concrete recommendations for moving forward through a backcasting exercise

1

2

3

4

5


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • However, the elaboration of the success scenario on the future network/cluster requires the development of actions under several important topics, such as:

  • design of common research agendas for applied and advanced research;

  • opportunities for acquiring and sharing equipment, knowledge and skills;

  • new access schemes to national centres’ resources;

  • new collaboration modes and diversification of services;

  • increase in multidisciplinarity of research fields;

  • gaining pan-European significance;

  • optimisation of knowledge exploitation and innovation processes;

  • communication across the network of facilities; and

  • design of the infrastructure of the networked facility or cluster (for example, centralized with sub-nodes, virtual, etc.), determined by its function.


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Once (a) the results have been generated and (b) recommendations articulated, the national and international structures put in place are transformed into implementation bodies. In this phase, an important challenge is:

    • to attract the necessary funding – from national governments and the EC – to carry through the recommendations. But with clear plans based upon extensive research and consultation, it is much easier to convince funding bodies of the merits of the network.

  • Product benefitsForesight has created a codified output that is useful for follow-up action

  • Process benefitsForesight has also provided a forum for the involvement and participation of stakeholders in different countries. The strategic dialogue space afforded by foresight has aided communication, understanding and collaboration across geographical and organisational boundaries that would otherwise have been difficult to bridge.


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How could foresight network/cluster facilities?

Pre-Foresight

Recruitment

Generation

Action

Renewal

  • Since the network/cluster could become a large facility even with pan-European significance, regular strategic thinking exercises should be conducted for:

    • the identification of major breakthroughs in related fields that might require adjustments of the network/cluster’s vision.

  • This could be done by:

    • launching successive rounds of foresight

    • establishing a permanent horizon scanning unit

    • organising regular monitoring, evaluation and knowledge dissemination forums

    • Etc.


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A Foresight Process…Selecting methods

Most Foresight methods are NOT different from those used in other disciplines. Foresighters use to borrow and adapt methods from management, planning and social sciences.

The uniqueness of “foresight methods” is the combination of:

futures thinking;

networking; and

policy-making.

From methods you think you know...

…to methods you think

you don’t know…

…to methods you don’t know

you don’t know…

There are plenty of methods that can be used in Foresight Processes…


There are of course many other methods that can be used 33 methods classified by type of technique l.jpg
There are, of course, many other methods that can be used…33 methods classified by Type of Technique

Source: R. Popper (2008)


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The Foresight Diamond(methods by type of knowledge source)

Strongly influenced by imagination

FLACSO 2008

Focus on Scenarios

Strongly influenced by experiences and knowledge sharing

Strongly influenced by discussions and knowledge exchange

Strongly influenced by facts & data


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9 methods

8 methods

7 methods

8 methods

6 methods

vs.

?

Building a Research Process (RP) Diamond


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Methodology X (Forward)

Wild cards

SWOT

Delphi

Citizen Panel

Expert Panel

Evidence

+

Broad Expertise

+

Wild Creativity

+

Interaction

+

Local Expertise

+

Strategic Creativity

Methodology X

(Forward)

Scanning

Delphi

Wild Cards

Citizen panel

Workshop-type activity aimed at identifying possible events which may challenge the occurrence of ‘highly probable’ situations.

Large-scale exploratory study assessing the likeliness of occurrence and possible impacts of main issues highlighted by the scanning activity.

Internal activity (possibly desk-work) aimed at synthesising outcomes in terms of current strengths and weaknesses as well as future opportunities and threats.

Conference-type activity aimed at identifying major public concerns on critical issues.

Reduced group of key stakeholders looking at future implications of main findings.

Expert panel

Detailed analysis of main issues around a particular sector/theme of study (sub-contracted).

Scanning

SWOT


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Methodology X (Backward)

Wild cards

Delphi

Citizen Panels

Expert Panels

Scanning

Strategic Creativity

+

Local Expertise

+

Interaction

+

Wild Creativity

+

Broad Expertise

+

Evidence

Methodology X

(Backward)

SWOT

Expert panels

SWOT

Citizen panels

Wild Cards

Internal activity aimed at identifying the success or failure of similar policy recommendations being implemented in comparable contexts, and better informing decision-making.

Groups of experts looking at future implications of SWOT findings and clustering main issues into broader dimensions, such as social, technological, economic, etc.

Regional task forces contextualising main issues and evaluating public acceptance.

Large-scale normative study aimed at formulating policy recommendations.

Delphi

internal activity aimed at identifying disruptive events and situations.

Scanning

Large-scale activity (e.g. workshop) aimed at identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats related to a sector / theme / technology / etc.


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SCOPE 2015Scenarios for Research and technology development cooperation with Europe

EU-LA

COOPERATION

http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/prest/SCOPE


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Project context and objectives

Scenarios of future science and technology developments in developing countries 2015

Project supported by DG Research Directorate K-2 Science and Technology Foresight

Objectives

To produce scenarios for the year 2015 focused on contextualised S&T developments in selected regions of developing countries;

To analyse the consequences of the scenarios for Europe and European RTD policy;

To use the above to provide advice to the European Union in the field for RTD policies in relation to developing countries.



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Regional Cooperation

SCOPE 2015 LA countries (Argentina, Colombia, Chile and Venezuela) prepared a common scenario for the future cooperation on Foresight activities under the framework of LARA(Latin American Research Area)

2015


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Thematic Areas for Latin America

Biotechnology on agro, health and clothing – e.g. genomic, proteomic

ICT – software, services, applications, cultural and artistic content, Communication, Informatics Microelectronics, bioinformatics

Natural resources and environmental sciences – e.g. environmental certification of agro-processes, Biodiversity

Health

Agro-science and agriculture - Food engineering and technology, Food security

Energy and gas, nuclear technology

Material Sciences - metals, polymers, nanotechnology

Natural products – leather, textiles and wood

Aquaculture and fishing

Space technology

Clean technologies – for bio-products and bio-processes

Mining

Transport

Fine chemistry

Process engineering

Electronics

EU PriorityThemes

  • Health

  • Food, agro & biotechnology

  • ICT

  • Nanotech.

  • Energy

  • Environment

  • Transport

  • Socio-economic

  • Security and space


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Socio-economic Themes for LA

Regional and territorial integration problems

Internal exclusion problems

learning from EU experiences with NMS

Social inclusion

Social innovation

Economy & sociology of technological change

Work and employment

Entrepreneurship


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Forms of cooperation

Strengthening the SMEs

especially building capacities (creativity, innovation, design) of human resources

Technological transfer

Building research capabilities

mobility programmes

Building capabilities of primary education educators

Recognising labs and certificates of the countries

Creating a joint observatory for S&T and funds

Creating markets and investments


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Actions that needs to be taken

Targeting society’s needs

Reaching society

Mapping and exploiting regional needs and commonalities

Strengthening the SMEs

Technological transfer

Recognising labs and certificates of the countries

Creating a joint observatory for S&T and funds

Creating markets and investments

Creating content and information in Spanish to build Web-based knowledge pool


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ESCENARIOS 2020

Cooperación en Prospectiva Euro-latina

Octubre 23, 2008

Flacso – Ciudad de México


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Agenda

12:30 Construcción de grupos y dinámica del seminario-taller (5 minutos)

12:35 Ejes para la construcción de escenarios de articulación y cooperación entre la UE y ALC (10 minutos)

12:45 Primera Parte:

Elaboración de Escenarios de éxito (60 minutos)

Priorización y pertinencia de factores retardadores y aceleradores del cambio (30 minutos)

Diseño de Indicadores de logro y estrategias (45 minutos).

16:30 Segunda parte:

Presentación de resultados en plenaria


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ROLES

Each group should appoint a chair and a rapporteur. Either or both of these people may be responsible for writing notes onto whiteboards and flip charts, etc.

Chair’s role: to keep the break-out groups to their task; to ensure that all participants have a say and that people are not being excluded due to other people’s forcefulness or superior status, to defuse conflicts.

Rapporteur’s role: to keep notes on the process and decisions, and be prepared to report these back to the workshop. Please make brief presentations – 5 minutes at the absolute maximum. Discussion at this point should be mainly a matter of clarification and points of information.

Everybody’s role: Remember that you are being asked to participate as an individual, not a representative of an organisation. Please talk on the basis of your views, your knowledge. One ground-rule of Foresight work is that remarks are not attributed to individuals, and people should be free to express their views (and argue about each other’s views, in the spirit of constructive dialogue!). Of course, due attribution and thanks should be provided (unless requested otherwise) for work carried out, data provided, statistical analysis, etc.


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Instrucciones

1. Cada grupo elaborará un escenario de éxito dentro de la situación establecida. En cada uno de ellos deberá indicar:

(15 min) actores

(15 min) mecanismos de cooperación y organización

(15 min) temas y focos de trabajo

(15 min) factores direccionadores del escenario (LA; EU; EU-LA)

(15 min) implicaciones y grandes preguntas.

2. Luego cada grupo deberá generar estrategias para el desarrollo de una serie de factores claves en la gestión de la cooperación: limitantes (frenos) y aceleradores del cambio (motores). Las estrategias deberán disminuir la influencia de los factores limitantes y potenciar la influencia de los factores aceleradores. Los grupos podrán escoger factores pertinentes al caso mexicano dentro de la lista suministrada a modo de ejemplo, o podrán incluir sus propios factores.


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ESCENARIOS FLACSO-EULAKS

Tipo de Cooperación amplia:

Entrenamiento y capacidades; asesoría y apoyo

Investigación conjunta y construcción de plataformas

Integración Informal

Integración Formal

Grado de Integración

Tipo de Cooperación focalizada:

Entrenamiento y capacidades; asesoría y apoyo


Type of cooperation l.jpg
Type of Cooperation

Knowledge Transfer

Advice / Support

Process Design

Methodology support

Process Management

Training / Capacities

Basic

Intermediate

Advanced

Post-graduate

Sustainable Partnership

Joint Research

LA funded

EU funded

EU-LA funded

Shared Platforms

Knowledge base

Infrastructures

Instruments


Type of integration l.jpg
Type of Integration

Formal

Convenios y

Contratos

Desarrollo de

instituciones

Creación de fondos,

Programas de

Formación avanzada,

Movilidad, programas

y proyectos

de investigación

informal

Uniones temporales

Eventos científicos

Puntuales u ocasio-

nales, contactos

Personales

Servicios de asesoría

y

consultoría


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ESCENARIOS FLACSO-EULAKS

Tipo de Cooperación amplia:

Transferencia de conocimiento; asesoría y apoyo

Investigación conjunta y construcción de plataformas

A

B

Integración Informal

Integración Formal

Grado de Integración

C

D

Tipo de Cooperación focalizada:

Transferencia de conocimiento; asesoría y apoyo


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1. Taller de Desarrollo de los escenarios (15 minutos para cada factor)

1. a) Actores principales (públicos, privados, académicos, sociales)

Mexicanos

Nivel nacional

Nivel regional

Nivel sectorial

Internacionales

1. b) Mecanismos de cooperación prospectiva (y porqué)

Asesoría y apoyo

Entrenamiento y desarrollo de capacidades

Investigación conjunta

Desarrollo de plataformas de aprendizaje


1 factores para los escenarios l.jpg
1. Factores para los escenarios

1. c) Temas y focos

Contenido

Mecanismos de selección de los temas y focos

1. d) Factores direccionadores (drivers)

Latinos (e.g. FLACSO)

Europeos (e.g. FP8)

Euro-Latinos (e.g. EULAKS)


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1. Factores para los escenarios

1. e) Implicaciones y grandes preguntas

Política Pública

Desarrollo académico

Desarrollo socioeconómico

Desarrollo territorial


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Oportunidades de Cooperación

Convocatoria Comisión Europea FP7

Activity 8.3. Major trends in society and their implications

Area 8.3.2. Societal trends and lifestyles - SSH-2009-3.2.2. Social platform on research for families and family policies – EUR 1.5M (support action)

Activity 8.4. Europe in the world

Area 8.4.1. Interactions and interdependences between world regions and their implications - SSH-2009-4.1.2 Geopolitics and the role of Europe in a changing world – EUR 3M (coordinating action)

Convocatorias con fondos latinoamericanos

Actividades


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Reglas de juego de la Comisión Europea

Coordination and support actions (coordinating actions)

At least 3 independent legal entities, each of which is

established in a MS or AC, and no two of which are

established in the same MS or AC.

Coordination and support actions (support actions)

At least 1 legal entity

Reglas de juego desde la cooperación latinoamericana


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2. Taller de Estrategias de Cooperación

Los grupos seleccionarán tres factores aceleradores y tres factores retardadores del cambio, según su pertinencia y relevancia en el escenario (30 minutos).

Los grupos discutirán la lista suministrada de factores. Podrán añadir factores por consenso si lo consideran necesario (15 minutos)

Cada participante dentro del grupo tendrá derecho a 3 votos para elegir los factores aceleradores y retardadores. La votación se realizará individualmente, luego se consolidarán los resultados de acuerdo con el número de votos y se construye un consenso. (15 minutos)

Una vez seleccionados los factores aceleradores y retardadores, los grupos construirán los indicadores de logro y las estrategias para cada factor (1 hora)


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Factores retardadores del cambio

Comunicación. Necesidad de presupuesto para traducción, sobrecarga la coordinación y debilita la interacción.

Demandas presupuestarias emergentes. El proyecto tomó un auge demasiado elevado en relación al proyecto original, requiriendo un mayor presupuesto para su ejecución.

La asimetría de condiciones institucionales y capacidades de los miembros dificultan la asimilación de contenidos y la fluidez de los procesos organizativos.

La inexperiencia de algunas instituciones, coordinadores y miembros de la red en la gestión de redes de conocimiento de amplia escala multicultural y en la gestión de las pasantitas).

La falta de referentes comunes para la gestión de redes de conocimiento multiculturales y complejas. Muchas dificultades podrían anticiparse y resolverse fácilmente si se contara con información previa de como se pueden poner en marcha redes complejas.

Disparidad en mecanismos de control de las instituciones y desconocimiento de los mismos.

El costo de vida de Europa afecta los recursos para las movilidades provenientes de América Latina.

La escasez de tiempo de los coordinadores locales debido a sus compromisos institucionales dificulta la óptima atención a los pasantes.

Apoyo Institucional. Usualmente las instituciones participantes cargan al personal con numerosas actividades que disminuyen el tiempo disponible para las actividades de la red.

Falta de Incentivos. El tiempo de dedicación de la coordinación no es compensado con el porcentaje asignado.

Problemas de visa de AL-UE, especialmente movilidades desde Perú. Se requirieron 4 meses para activar la movilidad Perú España; negada visa de Perú a Hungría; al menos 2 meses para lograr una visa ocasiona dificultades de permiso otorgado por la institución para la realización del tránsito.

Perfil Idóneo y Competencias Claves. Dificultades personales de concursantes seleccionados (que implicaron la selección de un nuevo candidato y, por ende, un nuevo plan de trabajo), fueron las principales causas del corrimiento del plan de movilidades.


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Factores aceleradores del cambio

Gestión especializada de la red. La conformación de un Comité Científico y de Gestión de apoyo a la articulación de actividades de la Red.

Visión compartida de futuro. Identidad de los Coordinadores de la Red con la misión a ser alcanzada, así como la necesidad de involucrar a otros actores y promover la cultura del pensamiento a largo plazo como estrategia de desarrollo social.

Compromiso. Dedicación de los miembros de la Red y los Coordinadores.

Dinamismo y desarrollo de puentes. Liderazgo institucional y acceso a contactos claves.

Respaldo y credibilidad. Apoyo de organizaciones que confían en la seriedad de las academias involucradas.

Elevada curva de experiencia. La experiencia internacional de instituciones líderes en la organización de procesos colaborativos complejos facilito la orientación del proceso.

Aprovechamiento de la diversidad. La variedad de contextos culturales introduce riqueza de contenidos, metodologías, percepciones y formas de ver las situaciones.

Enfoque en el aprendizaje colectivo. El enfoque de la red orientado al desarrollo de capacidades motiva a las personas e instituciones a asumir comportamientos proactivos. Las personas y las instituciones perciben beneficios tangibles a corto, mediano y largo plazo.

Contacto cercano preexistente. Grado de Confianza y Conocimiento previo entre los miembros facilita el establecimiento de contactos.

Integración social. El tiempo dedicado a las actividades sociales facilito el establecimiento de lazos personales entre los miembros, lo cual a su vez contribuyo a la gestión de las soluciones de dificultades.

Visibilidad. El desarrollo de actividades con resultados visibles promueve la cooperación y maximiza las oportunidades colectivas.

Aprovechamiento de dinámicas emergentes. Durante el transcurso de las actividades de la red surgen oportunidades no previstas que pueden conducir a resultados de alto impacto y prolongan la vida de la red.


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Factor crítico de éxito

Indicadores de Logro

Estrategia

ESCENARIOS DE ÉXITO: CAMINO AL FUTURO DESEADO


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Factor crítico de éxito

Indicadores de Logro

Estrategia

ESCENARIOS DE ÉXITO: CAMINO AL FUTURO DESEADO

Número de idiomas en

las que se traducen de las

publicaciones de la red

Número de artículos en

revistas indexadas

Resaltar logros en revistas,

reportes, publicaciones

  • Reconocimiento

  • Valor Agregado

Movilizar network personales

y ofertar productos atractivos

y de alta calidad

Número de invitaciones

y participaciones en eventos

centrales de prospectiva

Priorizar ingreso de

nuevos miembros en términos

de prestigio y trabajo

en el campo

Número de solicitudes

de ingreso

Número de vinculaciones

con organismos relevantes

(CYT, internacionales, etc)


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Many thanks

rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk