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Enhancing Aviation Weather Services for Efficient Flights

Explore the advancements in aviation weather services and forecasting techniques presented at the symposium, aimed at improving safety and efficiency in air travel. Topics include new observations, products, and training methods. Learn about user-oriented forecasts and the drive towards reducing weather-related delays and accidents. Discover innovative tools like the Aviation Forecast Preparation Software (AVNFPS) and decision aid examples.

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Enhancing Aviation Weather Services for Efficient Flights

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  1. International Symposium on Nowcasting, Very Short Range Forecasting, Value Added Services and User-Oriented Aerodrome Forecasts Kevin JohnstonNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Weather Service Aviation Services Branch 9-10 September 2005, Toulouse, France

  2. Today’s Topics • NWS Aviation Program Initiatives • Observations • New Forecast Techniques • New Products • Training • User Oriented Forecasts

  3. Aviation Weather:A Key Element of the NWS Mission • NWS is a Major Partner in Helping the FAA • NWS is Committed to Improving the Information We Provide • The Status Quo is Not Acceptable • Goal by FY12: • Reduce Commercial Delays Due to Weather by 10%; • Reduce General Aviation Deaths Due to Weather by 25%

  4. NWS Aviation ProgramNew and Improved Observations • Water Vapor Sensor • TAMDAR

  5. NWS Aviation ProgramNew and Improved Products

  6. NWS Aviation ProgramNew and Improved Products

  7. NWS Aviation ProgramWFO Applications and Products-AVNFPS

  8. NWS Aviation ProgramTraining • Distant Learning for Forecasters • Low Ceiling and Visibility • Air Traffic Operations • Convection • Improved TAF • Enhanced Pilot Training

  9. NWS Aviation ProgramWe’re Seeing Dividends Today • Improved Accuracy of Terminal Aviation Forecasts • 11 Percent Improvement over FY 05 Goal for False Alarm Rate of IFR Conditions • POD Stable

  10. NWS Aviation Program • NWS Recognizes Shortfalls • Team charged over next 3 months • Goal is to Define the Weather Information, Product, and Service Delivery Environment to Meet FAA’s Weather Needs

  11. NWS Aviation Program • Our Process • Obtain FAA-wide Requirements • Design Products and Services To Meet Requirements • Design System to Provide Products and services • Design Prototype • Design Transition Strategy • System Design Within 15 Months

  12. User Oriented ForecastsEditing Icing Potential Grid

  13. User Oriented Forecasts Close-up of TRACON Area • DFW airport • Four cornerposts

  14. User Oriented Forecasts TRACON Status Inputs • Current Icing Potential (CIP) • Forecast Icing Potential (FIP) • Forecast Icing Severity (FIS) • Turbulence (GTG) • Thunderstorm (TST) • Collaborative Convective Forecast Product • AutoNowcaster • TAF and 6 Hr CCFP from RUC

  15. User Oriented Forecasts TRACON Status Algorithm (Graphic) Red, Yellow, Green CIP Red, Yellow, Green FIP/FIS Display GTG Red, Yellow, Green TST Red, Yellow, Green

  16. User Oriented Forecasts

  17. User Oriented Forecasts TRACON Status Algorithm (Text) • Inputs • Initial color assessment • CIP/FIP/FIS combination • Icing/turbulence/thunderstorm combination

  18. User Oriented Forecasts TRACON Status Color Assessment • Green (<30) • Yellow (30-60) • Red (>60) • Thresholds readily configured.

  19. User Oriented Forecasts Combinations • CIP/FIP/FIS Combination • Early hours, apply CIP. • Later hours, apply FIP/FIS. • Icing/turbulence/thunderstorm Combination • Use worst case.

  20. User Oriented Forecasts Decision Aid Example

  21. User Oriented Forecasts Decision Aid Example

  22. User Oriented Forecasts Decision Aid Example

  23. AVNFPS “Aviation Forecast Prep Software” • IMPROVING FORECASTS THROUGH METWATCH AND INTEGRATION OF FORECAST TECHIQUES • PROVIDES INTERFACE TO BUILD USER PRODUCTS

  24. AVNFPS “Aviation Forecast Prep Software” What does AVNFPS 3.0 have? • Conditional climatology • Allows individual forecast verification • Use of Tactical Decision Aids “TDAs” • Makes use of guidance to produce first guess TAFs. • Comprehensive QC for syntax errors and uses conditional climo to check for “not likely” CIG/VIS/Wnd combinations in the TAF.

  25. AVNFPS “Aviation Forecast Prep Software”

  26. AVNFPS “Aviation Forecast Prep Software” Input from the developmental agencies… • Working with NCEP, in the process of verifying the SREF “Short Range Ensemble Forecast” for IFR and below guidance. • MDL has a team working at the 3/4d data • Working with FSL and the RUC team on what they can do for us…using CIG/VIS grids • Looking at software that produces a “fuzzy logic TAF

  27. User Oriented Forecasts • Issues • Today’s products stand-alone--Not readily integrated into ATM Decision Support Systems • Weather people doing—manpower intensive • ATM DSS need to evolve to automate and determine impacts

  28. Thank You-Questions?

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