A Rapid Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for Conservation & Management in New Mexico

1. A Rapid Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for Conservation & Management in New Mexico Carolyn Enquist George Wright Society Conference March 14, 2011

2. Talk Outline • Background • The Approach • Closing remarks & future research

3. (PNAS 2005) October 2002 May 2004 Source: C. Allen Photos: C.D. Allen, USGS

4. Future climate projections for the Southwest Map Source: Hoerling & Eischeid 2007, “Dust Bowl” forecast by Seager et al. 2007, Science.

5. The Challenge of Climate Change What does this mean for my system? Will I be able to meet my goals? WHERE DO I BEGIN??? How do I deal with the uncertainty AND complexity? Graphic: J. Kastner Slide: Molly Cross, WCS

6. Indentified Framing Questions What are implications for conservation priorities in NM & Southwest? How do we prioritize action? How do we identify adaptation strategies? How do we reduce vulnerability & increase resilience? How do we work together & exchange knowledge? Graphic: J. Kastner Slide: Molly Cross, WCS Questions: TNC & University of Arizona Workshop for Resource Managers (McCarthy, Enquist & Garfin, Eos 2008)

7. Approach: An Integrated Assessment Framework • Rapid regional assessment of climate exposure (Girvetz et al. PLoS One) • Identify observed physical & ecological impacts • Analyze recent & future climate exposure • Determine implications for conservation priorities (Enquist et al. in review) • Evaluate exposure relative to ‘surrogates of sensitivity’ • Develop ‘hypotheses of vulnerability’ • Prioritize action at regional level • Landscape-scale conservation adaptation planning (Cross et al. in review) • Identifying adaptation options in high priority landscapes

8. Lines: USGS HUC-8 Identify observed physical impacts • 1. Identify climate-linked physical changes in the West: • Increased aridity • More rain than snow • Declines in snowpack • Changes in the timing of peak stream flows 2. Look for evidence of this across the state: Declines in snowpack (green dots) (NRCS SNOTEL) Earlier peak streamflows(blue) (Stewart et al. 2004)

9. Identify observed ecological impacts • Population changes • Mortality & recruitment • Shifts in distributions • # Cases: 40 • Changes in phenology • # Cases: 2 • Invasive species • Non-native & native • # Cases: 5 • Altered disturbance regimesFire, erosion, etc. • # Cases: 2

10. Evaluate recent climate exposure Composite of T & PPT departures (relative to 1961-1990) 1991-2005 2000-2005 Base data source: PRISM (Daly et al. 1994)

11. Evaluate exposure + sensitivity • Sensitivity Proxies: • Conservation areas (from ecoregional assessments) • Drought-sensitive species (across taxa) Potential vulnerability to climate change 1991-2005 2000-2005 Source: Enquist & Gori 2008, TNC report, www.nmconservation.org

12. winter spring summer fall annual Evaluate recent climate exposure Trend in moisture stress (1970-2006) 1991-2005 Base data source: PRISM (Daly et al. 1994) Enquist, Girvetz & Gori, TNC report, ms in prep.

13. Evaluate future climate exposure 2020-2039 2080-2099 Base data source: IPCC-AR4, downscaled to 12km by Maurer et al. (2007,Green Data Oasis), http://www.engr.scu.edu/~emaurer/data.shtml

14. More exposure Less exposure annual Source: SWreGAP Implications for watersheds & species of concern

15. Catastrophic Fire (2000) Goat Peak pika Post-fire Erosion Jemez Mountains salamander Forest dieback Select Landscape for Adaptation Planning The Jemez Mountains: Bandelier National Monument, Santa Fe National Forest, Valles Caldera National Preserve, Los Alamos National Lab

16. Monitor and evaluate action plan efficacy Build conceptual model • Repeat for: • more targets • more objectives • more information Implement action plan Assess climate change impacts Identify future climate scenarios ID info. needs Identify intervention points and management actions ID info. needs Develop action plan Evaluate actions Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework Select conservation target and Define management objective Adaptation planning phase Implementation & evaluation phase Cross et al, in review

17. Workshop outcomes • Identification of adaptation strategies: • local managers & scientists worked together to break down uncertainty paralysis. • Transparent process: • Assumptions and logic documented, justifying specific actions. • Identified future information/research needs. • Provided impetus for landscape management: • collaboration and continued dialogue via formation of informal CC learning network.

18. Four Corners assessment & workshops 4. Bear River Basin Robles & Enquist 2011 2. Gunnison Basin Glick et al. 2011 3. Four Forest Restoration Initiative (“4-FRI”) 1. Jemez Mountains

19. Closing remarks & current research • Vulnerability assessment needs to be a dynamic process • How do we track the fingerprints of • climate change impacts? V= (E + S – AC) “Phenology…is perhaps the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change.” (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007)

20. Closing remarks & current research • Science • Adaptation • Mitigation • Communication

21. Acknowledgments Dr. Dave Gori (TNC-NM) Dr. Evan Girvetz (TNC, UW) Dr. Molly Cross (WCS) Dr. Gregg Garfin (U Arizona) Anne Bradley (TNC-NM) Patrick McCarthy (TNC-NM) carolyn@usanpn.org www.usanpn.org