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Review of the 2000 Regional Airport System Plan

Review of the 2000 Regional Airport System Plan. September 29,2006. Purpose. Summarize prior RASP work on alternatives to new runways Obtain input from RAPC Incorporate input in Phase 1. Topics for Today. RAPC’s Role Bay Area Airport System Overview RASP Aviation Forecasts

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Review of the 2000 Regional Airport System Plan

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  1. Review of the 2000 Regional Airport System Plan September 29,2006

  2. Purpose • Summarize prior RASP work on alternatives to new runways • Obtain input from RAPC • Incorporate input in Phase 1

  3. Topics for Today • RAPC’s Role • Bay Area Airport System Overview • RASP Aviation Forecasts • Airport Constraints • RASP Alternatives to new runways -New Air Traffic Control Technology (Ph 1) -Demand Management (Ph 1)

  4. RAPC’s Role • Recommendations may be implemented by the region through other agencies and the airports • MTC: Aviation Element of the RTP • BCDC: Policies and recommendations used in San FranciscoBay Plan • ABAG: Land use planning; demographic projections

  5. Some of RAPC’s Past Activities • Periodic updates to the Regional Aviation System Planning Analysis • General Aviation Element (2003) • Air Passenger Surveys (since 1975) • Airport Land Use Compatibility • Original ALUC legislation • Original ALUC Planning Handbook • Airport Land Use Brochure (2005)

  6. Some of RAPC’s Past Activities (Cont.) • Airport Overflight noise forums (as part of the RASP) • Studies of civil aviation use of Hamilton AFB (since closed) • Travis AFB Joint Use Feasibility Study (1976) • Oakland Airport Service Case (CAB)

  7. The 2000 RASP Included: • Updated Demand Forecasts (2010 and 2020) • Passengers • Cargo • Flights • Airspace and Runway Capacity Analyses • Causes of Delay • Computer simulations of new runways and effects of demand management • Alternatives to New Runways • Overflight Noise Forums (4)

  8. 2000 RASP (Cont.) • Air quality: Aircraft and auto emissions • Ground transportation: projected traffic volumes • Bay fill: Bay Resources Impact “Scorecard”

  9. Bay Area Airport System • Three major commercial airports: • San Francisco International • Oakland International • Norman J. Mineta San Jose International • 23 Airports serving general aviation • 1 Military: Travis AFB • 1 Federal: Moffett Federal Airfield (NASA)

  10. Bay Area Air Ports

  11. 1998 SFO: 65.6% SJC: 18.2% OAK: 16.2% Total 56.6 MAP 2005 SFO: 56.6% OAK: 24.8% SJC: 18.6% Total 58.0 MAP Air Carrier Airports(Passenger Shares)

  12. Airport Roles • SFO: • Only airport for some domestic service • Hub for United • the region’s primary International airport (passengers/air cargo) • OAK: • frequent service in dense, short haul markets • low fares • Fed Ex Hub • SJC: • frequent service in dense, short haul markets • limited air cargo service

  13. General Aviation • Smaller private and business aircraft • 5,800 planes in Bay Area • Runways: 2,200 ft to 6,000+ ft long • Over 1 million annual takeoffs and landings (not counting training flights) • 4-5% of flights on primary air carrier runways at SFO/OAK/SJC are GA

  14. Demand Forecasting Approach • Each airport has a primary catchment area for passengers • Share of passengers determined by: • Quantity, quality, and price of service • Services provided are a function of airline route strategies • Network carrier (e.g., United) • Point-to-Point carrier (e.g., SW)

  15. 2000 RASP Forecasts(1998-2020) • Air Cargo: 3X increase • Air cargo volumes peaked in 2000 and are currently about 25% lower • Air Passengers: 2X increase • Current (2005) air passenger volumes are about 17% lower than forecasted • Air Carrier Flights: 1.6X increase • the average passengers per operation is decreasing at some airports, not increasing as forecasted

  16. Components of Bay Area Air Travel 1998 2020s

  17. Factors Affecting Airport Capacity • Runway Configuration • Number, lateral spacing, arrival and departure dependencies • Fleet mix (heavy and small aircraft) • Traffic Peaking (Arrivals/Departures) • Weather (wind, ceiling, visibility) • Visual or Instrument operations

  18. Airport Constraints-SFO • Runway configuration • Close runway spacing (750 ft. apart): limits arrivals to one runway in poor weather • Crossing runways: requires gaps in arrival stream to get departures out • Fog/low stratus clouds in summer • Average aircraft size is decreasing • Cost of new runways

  19. Airport Constraints-OAK • Single runway with multiple users • sair passenger, cargo, some General Aviation (noise abatement) • North Field limited to General Aviation • Pronounced peaks • Aircraft size static • Cost of new runways

  20. Airport Constraints-SJC • Closely spaced runways • Land area for terminals/parking/ cargo is the main capacity constraint — not runways • Pronounced peaking • Curfew (11:30 pm to 6:30 am) • General aviation use not an issue in terms of runway capacity

  21. Airport Capacity

  22. Bay Area Airspace • A complicated airspace; over 2 million annual flights • Operations are different for good and bad weather • Under some bad weather conditions, airports can experience significant delays and some flights may be cancelled

  23. Insert Figure 3

  24. New Air Traffic ControlTechnology • En route Airspace: • more flights; • safer separation • more direct, fuel efficient routes • Terminal Airspace (30-50 mile from airport runways): • more efficient sequencing of arrivals • more precise flight paths, including curved paths • safer separation of aircraft through wake vortex surveillance • expand number of airports with all weather instrument approach procedures

  25. What is New ATC Technology? • In space: 27 satellites transmit GPS signals • On Aircraft: • Hardware to use GPS signals for precision navigation • equipment to keep aircraft safely separated from each other (reduced controller workload) • On the Ground: • Specialized equipment to enhance GPS signals to improve reliability and accuracy • improved radars • wake turbulence detection/ monitoring equipment • computer automation tools to help controllers efficiently sequence arriving aircraft

  26. New Air Traffic Control Technology • What the RASP said: • Foreseeable advances in technology would not “solve” SFO’s poor weather problem of having only a single runway for arrivals • A new procedure (SOIA) would help to increase arrival capacity at SFO in some weather conditions (procedure implemented in 2004) • the timeframe for introduction of many new technologies is difficult to gauge • new technology issues include safety, redundancy, pilot acceptance, liability, etc.

  27. FAA’s Next Generation Air Traffic System • Goal: handle 3X Traffic by 2025 • More efficient flow of traffic • reduce separation between aircraft without compromising safety • more automation to reduce controller workload • better information sharing between pilots and controllers • Not a “fix” for any particular airport

  28. Future ATC Benefits • All runways • optimal sequencing of heavy and small aircraft to maximize runway capacity • reduced distance between aircraft through wake vortex surveillance • Closely spaced parallel runways • expand time paired operations can take place in weather • closer spacing of any new parallel runways

  29. Today’s Side-by Operation Figure 5

  30. Today’s In-Trail Instrument Approaches Figure 6 - Poor Weather -

  31. SOIA/PRM Operations Figure 7

  32. Demand Management • Strategies to better match demand with runway capacity, generally by limiting operations in some manner • requiring larger aircraft • limiting total operations • limiting operations by time of day • limiting categories of use (e.g, GA)

  33. Airline Deregulation • Before Deregulation (1977) • Airline routes and fares regulated by CAB • After Airline Deregulation • sAirlines choose which cities they want to serve, fares, and type of aircraft to fly

  34. Who Controls Airport Access? • For Some Airports, Congress Does • Two forms: slots or perimeter rules • Four Airports: ORD, JFK, La Guardia, and Reagan National • Airports may propose access restrictions (Part 161) • Review and approval by FAA required

  35. FAA Conditions on Access Controls • Restriction must be reasonable, non arbitrary, and non discriminatory • Does not burden interstate commerce • Maintains safe/efficient airspace • No conflict with other federal laws • Opportunity for public comment • No burden on national airspace system

  36. Demand Management Methods • Landing fees • Airline leases • Other airport regulation consistent with FAA conditions • A future change in federal law, which would allow other methods

  37. What the RASP Evaluated • Increases in aircraft size (seats) • Southern California (737’s to 757’s) • Commuter flights (Turboprops to Reg Jets) • Cap on flights to So. California • Increase Load Factors (to 75%) • Shift all General Aviation to reliever airports

  38. What the RASP Concluded • Demand management could reduce operations by 5-7% at an individual airport • Demand management alone would not prevent future delays at SFO in poor weather

  39. Other Demand Management Approaches • New Authority to Shift Flights from SFO to OAK/SJC • Must address restrictions in federal law • Shift could accelerate capacity problems at OAK/SJC • Need legal mechanism to prevent “backfilling” of shifted flights • Underwater rail connection between SFO and OAK (SB 1562) • high cost/uncertain impact on passengers

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