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Association of Bay Area Governments. Bay Conservation Development Commission. REGIONAL AIRPORT SYSTEM PLAN ANALYSIS Study Update. Prepared for: Regional Airport Planning Committee. June 26, 2009. Meeting Topics. Recap of Historic and Forecast Bay Area Passenger Traffic

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regional airport system plan analysis study update

Association ofBay Area Governments

Bay ConservationDevelopment Commission

REGIONAL AIRPORT SYSTEM PLAN ANALYSISStudy Update

Prepared for:

Regional Airport Planning Committee

June 26, 2009

meeting topics
Meeting Topics
  • Recap of Historic and Forecast Bay Area Passenger Traffic
  • Recent Changes in Airport Shares
  • Forecast of Future Distribution of Passengers at OAK, SFO, and SJC
  • Forecast of Aircraft Operations and Fleet Mix
  • Preliminary Capacity and Delay Analysis
bay area airports handled 58 6m passengers last year after peaking at 64m in 2000
Bay Area Airports Handled 58.6M Passengers Last Year After Peaking at 64M in 2000

Bay Area Passengers by Airport(Enplaned + Deplaned)

Average Annual Growth1984-2008 2.6%

1984-2000 4.5%

2000-2008 -1.1%

Source: ACI, and individual airport statistics.

total passengers at the primary bay area airport are forecast at 88m to 129m in 2035

Average Annual Growth

Historic 1990-2007 2.0%

Low BaseHighForecast 2007-2035 1.4% 1.9% 2.7%

128.8

101.3

88.2

60.6

Total Passengers at the Primary Bay Area Airport are Forecast at 88M to 129M in 2035

Actual and Forecast Total Bay Area Airport Passengers2007 and 2035

Source: SH&E analysis.

development of a forecast tracking system is a key element of the study
Development of a Forecast Tracking System is a Key Element of the Study
  • There is always uncertainty surrounding long-term forecasts of aviation demand.
  • This uncertainty is accentuated by current economic conditions.
  • A forecast tracking system will be developed to ensure that the expectations of RAPC and other stakeholders are informed by the latest trends in actual activity.
  • The tracking system will allow RAPC to adjust the timeline on which the region will reach critical capacity thresholds.
domestic o d passengers account for more than two thirds of bay area airport passengers

13.6

19.5

10.0

43.1

Domestic O&D Passengers Account for More Than Two-Thirds of Bay Area Airport Passengers

Sources: Airport Data Reports. U.S. DOT, O&D Passenger Survey. U.S. DOT, T100 Database, Database Products Inc.

geographic distribution of current bay area demand domestic
Geographic Distribution of Current Bay Area Demand – Domestic

2006 Bay Area Domestic PassengersOne dot represents 1,000 passengers

Napa

Napa

Primary airport

1/ Share of Bay Area O&D passengersSource: MTC surveys and SH&E analysis

Bay Area city

distribution of bay area domestic o d passengers by closest airport
Distribution of Bay Area Domestic O&D Passengers byClosest Airport

Closest Major Airport in Bay Area Region

Closest Airport:

Domestic O&D Passengers by Closest Airport

Primary airport

Bay Area city

Source: MTC surveys and SH&E analysis

over the last two years there was a major shift of domestic traffic from oak to sfo
Over the Last Two Years, There Was a Major Shift of Domestic Traffic From OAK to SFO

Airport Shares of Domestic O&D Passengers2006 vs. 2008

2006

2008

2006

2008

2006

2008

Oakland

San Francisco

San Jose

Source: U.S. DOT Origin and Destination Survey, Airport Records, SH&E Analysis

slide10

In 2006, OAK’s Share of Domestic Passengers Equaled its “Closest Airport” Share – But Now It Captures Only 80% of Its Catchment Area Demand

Comparison of Closest Airport Market Shares to Actual Airport Shares of Bay Area Domestic O&D Traffic2006 vs. 2008

Closest Airport

2006

2008

Closest Airport

2006

2008

Closest Airport

2006

2008

Oakland

San Francisco

San Jose

Source: MTC Passenger Surveys, U.S. DOT O&D Survey, SH&E Analysis

slide11
A Perfect Storm of Events Led to the Significant Redistribution of Domestic Traffic Between the Bay Area Airports
  • Launch of Virgin America with SFO Base and Competitive Response of Southwest Airlines and JetBlue
  • Volatile Fuel Prices, a Global Recession, and Declining Passenger Demand
  • Carrier Financial Difficulties, Capacity Reductions, and Consolidation
    • Failure of ATA, Aloha, and Skybus (OAK)
    • Withdrawal of American Airlines and Continental
    • Capacity Reductions by Southwest and Alaska
    • Southwest (50% of SJC seats) increased seat capacity by 6% from 2006 to 2008
    • Significant capacity reductions by other airlines, including American, Alaska and United

At OAK:

At SJC:

the bay area s domestic o d is highly concentrated the top 15 markets account for 63 of the total
The Bay Area’s Domestic O&D is Highly Concentrated – the Top 15 Markets Account for 63% of the Total

Bay Area Top Domestic O&D MarketsYE 3Q 2008

Source: U.S. DOT O&D Survey

slide13

Total Bay Area Top 15 Markets

Aug 06 218

Jun 09 271

% Change +24.3%

Daily Depts

LCCs Greatly Increased SFO Services in the Top 15 Bay Area Domestic Markets, While LCC Flights Decreased at OAK and Held Constant at SJC

Daily Departures by Low Cost Carriers in the Top 15 Bay Area O&D MarketsAugust 2006 and June 2009

-18.2%

0.0%

+8.7x

Aug’06

Jun’09

Aug’06

Jun’09

Aug’06

Jun’09

Oakland

San Francisco

San Jose

Source: OAG Market Files

slide14
SFO Now Has LCC Services in 11 of the Bay Area’s Top 15 Domestic O&D Markets, Compared to Only Two Markets in 2006

Bay Area Top Domestic Market(Rank shown in parentheses) YE 3Q 2008

Seattle(5)

Portland(12)

Boston(13)

New York(2)

Chicago(7)

Bay Area

Washington(11)

Denver* (10)

Las Vegas (4)

Burbank(8)

Ontario (14)

Los Angeles*(1)

Orange Cty. (6)

San Diego(3)

Phoenix(9)

Indicates LCC entry since August 2006 by B6, VX and/or WN

* Indicates LCC service in August 2006

Dallas/Ft. Worth(15)

Source: OAG Market Files, U.S. DOT O&D Survey

lcc entry at sfo reversed or significantly reduced oakland s historic fare advantage
LCC Entry at SFO Reversed or Significantly Reduced Oakland’s Historic Fare Advantage ...

Percent Oakland Average Fare Lower or Higher Than SFO4Q 2006 vs. 4Q 2008

Note: The 6 markets shown each has significant LCC carrier entry at SFO as of 4Q 2008.

Source: U.S. DOT O&D Survey

and had a similar effect at san jose
… and had a Similar Effect at San Jose

Percent San Jose Average Fare Lower or Higher Than SFO4Q 2006 vs. 4Q 2008

Note: The 6 markets shown each has significant LCC carrier entry at SFO as of 4Q 2008.

Source: U.S. DOT O&D Survey

oakland s share of bay area o d passengers dropped substantially in top o d markets
Oakland’s Share of Bay Area O&D Passengers Dropped Substantially in Top O&D Markets

Oakland Share of Bay Area Selected MarketsCY2006 and YE3Q08

O&D Rank

1

2

3

4

5

7

Market Share Reductions also Occurred at SJC – but Were Less Severe

Source: U.S. DOT O&D Survey

reasons why we expect oakland and san jose to rebound
Reasons Why We Expect Oakland and San Jose to Rebound
  • The Oakland and San Jose Market Areas are Forecast to Grow More Rapidly than the San Francisco Market Area (based on Total Household Income)
  • The Current Competitive Battle at SFO is Not Sustainable and Will Eventually Subside
  • Ultimately the Three Airports will Move Toward Fare Parity in the Top Markets Where SFO Now Has Lower Fares (LAX, SAN, LAS, SEA)
actual and forecast bay area airport passenger shares
Actual and Forecast Bay Area Airport Passenger Shares

Domestic O&D Passenger Shares

International Gateway Passenger Shares

unconstrained forecast of total passenger traffic at the primary bay area airports base case
Unconstrained Forecast of Total Passenger Traffic at the Primary Bay Area Airports - Base Case

Actual and Forecast Passengers(in millions)

Oakland

San Francisco

San Jose

Note:

Passenger traffic at Sonoma County Airport is forecast to increase from 205,000 in 2008 to 525,000 in 2020 and 784,000 in 2035 based on Airport Master Plan forecasts – Scheduled Air Carrier Dominant Scenario.

Source: SH&E Analysis

from 2007 to 2035 airport passengers are forecast to increase by 1 2 to 2 2 per year
From 2007 to 2035, Airport Passengers are Forecast to Increase by 1.2% to 2.2% Per Year

Forecast Average Annual Growth in Airport PassengersBase Case (2007 to 2035)

Note: San Francisco is forecast to grow the fastest because long-haul international traffic is forecast to grow faster than domestic traffic.

Source: SH&E Analysis

slide22
The Average Number of Passengers per Flight is Forecast to Increase from 99 in 2007 to 126 in 2035 – Base Case

Actual and Forecast Average Passengers per Operation

Note: San Francisco's average passengers per flight reflects an increasing percentage of international traffic and services over the forecast period.

Source: SH&E Analysis

forecast aircraft operations at the bay area airports base case
Forecast Aircraft Operations at the Bay Area Airports – Base Case

Actual and Forecast Aircraft Operations

Source: SH&E Analysis

preliminary capacity and delay analysis
Preliminary Capacity and Delay Analysis
  • At 64 MAP in 2035, it is Clear that SFO Cannot Accommodate the Unconstrained Forecast
  • SJC’s Two Air Carrier Runways Can Readily Accommodate 16 MAP in 2035
  • The Preliminary Capacity Analysis Indicates that OAK is Approaching its Single-Runway Capacity at 21 MAP
  • Finalization and Review of the Baseline Capacity Analysis Will Determine the Extent and Timing of the Region-Wide Capacity Shortfall