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Presidential elections

Presidential elections. How often?. Fixed term elections every 4 years 2-term limit for individual president According to Article II the election should be held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November i.e. between 2 nd -8 th November. 4 stages of presidential elections.

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Presidential elections

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  1. Presidential elections

  2. How often? • Fixed term elections every 4 years • 2-term limit for individual president • According to Article II the election should be held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November i.e. between 2nd-8th November

  3. 4 stages of presidential elections • Primaries and caucuses – Jan.-early June of election year • National party conventions – August/September • General election campaign – September/November • Election Day and Electoral College – 2nd-8th November

  4. What does it take to become president? What are the constitutional requirements? • Naturally born American citizen • Minimum 35 years old • Residential qualification of 14 years • Not having served more than 2 terms

  5. Political experience • Presidential candidates are often Vice Presidents, State governors or Senators. • Of the 16 politicians nominated as presidential candidates in the last 11 elections up to 2008 9 have been Senators, 6 were Vice Presidents and 5 were governors • What about Obama? • How important is political experience?

  6. Major party endorsement • Vital to be chosen as candidate for one of 2 major parties • Third party candidates have little chance e.g. Ross Perot (1992 and 1996)

  7. Personal characteristics • How many black candidates have there been? • How many Senators or State Governors are women? • Does it help to be married? • Does it help to be faithful if you are married? • What other personal characteristics are important?

  8. Ability to raise large sums of money • Realistic candidates have to raise huge sums of money before the primaries e.g. in 2007 Clinton raised $90m, Obama $70m and McCain $28m • This money comes from individuals and groups and there are strict rules • Only billionaires like Ross Perot can afford to finance campaigns out of their own pockets

  9. Effective organisation • During primaries the candidates do not have their party organisation behind them do they have to set up their own team • This has to be done both nationally and in each state. This needs time, money and ORGANISATION • One of the major reasons why Clinton lost the primary is due to poor organisation

  10. Oratorical skills and being telegenic • Which presidents had it and which didn’t?? • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hORaebYWDwk&NR=1 • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOFdTQAaSBs&feature=related • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjWDrTXMgF8

  11. Sound and relevant policies • Clinton ‘the economy, stupid’ • McCain – campaign finance reform • Obama?

  12. THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY • This is the period between when the candidates declare an intention to run for the presidency and the first contests of the primary season • It is called invisible because much of what occurs cannot actually be seen • In the last election the first candidate declared himself in December 2006 (the election was Nov. 2008). Clinton announced in Jan 2007, Obama in Feb and McCain in April • First primary elections were in Jan 2008

  13. THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY • It is important during this period for the candidate to gain NAME RECOGNITION, raise MONEY and arrange a state-based ORGANISATION • In the past there has been a strong correlation between candidates who have won the invisible primary and those who go on to win the presidential nomination. • Support for candidates is usually expressed through opinion polls. Often in head to head match ups

  14. What can you do to win an invisible primary? • GET A MENTION IN THE MEDIA • Try to get in the national ‘papers • Have an article written about you in a weekly like Time or Newsweek • Get an in-depth interview on tv e.g. The News Hour with Jim Lehrer

  15. What can you do to win an invisible primary? 2. TELEVISED DEBATES • There were 16 televised debates between Democratic candidates and 12 between Republican candidates • On 30th October Clinton fumbled over a question on illegal immigration • immigrantshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eIKC3SQ_AA

  16. 3. STATE SPECIAL EVENTS • Iowa Straw Poll – A Republican fund-raising dinner. Not a good predictor though • Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner – Democratic fund-raiser. Obama made an impressive speech • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tydfsfSQiYc

  17. 4. Visits to key states e.g. Iowa and New Hampshire 5. CANDIDATES PUBLISH BOOKS 6. MONEY RAISING • 1999 Elizabeth Dole ended her presidential bid during invisible primary claiming the money had become the message • Al Gore scared off challengers for the 2000 Democratic nomination because of huge amounts of money raised

  18. The 2008 Invisible primary • The 2008 race was littered with ‘firsts’ • First election since 1952 where neither incumbent president nor incumbent vice-president was a candidate • Lack of incumbents led to a larger field of candidates • By Jan. 2008 were 16 serious candidates

  19. Democratic presidential candidates Jo Biden – US Senator since 1973 Hillary Clinton – US Senator since 2001 Christopher Dodd – US Senator since 1981 John Edwards – US Senator (1969-2005) Mike Gravel – US Senator (1969-81) Dennis Kucnich – US Representative snce 1997 Barack Obama – US Senator since 2005 Bill Richardson – Governor New Mexico since 2003

  20. Republican presidential candidates 2008 Sam Brownback – US Senator since 1996 Rudolph Guiliani – Mayor New York 1994-2001 Mike Huckabee – Governor Arkansas 1996-2007 Duncan Hunter – US Representative since 1981 John McCain – US Senator since 1987 Ron Paul – US Representative snce 1997 Mitt Romney – Governor Massachusetts 2003-7 Fred Thompson – US Senator 1994-2003

  21. Who had the big mo? • What factors do you think led to Clinton having a 28 point lead over Obama throughout 2007? • Who was the front runner for the Republicans during the invisible primary?

  22. Who won the money primary? • During 2007 Clinton raised more money than Obama in 10 out of the 12 months. She raised $154m to Obama’s $129m • In the Republican race it was Romney who raised most money. He raised $112m to Guiliani’s $79m and McCain’s 54m

  23. How important is the invisible primary? • Convention says it is the most important part of the nomination i.e. that whoever is ahead at the close of the invisible primary will win • In 2007 Clinton and Giuliani were ahead in the opinion polls and yet neither ended up as their party’s presidential nominee

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