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Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 10 November 2005

AHIA National Conference 2005 An Ageing Australia Implications of demographic change for the health industry. Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 10 November 2005. Aussies slide towards natural decrease. 1960. 1970. 1980. 1990. 2000. 2010. 2020. 2030. 2040.

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Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 10 November 2005

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  1. AHIA National Conference 2005An Ageing AustraliaImplications of demographic change for the health industry Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 10 November 2005

  2. Aussies slide towards natural decrease 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Recession 8.5 25.4 19.4 1988 Baby Boom 1975 crisis Fertility decline Boomers die off 2035 Natural decrease

  3. Singles beat off couples and families Net growth (000) 1991 2001 2031 2001-2031 Singles 20 24 31 1,628 Couples 24 26 29 1,295 One-parent family 10 11 11 410 Mum, Dad & the Kids 41 33 24 167 Group households 5 4 3 86 Other family 1 1 1 12 Households 6.450 7.789 11.580 3.791 • Mum, Dad & the Kids has been the leading social structure at the household level in Australia for several decades • By 2011 the traditional nuclear family loses supremacy as the dominant household type (to couples) • By 2021 ‘families’ and couples are eclipsed by singles – who then pull ahead in 2020s

  4. Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 2008 81 Child Teen Old Age Adult 1968 71 Child Adult Old Age 1928 63 Boomers redefine 50-something 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Source: ABS 2003a, 3302.0, 3102.0, 3222.0; Australia’s Health 2004 (AIHW)

  5. Baby boomers just won’t die … they will soon influence national budgets 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 Population 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 Year Source: ABS Censuses; ABS Series B Projections September 2003

  6. Total population by single year Boomer mid-point $40,000 350000 40 30 $35,000 54 300000 $30,000 25 ‘Rich’ live longer 250000 Pre-boomer’s slide $25,000 Born 1931 200000 $20,000 70 150000 $15,000 100000 $10,000 50000 $5,000 $0 0 84 87 90 93 96 99 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 It doesn’t get any better after 43-48 … Boomers at their peak until June 2006 … then the slide begins

  7. Retirement now … and next decade Today’s retirees Tomorrow’s retirees • Born pre 1939 • Now aged 65+ • Great Depression & WWII • Frugal by nature • Quite like the term “Senior Citizen” • “Content” and “happy” in retirement • Most make their exit by 2020 … boomers around until the 2030s • Born 1946 – 1961 • Now aged 44 – 59 • First Boomer retires 1 July 2011 • Consumerist by nature • Hippies, punks, dinks & yuppies … and now Seachangers • Will redefine retirement … may well work longer • Boomer retirement impact will peak 2016 - 2021

  8. Further information & contact • The Big Shift 2 – $19.95rrp • Bernard Salt’s column appears in The Australian every Thursday • Bernard Salt’s columns appears monthly in Property Australia and Wish Magazine • Population Growth Report 2005 now available at $595: contact fmevans@kpmg.com.au • Contact: Bernard Salt (03) 9288 5047; bsalt@kpmg.com.au; www.thebigshift.com.au The information contained hereinis of a general nature and is not intended to address thecircumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.

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