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SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR CATTLE & SHEEP 2008/2009. J. Breen, K. Hanrahan, & A. Kinsella Rural Economy Research Centre. Overview of Presentation. Review of 2007 (NFS Data) Situation in 2008 Outlook for 2009 Take Home Message. Situation and Outlook for Cattle 2008/2009.

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situation and outlook for cattle sheep 2008 2009

SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR CATTLE & SHEEP 2008/2009

J. Breen, K. Hanrahan, & A. Kinsella

Rural Economy Research Centre

overview of presentation
Overview of Presentation
  • Review of 2007 (NFS Data)
  • Situation in 2008
  • Outlook for 2009
  • Take Home Message
review of 2007 nfs data
Review of 2007 (NFS Data)
  • Gross Output (Market-based)
    • Excludes SFP, REPS, Disadvantaged Area
    • Includes SCWS in 2008 and 2009
  • Gross Margin & Net Margin
    • Therefore excludes SFP, REPS, Disadvantaged Area
gross output 2008
Gross Output 2008
  • Prices up on 2007
    • Ban on Brazilian beef imports
    • Reduced Supply
    • R3 Steers up 16%
    • O3 Cull Cows up 21%
  • Introduction of the Suckler Cow Welfare Scheme
    • €80 per cow
    • Approx 884,000 cows registered
beef production systems
Beef Production Systems
  • Four Production Systems focused on
    • SS = Single Suckling
    • RD = Rearing Dairy Farms
    • WF = Weanlings to Stores/Finished
    • SF = Stores to Finished
gross output 2008 by production system
Gross Output 2008 by Production system

Up €95 or 24% on SS

2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated

costs of production 2008
Costs of Production 2008
  • 2008 Expenditure versus 2007
    • Feedstuffs up 20%
    • Pasture and forage up 28%
    • Energy up 20%
    • All other Inputs up 6%
gross margin 2007 and 2008 by production system
Gross Margin 2007 and 2008 by Production system

2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated

gross output 2009
Gross Output 2009
  • Average Prices are expected to be largely unchanged compared to 2008
  • Suckler Cow Welfare Payment is expected to be lower
    • €49 per cow assumed
costs of production 2009
Costs of Production 2009
  • 2009 Expenditure versus 2008
    • Feedstuffs down 20%
    • Pasture and forage down 11%
    • Energy down 10%
    • All other Inputs up 2%
gross margin 2007 2008 and 2009 by production system
Gross Margin 2007, 2008 and 2009 by Production system

2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated, 2009 Forecasted

net margin per hectare 2007 2008 2009 all farms
Net Margin Per Hectare 2007, 2008 & 2009 All Farms

2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated, 2009 Forecasted

returns to production
Returns to Production
  • Margin over Direct Costs and Disposable Fixed Costs
  • Non-Disposable Fixed Costs
  • Disposable Fixed Costs
    • Hired Labour
    • Machinery Operating Expenses
    • Depreciation of Machinery
    • Rent of Land
returns to production per ha 2007 2008 2009 all farms
Returns to Production per Ha 2007, 2008 & 2009 All Farms

2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated, 2009 Forecasted

sheep meat markets 2007 08
Sheep Meat Markets 2007/`08
  • Decline in Numbers
    • Flock Numbers down from 35,300 to 33,700
    • Ave Flock Size down from 102 to 97 ewes
  • Lamb Slaughtering down 13% in Ireland
    • France down 8%
  • NZ Lamb Exports down
    • Expected to fall further by 23% in 2008/09
  • Led to higher EU and Irish lamb prices
mid season lamb financial performance 2007
Mid-Season Lamb - Financial Performance 2007

Average

Top 1/3

Source: Teagasc National Farm Survey

€/Ha

795

1078

Output

Direct Costs

351

331

Gross Margin

444

747

mid season lamb technical performance 2007
Mid-Season Lamb - Technical Performance 2007

Average

Top 1/3

Source: Teagasc National Farm Survey

146

150

Lambing %

Weaning %

134

141

Ewes/Ha

8.7

10.9

Kgs Lamb Carcass/Ha

216

284

gross margin ewe
Gross Margin €/ewe

System

2006

2007

2008 1

2009 2

46

55

57

61

Early Lamb

Mid-Season lamb

42

51

53

58

Hill-Blackface

4

6

7

7

2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated, 2009 Forecasted

take home message
Take Home Message
  • Cattle
    • 2008 Prices up but a high cost year
    • Net margin down on 2007
    • 2009 Prices unchanged, costs expected to decline
    • Net margins up on 2007 & 2008
    • Overall 2/3’s still have negative net margin
    • 1/3 have negative net margin when we look at margin over direct and disposable fixed costs
take home message1
Take Home Message
  • Sheep
    • Irish Sheep Numbers/Flock Numbers in Decline
    • Prices in second quarter were up 18%
    • Gross Margin per ewe in 2008 up 4% on 2007
    • Gross Margin per ewe in 2009 up 8% on 2008