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2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast. May 2004 David Pollock The Boeing Company. Introduction. COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast Updated annually since 1993 Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements 10-year forecast horizon (2004-2013)

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2004 commercial gso demand forecast

2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

May 2004

David Pollock

The Boeing Company

introduction
Introduction
  • COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast
    • Updated annually since 1993
    • Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements
    • 10-year forecast horizon (2004-2013)
  • Total demand is lower than the 2003 forecast
    • 211 satellites vs. 233 satellites in 2003 forecast (9% lower)
  • 2004 report offers some new insights into industry trends:
    • Estimate of “realization” of demand expanded to first three years of the forecast
    • Analysis of growth in satellite mass and transponders per satellite presented
    • Respondents’ views on factors affecting demand discussed
2003 gso demand forecast team
2003 GSO Demand Forecast Team

Alexander Liang (T&IWG chair) Aerospace Corporation

David Pollock (forecast chair) Boeing Rocketdyne

Darren Chambo Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company

I-Shih Chang Aerospace Corporation

Gary Goodwin Sea Launch

Ethan Haase Lockheed Martin / International Launch Services

Lisa Hague Boeing Launch Services

B. Ray Hawkins Aerospace Corporation

Bill Hayes Space Systems / Loral

Joe Hopkins Consultant

Doug Howe Boeing Satellite Systems

Mike Izzo Asia Pacific Space Center

Debra Lepore Kistler Aerospace Corporation

Jennifer Miceli Tecolote Research / USAF/SMC/EV

John Sloan FAA AST

forecast methodology
Forecast Methodology
  • Request 10-year projection of GSO satellites launched from satellite operators, manufacturers, and launch service providers worldwide
    • Individual demand requirements from operators
    • Comprehensive market inputs from manufacturers and launch providers
    • Projections by mass class
  • Develop Near-Term (2004-2006) Mission Model
    • “Bottom-up” forecast of launch opportunities by name
    • Consensus forecast based on most recent information
    • Individual inputs from operators used as available
    • Timing and likelihood of new opportunities agreed upon by panel
  • Develop Long-Term (2007-2013) Forecast
    • Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass categories
  • Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites included
    • Addressable satellites are defined as those open for internationally competitive launch service procurement
    • Historical launches occasionally restated if necessary
2004 survey
2004 Survey
  • Individual and comprehensive GSO inputs for 2004-2013
    • 26 survey responses received (two less than 2003)
    • 4 U.S. domestic companies provided comprehensive input
  • Survey of Factors Affecting Market Demand
    • 16 companies also responded to questions on how various factors affected their plans to procure new satellites
    • Response categories updated from 2003 questionnaire to broaden understanding of respondents’ opinions
2004 survey respondents
2004 Survey Respondents
  • AirTV (U.S.)+
  • Alcatel Space
  • Arianespace (France)
  • AsiaSat (China/Hong Kong)+
  • Astrium (France)
  • Binariang Satellite Systems (Malaysia)+
  • The Boeing Company* (U.S.)
  • DirecTV (U.S.)+
  • Inmarsat (U.K.)+
  • Intelsat (U.S.)+
  • JSAT Corporation (Japan)
  • Kistler* (U.S.)
  • KT Corporation (South Korea)+
  • Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co.* (U.S.)
  • Loral Skynet (U.S.)+
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan)
  • Mobile Broadcasting Corporation (Japan)+
  • Mobile Satellite Ventures (U.S.)+
  • New Skies Satellites (Netherlands)+
  • Orbital Sciences Corp. (U.S.)
  • PanAmSat (U.S.)+
  • Satmex (Mexico)+
  • Space Communications Corporation (Japan)+
  • Space Systems/Loral* (U.S.)
  • Telesat Canada+
  • Thuraya Telecommunications (U.A.E)+

+ = Provided input on factors affecting demand

* = Provided comprehensive input

2003 forecasted demand vs realization
2003 Forecasted Demand vs. Realization
  • Anticipated 2003 GSO demand was 22 satellites
  • Expected realization was 13 to 19 satellites
  • 14 launched and one accelerated from 2003, therefore
  • 15 commercial GSO satellites were launched in 2003
  • Of the 8 anticipated but not launched:
    • 6 satellites were delayed due to satellite issues
    • 1 satellite was delayed due to issues related to both the satellite and the launch vehicle
    • 1 satellite was delayed due to regulatory issues (export control)
2004 comstac commercial gso demand forecast and probable realization
2004 COMSTAC Commercial GSO Demand Forecast and Probable Realization

Realization bands are correctly bracketing actual launch experience

forecast trends in mass distribution
Forecast Trends in Mass Distribution

Forecast demand is lower in all weight classes, but the biggest drop was in the large 5,400kg+ class (from 51 to 35 over 10 years)

gso c ku ka transponders launched
GSO C/Ku/Ka Transponders Launched

Growth trend in transponders-per-satellite is expected to recover in 2004

gso satellite mass launched
GSO Satellite Mass Launched

Average satellite mass growth is expected to continue in 2004

historical demand forecast comparison
Historical Demand Forecast Comparison

2004 forecast demand is 9% lower than the 2003 forecast

factors affecting demand
Factors Affecting Demand
  • Global and regional economic conditions
    • Improving but with regional differences
    • New ventures still face extreme scrutiny
    • Transponder over-capacity has driven pricing down
  • New market applications
    • Direct-to-home applications are driving demand growth
    • Ka-band satellites are becoming a mainstay
  • High-speed terrestrial services
    • Significant fiber-optic cable bandwidth capacity in market
    • May lower demand for satellite-based data transfer
  • Data compression technology
  • Regulatory environment
  • New space hardware
summary of findings
Summary of Findings
  • 2004 COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast
    • Average satellite demand 2004-2013 = 21.1 per year
    • Near-term demand is 20 in 2004, 22 in 2005, and 16 in 2006
    • Expected realization:
      • 12-17 satellites in 2004
      • 16-20 satellites in 2005
      • 12-14 satellites in 2006
  • Average annual demand is down 9%
  • Transponders-per-satellite and mass-per-satellite launched continue to grow
  • Economic conditions and availability of financing continue to have a negative effect on market demand